Note these Dimebon HD results are just the publication of the top-line results first presented last year.
The only nugget in the paper that I don't think was mentioned last year was that the improvement on the MMSE was even better for the patients with more severe cognitive improvement (p=.008 in this post hoc subgroup analysis vs. p=.03 for the whole group). Note also fewer dropouts among the placebo group.
This top-line result when it first came out did give me some small amount of additional confidence that the drug wasn't just a Russian version of a placebo. But given the stock's substantial advance since then I've taken more than half off the table. The prostate drug should act as something of a backstop if the AD trial fails, but really I have no good feel for how the AD trial will come out - call it 50:50.
Here's a bearish analysis which amounts to "something doesn't smell right here:"
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