**October Analysis**
The initial run from the .10 level started on 9/2 (16 trading days before the Omnibus). We hit a high of .209 on 9/5. From there we retraced back to a low of .125.
Over the next 8 trading days or so we fought our way back up to the .15 - .16 range.
On 9/17 (6 trading days before Omnibus) we made a clean break over .20, and from there ran to .44 over 3 trading days.
Over the past 9 trading days we have sold off back to .20.
What we have seen here over the past 9 trading days is a magnified version of what happened after the first run. If you look at the chart you can see that people have simply been taking profits from the .20 - .44 run over this time period, in the same way they took them from .10 - .20 the first time.
The difference is that there was .20 worth of gains to sell through versus .10, so effectively almost double the time - which is just about right to where we are today.
We have two court hearings this month: 10/22, and 10/28.
10/22 is 14 trading days away (after today). Remember the initial run started 16 trading days from the 9/26 Omnibus.
So if this follows the same pattern, we could start moving north again today or Monday, have a little run, then retrace back to .20 - .22 or so.
Once we get near the 6 day timeframe from 10/22, that is when I believe you will start to see an even bigger move beginning. If we are based at .20 or higher we have the potential to break the .44 resistance level. There is going to be a lot of hype around that hearing, have no doubt.
The good news for this month is that we have an Omnibus right after that hearing. So the sell-off may not be as brutal, especially if the 4.4 Billion decision is in play.
We have a few wild cards possible:
- The Lehman ruling on 10/15, if that goes their way it will positively impact us. Negative ruling won't affect us, we'll be only 5 trading days from the 10/22 date.
- Judge Sleet. Could be negative, positive, or neutral. Meaning he could stop proceedings, or deny the appeal or do nothing. My bet is do nothing. In fact one of the hearings on this for him is 10/29... which is after the important dates for us.
- The SEC. I didn't like that article in the Post about halting BK stocks. Why I sleep at night is because they stated they need help from Congress. Good luck on that, lol. I believe it was simply more of a chest puffing because they can't explain why these stocks are running. We know the reason, but the SEC is a joke and won't even look into the actions presented by Mike in his article yesterday. Besides, they would have a hell of time halting a Chapter 11 company. Chapter 7 - maybe. Either way, I wouldn't mind staying under that radar until settlement.
- The media. I have no doubt these reporters calling this a zombie stock were told to spin it that way. If they looked into the 'real' story like Mike did, and had the balls to print it, they could win a Pulitzer someday. Right now, they would lose their jobs. If we run again be prepared for even worse articles about our stock.
- Settlement. Not going to happen until the 4.4 Billion is ruled on, and Discovery trial begins in my opinion. I agree with Mary's posts on Yahoo on this. But you just never know. Jamie could get a wild hair up his arse and just decide to end this. Highly doubtful, but could happen.
Again, 14 trading days until the 10/22 date. That ain't much folks. In regard to 3 day settlement of shares, thats about 4 cycles. Be careful if you are flipping here.
When I look at the chart from a macro viewpoint starting in March I still see an overall upward trend to $1+.
