Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

follylama -- re 'since the Nasdaq bubble burst -- which, of course, we survived, so we will certainly survive the current economic turmoil with just a little pain for a while...' -- I think that understates/misses things, considerably, in more than one way

the credit markets remain essentially seized up, forcing the whole economy to continue its (in particular recently, ever more rapid, i.e. still accelerating) contraction -- which seized-up credit markets, as a particular example in point right now, make impossible any semblance of any conventional Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization of GM and/or Chrysler -- the private-sector debtor-in-possession financing needed for any such simply is not out there to be had, at any price (and even if it were, the terms would, given the broader economic mess at present, inevitably be classic harsh/costly 'loan to own' from the get-go anyway)

this is far bigger and far worse than the dot-com bubble's bursting, and it ain't over by a long shot -- we still don't know how bad it's gonna get, or just how or when, or how long it's gonna last, or how exactly or when we're gonna be able to work our way out of it -- in particular if major portions of the automotive sector are soon suddenly shut down, triggering, beyond the additional direct impacts on top what's already happening, a whole new set of waves of multiplier 'ripple effect', the situation in at least a couple of the coming months will almost certainly fall into legitimately 'catastrophic' territory -- if indeed that's not already baked into the cake -- there is (more and more uglier and uglier) chatter out there, even assuming the automakers are kept alive -- of upcoming months with (perhaps well) over a million jobs lost in the month -- of e.g. the S&P 500 at 500 by mid-year -- of credit card issuers, acting in advance of the now more and more expected massive wave of consumer credit defaults, having just recently begun to reduce available credit lines by an initially-estimated $2 trillion (including sharply reducing credit lines available to even their best cardholders, and closing many accounts to any further use) -- and etc, and etc, and etc

re the equity markets, I hope it does prove to be the case that they've already set their lows -- but given what I make of what I'm seeing out there I can't help but think they most likely haven't, and could end up ultimately setting lows conceivably well below what we've seen thus far

just to note the point, not to be whatever about it, just saying -- millions in this country have already been through and continue to endure (far) more than just a little pain thanks to all this, with still (and right now rapidly) increasing numbers joining their ranks every day -- and many millions more just a couple of paychecks (or some remaining savings or available credit, or an unexpected [medical] need/expense) away

this is not business cycle as usual -- this is big-time outlier, magnitude, reach and complexity unprecedented, still not fully manifest or apprehended -- we remain firmly stuck in a singularity, in sharpest relief in the still seized-up credit markets, that we have not yet brought under control or remedied and that otherwise shows no sign yet of having come anywhere close to playing itself out on its own

that singularity continues to wreak increasingly both widespread and severe damage, both to capital and labor, to business and people, and not only to shorter-term economic activity/prospects but also to the the fundamentals of our economy's, our entire nation's, very structure, assets and strengths, resources and capabilities, wealth and power -- beyond a point we have since left behind, that starts to become damage that cannot and will not simply be undone once/whenever/just because the credit markets have been brought back to some semblance of normal function -- in this respect, an economy such as ours, starved of credit (as it has been for months now), is not all that unlike an initially fully-functioning human brain starved of oxygen -- there's only so much time to remedy/stabilize the situation before effects begin to become irreversible -- in terms of our economy, we've already crossed that threshold, and we're still groping to define, let alone effectively implement, an adequate remedy that will lead to a stabilization, even as the condition continues to progress and the damage it's causing continues to spread and worsen

reference:

(items linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32369566 and preceding and following

(items linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34165446 and preceding and (upcoming) following