"Final" notes ...
I commented / replied to all relevant posts during the last 2 weeks ... but I will not follow the board anymore since most of the posts are over my paygrade ...
US:
- It gone ... not tomorrow but within a foreseeable future (2022 ... but definitely by 2023/24)
- best case: they could find a solution (authorized generic, cooperation with a generic, etc) that will cover the cost of base / general operation
(see more below)
EU:
- It is not a question of what but when ... it will be approved (most / majority of drugs have to go through all - 3 - phases of the approval process ... opinion after 180 days is not a standard). It is on track, nothing wrong with the process.
- GIA vs partnership vs BO: the best is the highest value ... it could be GIA (if partnership / BO scenario provide less value than the GIA). I am 101+ sure it will be (was?) decided based on numbers and not by emotion
- Meanwhile EU is more complex (as approval / launch) than US ... it is simpler than US (after launch / reimbursement agreements)
- V could be launched without reimbursement agreement (eg. in Germany) and secure the reimbursement after the launch
- The governments will not allocate a given fund for V but a given reimbursement % ... revenue will not be limited by the governments
China: Earliest launch end of 2021 ... but more likely 2022
Middle East / North Africa: "interesting" ... three approvals, two launch after 4 years ... more likely will not be a relevant item
Row (S/M America, Russia, etc.): More likely looking for a best partnership / BO offer ... will be decided after (with?) EU launch
Management / BoD / Co: Are they the best? No. Are they the worst? No.
Most critics are hindsight or based on lack of experience ... (It is amazing what type of info are requested by shareholders, what some thinks should be shared / released by the Co.).
All together ... but first of all:
The Co value is equal with regulatory exclusivity (e.g. 10 yrs in the EU till 2031) nothing more (except some "special" cases ... e.g. EU could worth an additional 3-4 yrs IF the patents will NOT be extended till 2039. I think generics will not challenge R-IT patents for 2-3 yrs but will for 9 yrs.)
R-IT patents will be invalidated based on JELIS "before" the case will be filed ... A lot of us seen R-IT result obvious based on our DD / JELIS.
More likely the Co will be GIA forever unless somebody will make an offer but it is a coin flip.
If an offer will be made I expect something like $3B ... something below $4B ...
It could be a speculative play @ $2.50/3.00 but could not be a strategic investment.
Good luck to you if you still hold ... If I were you I would sell the next "jump" ... "anything above $"4.50" ... if it will be "available" ...
Best,
G
Disclosure: I wrote this post myself, and it expresses my own opinions (IMHO). I am not receiving compensation for it.
