:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | November 10, 2018
Analysis for the Week of November 12, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 9, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 120860 immediately is trading down about 7.69% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 10 days, since the high established Fri. Oct. 26, 2018 following the high established Wed. Nov. 7, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are coming into play with silver due ideally the week of 0/0 followed by the gold target due the week of 0/0. Up to now, we have been rallying in this market from the previous low made the week of December 30th at 17050 with a reaction low just made the week of January 1st testing support at 120720.
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2019, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 130930 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 15% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 121240 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 119590. This provides a 1.36% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 120860, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.
A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 124600 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 124600 to 118600. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 123780. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 22nd at 124600, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 121340. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 124600, which was created during the week of October 22nd. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th. However, we still remain above key support 118810 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August, and only a break of 118430 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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