NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | November 4, 2018
Analysis for the Week of November 05, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Thu. Nov. 1, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 123860 immediately is trading down about 5.39% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Wed. Oct. 31, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are coming into play with silver due ideally the week of 0/0 followed by the gold target due the week of the week of . Up to now, we were declining in this market from the previous high was made the week of December 30th for the past 4 weeks with a retest of of the upside the week of October 22nd testing resistance at 124600.
On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is clearly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. However, we also have a directional change due in 2019, which means we should keep an eye on that target ahead. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 130930 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2021 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2022 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2021. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030.
---------------------------------------------- RARE SUPER POSITION EVENT
We have elected a short-term Weekly Bullish Reversal. However, we have also elected a Long-Term Bearish Reversal in a Superposition Event warning that this may prove to be a high that should hold for now. ----------------------------------------------
This market on the quarterly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during the Fourth Quarter 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during the Third Quarter 2016 which provided the decline into during the Third Quarter 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during the Third Quarter 2018. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 126700 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 121660. This provides a 3.97% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 132640 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 119440. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.95%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 123860, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.24% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 124600 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 124600 to 118600. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 122610.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 22nd at 124600, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 13th. So far, this week is has moved to the downside penetrating last week's low of 122280 reaching 121340. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 22nd reaching 124600 has exceeded the previous high of 121800 made back during the week of September 10th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 122040 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 124600, which was created during the week of October 22nd.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 4 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 116270, which formed during August, and only a break of 118430 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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