LadRx Corp (LADXD)

[PlentyParanoid]

Some answers to knoxlube

I have been long on aldox since it was above 2.70 or 16.20 current split. Not happy. You asked my thoughts:

A. aldox is superior to doxorubicin both in efficacy and safety. That has been proven regardless what AF says.
B. Currently aldox is the most potent treatment for second line leiomyo- and liposarcoma when measured by PFS, over 5 months, or ORR, above 10 %. The vaunted Votrient's PFS medians of 4.6 months are mirages produced by assessment timing bias, real PFS medians for V are below 4 months, even GSK admits it in their internal documentation (section 6.1.1.4,pages 69 - 71) Trabectedin's median for PFS is about 4.0 months and eribulin's PFS median and ORR are laughable. Only eribulin's median OS in liposarcoma is statistically superior to currently known OS for aldoxorubicin.

A and B are enough for aldox approval for STS. Again, regardless what AF says. BTW: AF has never done the comparison above. Why?

But, aldox might not ever be high multiple billion seller. Here's why:

A. for aldox alone improvement over dox is not large enough to justify price much beyond that of Doxil. If NantCell gets greedy, practitioners will stay with dox.

B. The future of aldox is in combinations with drugs like olaratumab (ola+dox is approved for STS 1st line) and possibly PharmaMar's lurbinectedin (currently in PIII for SCLC with, guess what, yes, with doxorubicin). But even in these combinations the pricing power will be with newer drugs. Olaratumab is currently priced about about 17000 USD per month of treatment. That kind of pricing puts a hard upper limit on how much payers would tolerate for aldox in this combo when doxorubicin fetches about 300 USD per month. Same logic applies to whatever NantCell plans for breast cancer and glioblastoma.

However, I still see aldoxorubicin future sales in 1.5 to 3 billion range. Not bad. That would mean 100 to 200 million USD per year for CytRx. with 15 million share that would be income around 10 dollars per share. Multiply that by typical biopharma cap/sales ratio of 5 or 6. Nice share price is possible.

About CytRx. The future is with linker technology. If they manage to make something equivalent to or more potent than calicheamicin safe to administer but still effective then ...