Saturday, October 07, 2017 6:17:22 PM
Here’s What Happens if Trump Really Decides to Decertify the Iran Deal
"The Real Test of the Iran Deal"
It seems that the ball is now in Congress' court.
By Elena Chachko
October 6, 2017 - 6:24 pm
[...]
However, the Washington Post report makes it clear that no final decisions have been made at this point. It also indicates that even if Trump decertified the agreement, he would “hold off on recommending that Congress reimpose sanctions.” This caveat suggests that decertification might not immediately lead to the reinstatement of U.S. nuclear sanctions against Iran. Additional measures, either congressional or executive, would be necessary to actually reimpose sanctions.
[...]
What happens if Trump decertifies?
If President Trump really does decertify the JCPOA, he would probably trigger major political and diplomatic blowback from the other parties to the agreement and perhaps more importantly, from Iran. The mere prospect of decertification has already provoked statements from multiple parties to the JCPOA urging the U.S. to continue implementing the agreement.
However, decertification would have no automatic consequences in terms of U.S. implementation of the agreement with respect to the continued suspension of sanctions that had been waived or rescinded under the JCPOA. In order to have such an effect, decertification must be accompanied by measures to reimpose sanctions.
[...]
Decertification without reintroducing sanctions would allow the administration to express its dissatisfaction with the terms of the JCPOA for political gain while preserving the core of the agreement and providing an incentive for Iran to continue meeting its nuclear obligations. (Unless, of course, Congress moves to reinstate sanctions in response to the president’s decertification of the JCPOA.) The move might also intend to create leverage for potential renegotiation of the JCPOA, although there seems to be no appetite for that among the other parties to the agreement. In any event, it seems that the ball is now in Congress’ court.
Photo credit: NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images
With links: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/06/heres-what-happens-if-trump-really-decides-to-decertify-the-iran-deal/
Bottom line (the first two are from the post this one replies to):
“What’s your better idea?” is a challenge any honest opponent must accept. If this deal fails—which means, if the U.S. Congress rejects an agreement that the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran have accepted—then something else will happen, and all known “somethings” involve faster Iranian progress toward a bomb.
On historical judgment, I said that for two reasons the supporters of the deal should get the benefit of the doubt. The short-term reason is that nearly everyone who in 2015 is alarmist about Iran was in 2002 alarmist about Iraq. You can find exceptions, but only a few. That doesn’t prove that today’s alarmists are wrong, but in any other realm it would count. The longer-term reason is that the history of controversial diplomatic agreements through the past century shows that those recommending “risks for peace” have more often proven right than their opponents. (Don’t believe me? Go back .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/ .. and consider the past examples.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/the-iran-debate-moves-on/399713/
and
Trump’s case against the Iran nuclear deal has very little to do with nuclear weapons
“It makes him feel like a cuck every 90 days.”
Updated by Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Sep 13, 2017, 2:30pm EDT
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/9/13/16301160/trump-iran-deal-why-cancel
So there is Obamacare, which Trump has described as a disaster from the start
without mentioning the fact that Republicans had sabotaged it from it's first day,
How the G.O.P. Sabotaged Obamacare
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134174329 .
and still are
Trump Administration Rolls Back Birth Control Mandate
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135217226 .
That's Obamacare, on which ideologically and politically 'repeal-and-replace fixated Republicans refuse to follow the reasonable and rational road of
TRUMP SAYS HE CALLED SCHUMER TO BROKER DEAL WITH DEMOCRATS FOR "A GREAT HEALTHCARE BILL"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135217226
fixing. After some 7 years they have no better alternative.
And we have the Iran deal which which Trump has described as the worst deal
ever, yet he and the Republicans have no better alternative for that one either.
Some build on positives of past administrations. Today it's basically seek out and destroy.
"The Real Test of the Iran Deal"
It seems that the ball is now in Congress' court.
By Elena Chachko
October 6, 2017 - 6:24 pm
[...]
However, the Washington Post report makes it clear that no final decisions have been made at this point. It also indicates that even if Trump decertified the agreement, he would “hold off on recommending that Congress reimpose sanctions.” This caveat suggests that decertification might not immediately lead to the reinstatement of U.S. nuclear sanctions against Iran. Additional measures, either congressional or executive, would be necessary to actually reimpose sanctions.
[...]
What happens if Trump decertifies?
If President Trump really does decertify the JCPOA, he would probably trigger major political and diplomatic blowback from the other parties to the agreement and perhaps more importantly, from Iran. The mere prospect of decertification has already provoked statements from multiple parties to the JCPOA urging the U.S. to continue implementing the agreement.
However, decertification would have no automatic consequences in terms of U.S. implementation of the agreement with respect to the continued suspension of sanctions that had been waived or rescinded under the JCPOA. In order to have such an effect, decertification must be accompanied by measures to reimpose sanctions.
[...]
Decertification without reintroducing sanctions would allow the administration to express its dissatisfaction with the terms of the JCPOA for political gain while preserving the core of the agreement and providing an incentive for Iran to continue meeting its nuclear obligations. (Unless, of course, Congress moves to reinstate sanctions in response to the president’s decertification of the JCPOA.) The move might also intend to create leverage for potential renegotiation of the JCPOA, although there seems to be no appetite for that among the other parties to the agreement. In any event, it seems that the ball is now in Congress’ court.
Photo credit: NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images
With links: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/06/heres-what-happens-if-trump-really-decides-to-decertify-the-iran-deal/
Bottom line (the first two are from the post this one replies to):
“What’s your better idea?” is a challenge any honest opponent must accept. If this deal fails—which means, if the U.S. Congress rejects an agreement that the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran have accepted—then something else will happen, and all known “somethings” involve faster Iranian progress toward a bomb.
On historical judgment, I said that for two reasons the supporters of the deal should get the benefit of the doubt. The short-term reason is that nearly everyone who in 2015 is alarmist about Iran was in 2002 alarmist about Iraq. You can find exceptions, but only a few. That doesn’t prove that today’s alarmists are wrong, but in any other realm it would count. The longer-term reason is that the history of controversial diplomatic agreements through the past century shows that those recommending “risks for peace” have more often proven right than their opponents. (Don’t believe me? Go back .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/ .. and consider the past examples.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/the-iran-debate-moves-on/399713/
and
Trump’s case against the Iran nuclear deal has very little to do with nuclear weapons
“It makes him feel like a cuck every 90 days.”
Updated by Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Sep 13, 2017, 2:30pm EDT
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/9/13/16301160/trump-iran-deal-why-cancel
So there is Obamacare, which Trump has described as a disaster from the start
without mentioning the fact that Republicans had sabotaged it from it's first day,
How the G.O.P. Sabotaged Obamacare
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=134174329 .
and still are
Trump Administration Rolls Back Birth Control Mandate
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135217226 .
That's Obamacare, on which ideologically and politically 'repeal-and-replace fixated Republicans refuse to follow the reasonable and rational road of
TRUMP SAYS HE CALLED SCHUMER TO BROKER DEAL WITH DEMOCRATS FOR "A GREAT HEALTHCARE BILL"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135217226
fixing. After some 7 years they have no better alternative.
And we have the Iran deal which which Trump has described as the worst deal
ever, yet he and the Republicans have no better alternative for that one either.
Some build on positives of past administrations. Today it's basically seek out and destroy.
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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