NY Crude Oil Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | September 30, 2017
Analysis for the Week of October 2, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Sep. 29, 2017: The market is in a neutral position for right now. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 5179 and 5169. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 5127 and 5160. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5043 during August. We have now to exceed that level during September implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 4558 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 4376 becomes possible.
NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 5167 so far is trading down about 3.81% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend following the high established Thu. Sep. 28, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 5243. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 5143
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 25th at 5286, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a significant move of 15% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 25th has exceeded the previous high of 5043 made back during the week of July 31st. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 2 months.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Critically, my broader investigation analysis recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Aiming on the immediate trend remains bullish since August made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is suggesting to pay close attention since last month had closed lower so the downward momentum has subsided and we may have a near term shift in trend. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 9/25 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 14 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5286, which was created during the week of September 25th. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 7 months. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. However, we still remain above key support 4663 on a closing basis.
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