Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

I'm expecting a distribution of at least 60¢ because the hurricanes assured expanded sales;also, the crack spread has broadened considerably. Too, asphalt utilization has emerged with more profit orientation anticipated. Heretofore, ALDW was expected to earn 10% of its quarterly earnings thru alphalt but that's now been revised upwards to 15%. I could believe the revision may be conservative given hurricane related road damages.

Then, too, there's the fact that the next payout will reflect not only the biggest driving season but also one representing record milage driven.

We also want to keep in mind that ALDW has been an almost blemish-free reliable payer. CVRR hasn't kept up nor CLMT. I expect an increasingly broader investor base for all of these reasons.

For these reasons I won't trade my units. I find no case for risking a misjudgment when I sense it's going to reward me beautifully so long as I stick with what I perceive as fairly assured.

ALDW is nicely ahead and NGL is rapidly rebalancing, too. Either one of these will pull me out of negative territory YTD; both may prove to be an unstoppable force. This is why I have concentrated most of my portfolio cash on these two.