Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

You might keep looking over your shoulder as there's little certainty when it comes to trading patterns regardless of what TA bulls will insist.

I expected today would be a downer---the No. Korean effect that gripped nations overseas had to hit us here, too. Couple that with huge gains in ALDW over the last week and it's obvious conditions were ripe for a downer.

However, and it's a big however at that---the closer we draw towards the next day of guidance, the more ALDW will benefit by way of p[rice stabilization. Folks are going to be streaming into our pick in a quest for what could well be north of a 70 cent distribution.

My eyes are looking a week back and then at today's price. This approach reminds me of where we've been. From there we try to project where we go to next. I could believe we'll drop to $11 or even slightly beneath but we can't stay there for long as common sense tells us distribution hunters will be jumping on board for the distribution capture.

So far, given the No. Korean situation plus weather-related events, I'm not seeing much else that stands to upset our more normal trajectory. And geopolitical issues won't strain our domestic refinery utilization greatly. So I say we'll be just fine, whatever a "new normal" definition of fine might be.