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Tuesday, August 15, 2017 2:00:16 PM
Keep Track of Futures Positioning With The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report
By Bespoke | August 15, 2017
Speculator shorts are deducted from speculator longs to give a “net” position. To summarize that positioning, the table below shows the current share of open interest (OI) along with the median, average, and ten year percentile. We also show the change over the last 1, 4, 12, and 52 weeks, and show the position relative to the 10-year average in standard deviations in the scatter plot to the right as well as the change over the last 12 weeks. The result is a comprehensive picture of how various asset classes are positioned.
Positioning can be a very helpful contrarian indicator; when financial speculators pile on to a rising price and become an unbalanced long, there’s nobody left to buy and prices are left vulnerable to a correction. This type of positioning is highlighted when the dots in our scatter plot move further and further into the green zone. The opposite is also true for futures markets with falling prices. When the dot in our scatter plot moves further and further left, speculators have become excessively bearish relative to history. While not comprehensive – because they ignore spot markets for financial and physical commodities – the CoT report is definitely a helpful pointer to how the market currently sits.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/keep-track-of-futures-positioning-with-the-closer/
• DiscoverGold
By Bespoke | August 15, 2017
Speculator shorts are deducted from speculator longs to give a “net” position. To summarize that positioning, the table below shows the current share of open interest (OI) along with the median, average, and ten year percentile. We also show the change over the last 1, 4, 12, and 52 weeks, and show the position relative to the 10-year average in standard deviations in the scatter plot to the right as well as the change over the last 12 weeks. The result is a comprehensive picture of how various asset classes are positioned.
Positioning can be a very helpful contrarian indicator; when financial speculators pile on to a rising price and become an unbalanced long, there’s nobody left to buy and prices are left vulnerable to a correction. This type of positioning is highlighted when the dots in our scatter plot move further and further into the green zone. The opposite is also true for futures markets with falling prices. When the dot in our scatter plot moves further and further left, speculators have become excessively bearish relative to history. While not comprehensive – because they ignore spot markets for financial and physical commodities – the CoT report is definitely a helpful pointer to how the market currently sits.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/keep-track-of-futures-positioning-with-the-closer/
• DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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