With a number of geopolitical issues to be handled, there's going to be a lot of uncertainty affecting the stock market and, specifically, NGL. Without going into specifics right now, let me suggest that we refrain from adding to positions until there's real evidence to support our having reached a true bottom.
In a note to a close friend and confidante, I suggested we expect $9.30/unit if not lower. We're talking about any time within the next month or longer. We have entered the inter-quarter zone no longer bounded by guaranteed distributions as we just got paid for Q2. Over the next 6-8 weeks or so, we should expect units to drift lower and then resume their upward bias as we edge closer to guidance for Q3 and then the actual payout. Between then and now, however, is only a gambler's game. Some will attempt to play it but I don't have time for games so I won't be part of it.
The important thing here is to recognize the importance of patience as the friend (above) mentioned. Equally important is that MLPs typically lose balance for 6-8 weeks following a payout for units will gather only dust between then and guidance yet to come. But there is a caveat:
We want to claim our ownership rights before guidance and IN PARTICULER--- before everybody else jumps on board so as to hoard new units in order to gain a foothold on the next quarter. This is especially the case if investors recognize the longer term opportunity at hand.
Put me in that latter group. I definitely do recognize the opportunity we have! And I am in $$ position to be adding units. However, I don't expect to do so until such time as I find units approaching some sort of recognizable bottom. If units can be had for less than $9, of course I'll grab what I can. But ruling out the obviously absurd possibility, I'm prepared to wait and wait and then some, as necessary.
You'll be hearing much the same sort of thing from me regarding ALDW.
One thing is for dead sure certain:
Globally impacting issues should not be interfering our business plans in the least for these two companies are not involved with Asian or European politics. Our MLPs draw from domestic resources and we sell to domestic markets. We are far more autonomously oriented than some may realize. Whatever happens overseas shouldn't impact on us.
In short, then--- knowing your investments means understanding their business objectives and also their markets and market strategies. Don't be pushed around because of media hype and hubbub as it means next to nothing in terms of affecting our bottom lines.
The lone justification for concern would be in the form of currency matters as in "What happens if creditor nations suddenly demand payment from our country?"
As it happens, every country on this Earth faces the same issue so I see little point in trying to reconcile things that remain unsolvable.
Happy hunting!
