NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis By Marty Armstrong | August 5, 2017
Analysis for the Week of August 07, 2017
NY Gold Nearest Futures AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 4, 2017: The next target for a turning point appears to develop come September in NY Gold Nearest Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring our attention. The key week ahead for a turning point is 8/7. Last month produced a low at 120400 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 127080 to 120400. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1976 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 35 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Aug. 4, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral posture near-term for now on the daily level. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 126130 and is trading up about 9.51% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 125670 following the high established Wed. Aug. 2, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 5th at 129880, which was up 25 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of July 10th, which has been a move of 5.91% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 7 months.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 112430 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 135770 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Evidently, my broader-term analysis recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Exploring the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of July 24th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 7/31 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 weeks. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 129880, which was created during the week of June 5th. However, we still remain below key resistance 126500 on a closing basis. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 129880, which was created during June. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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