"Market Realist" is an analytics company to be found at Yahoo! and probably many other venues. Combing through news items touching my holdings, I found the Market Realist had posted a piece examining potential distributions pending. Three companies are mentioned but inasmuch as I do not follow the third, I'll mention only CVRR and ALDW.
CVRR is not a company in which I'm presently invested so for that reason let me refer readers here to the CVRR board as I just posted there.
ALDW is pointed out for its having paid distributions for the past several quarters. Also brought up is that the most recent quarter paid 38 cents, this---following the previous quarter's payout of 15 cents. I'll add that this company paid 14 cents previously and 11 before that. In addition, the article reminds us that management at ALDW is on record as having stated bluntly that they believe the string of distributions is sustainable.
Now, that shouldn't be interpreted as implying that the previous quarter's distribution amount is now forthcoming, merely that there should not be concern regarding the cash flow sustainability issue.
The piece at Yahoo! includes a chart (bar style) pointing to each of the three companies in terms of profitability. They point to the major impact of RINs on a bottom line but also seem to recognize that ALDW has managed to not only create decent cash flow but has also seen fit to increase the payout.
The takeaway from this could be that ALDW will likely pay a quarterly amount duplicating the prior quarter's distribution if we're to accept the article's inference. By the same token, if we were to base a conclusion on solely the chart, then we might see a 50 cent distribution in a Summer-like Christmas stocking.
I personally do not like to predict things beyond my control to guarantee. Should we receive 25 cents, I'll be happy with my payday. Better still would be 40 cents and I'd have no problem accepting 60 cents or greater.
For what is probably the umpteenth occasion I will state that I'm not in this for the distributions. I predict there will be a significant piling on of new investors---IF THE NEXT DISTRIBUTION IS HIGHER than those in recent memory. This will unleash at least part of the compression lurking within the stock and could account for a very significant rise in overall valuation. I maintain it is currently greatly oversold.
As a committed unit holder, I have 25,000 units in tow as of this writing. Without dry powder and being unwilling to let go of any of my holdings, those 25,000 units will stick around through the rest of this year for certain. I have never been more certain of the underlying value within this particular holding. And it is my largest single holding.
Happy hunting!
P.S. I just looked at my ALDW holdings and find they are worth about $275,000. About $70,000 is profit sitting there. For what it's worth, just three years or so ago, my entire portfolio was worth less than this one position in ALDW as it stands today! It is amazing to me that so many investors don't understand how to create unusual wealth. It isn't by playing things conservatively---it is by taking chances. If I should be swallowed up by MR. Market and come up very short in this holding, so be it. But with so much on the line, I'm ready to take my chances.
AI
