i follow prasad on twitter. although his style is loud and can turn off some people, he does have a point about the lack of follow up data , especially in oncology, where the financial stakes are high.
it seems to me now perhaps with the new "fda" , aka lower bars, the payers will be the gaters. which imo makes it harder for a petty speculator like myself to make a profit in "biotech values" lol.
at least, with the "old" fda, i can read the p2 data and handicap the chance(s) of success for p3s based on my own ability supported by other cognoscenti remarks. at least i can tell who knows and who doesn't lol.
most of the time, with "biotech values" in the past, i bet on p3 outcomes for companies that i consider to be legit.
like enta, for ex. i had a big stake, around 75K sh, leading up to their p3s in 2013-2014 and made a lot of money when the results came out. i avoided betting on the actual sales revenues and thus sold at a reasonable level near the top. it is impossible for pikers like myself to get a realistic sales estimate.
when the time comes when the little edge i have disappear due to a different regulatory environment, i will stop betting on individual companies. and i foresee such a time a coming, perhaps sooner than people expect.
