NY Silver COMEX Futures By Marty Armstrong | July 22, 2017
Analysis for the Week of July 24, 2017
NY Silver COMEX Futures ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 21, 2017: We should expect to see the next turning point on our monthly models arrive September in NY Silver COMEX Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday as we move forward. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/17. Last month produced a high at 177450 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 177450 to 162250. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1965 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 46 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Jul. 21, 2017, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high with a rally for the past 5 days with technical resistance at 169340. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 164570 and is trading up about 2.92% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. So far, we have been trading up for the past 5 days since the key low made on Fri. Jul. 14, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 10th at 151450, which was down 12 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 17th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of July 10th, which has been a move of 8.49% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 6 months.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 212250 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 154340 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 156750 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 202360 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Prospectively, my longstanding view outlook recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming at this time. We have elected a Yearly Bearish Reversal from the major high of 2011 suggesting that we have entered a change in long-term trend. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2016 or as far out as 2024 in real terms adjusted for inflation. To accomplish an extended decline of this nature requires penetrating beneath 83000 on an annual closing basis. However, it appears to be unlikely given the fact that the market is still trading 39% above key support. Therefore, with this view in mind, we will focus on a low forming in 2016 for now.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011.
Eyeballing the immediate momentum is Bearish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of July 10th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 7/17 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 177450, which was created during the week of June 5th. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain above key support 164100 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 months. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 136200, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 159350 on a closing basis.
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