With guidance for the past quarter slated for release in seven trading days on next Friday, the 28th--- there will be games played. Withstand them as in "ignore," and you'll retain your seat on the gravy train. Yield to the games yet to be played and you'll not only shoot yourself in the foot of prosperity, you'll find yourself riddled with an Ache of ills He of corporate guidance lustfully pursues in the hopes of eliminating.
That's a drawn out pun just above. Ask me for help if necessary.
With a week or so left, power hungry souls will be scrambling for last-minute opportunities to scare the crap out of us longs. Part of the problem is that RINs have zoomed much higher and now are positioned to exert a major influence on the refiner's bottom line. This is an absolute that none of us can or should ignore. Then again, those among us in it for the longer run will cast aside considerations for near term distributions, knowing full well that the real money to be made will be through capital appreciation.
There was a time when long-term holds were the way to go. Now we march to a different drummer, knowing full well that there are variables everywhere, ranging from politics to geopolitical moves to wars and all manner of those seeking greater creature comforts extending beyond the realm of pure-play money grabs. So we must be very sharp right now.
When I began this note of caution, we were up by a penny. When I was called away for ranching duties, I saw a gain of 15 cents. And now, back at the keyboard, it's up by 22 cents. Everybody knows this is prime time to cut and run if you're in it for a few pennies. And if the powers that be can frighten the retail group effectively enough, volume will spike higher and the spread will broaden.
And now, mere moments away from above, I see we're up 29 cents. All this on 4,612 units traded in the first 75 minutes of trading?
C'mon, now! This is nuts. I hope you all see it for what it is.
Hang tight! The distribution won't be huge because of the RINs but even 15 cents annualized is greater than 5 1/2%. That's not so bad for a pick we have great reason to believe will soar by year's end.
Enjoy the day, the games and most of all---your very own courage and wisdom that brung you to this dance.
