NY Silver COMEX Futures By Marty Armstrong | July 8, 2017
Analysis for the Week of July 10, 2017
The next target for a turning point appears to develop come August in NY Silver COMEX Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring our attention. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/3. Last month produced a high at 177450 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 177450 to 162250. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1965 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 46 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Jul. 7, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral posture near-term for now on the daily level, but we are still above the previous month's low. NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 154250 so far is trading down about 3.52% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 17 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 23 days, since the high established Tue. Jun. 6, 2017 following the high established Wed. Jun. 14, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 17th at 186550, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 19th. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks from the high of the week of June 5th, which has been a significant move of 19% percent. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 5th reaching 177450 has failed to exceed the previous high of 186550 made back during the week of April 17th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past week. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 11 weeks overall. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 6 months. However, we are trading below last month's low of 162250, warning that a month-end closing beneath this level will signal a reversal of trend to the downside is starting to unfold.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 212250 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 154340 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 156750 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 202360 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Broadly, my long-term view prospective recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming at this time. . Keep in mind this is just a trading recommendation but only a trading rule. Buy or sell signals take splace on Reversals and Cycles. We have elected a Yearly Bearish Reversal from the major high of 2011 suggesting that we have entered a change in long-term trend. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2016 or as far out as 2024 in real terms adjusted for inflation. To accomplish an extended decline of this nature requires penetrating beneath 83000 on an annual closing basis. However, it appears to be unlikely given the fact that the market is still trading 39% above key support. Therefore, with this view in mind, we will focus on a low forming in 2016 for now.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011.
Directing our attention to the immediate trend remains bearish since June made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 7/3 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 177450, which was created during the week of June 5th. The last weekly level low was 160600, which formed during the week of May 8th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 164100 above the market. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 months. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 136200, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 159350 on a closing basis.
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