:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures By Marty Armstrong | July 8, 2017
Analysis for the Week of July 10, 2017
We should see a turning point on the monthly level come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring our diligence. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/10. Last month produced a high at 129880 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 129880 to 123650. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1976 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 35 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Jul. 7, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral posture near-term for now on the daily level, but we are still above the previous month's low. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 120970 and is trading up about 5.03% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 10 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 23 days, since the high established Tue. Jun. 6, 2017 following the high established Fri. Jun. 23, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 5th at 129880, which was up 25 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks from the high of the week of June 5th, which has been a sharp move of 7.09% percent. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 5th has exceeded the previous high of 129740 made back during the week of April 17th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 112430 made the week of December 12th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains in a bearish mode right now warranting caution. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 11 weeks overall.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my long-term view expectancy recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018.
So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 130790 level at this time.
Eyeballing the immediate trend remains bearish since June made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 7/3 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 129880, which was created during the week of June 5th. The last weekly level low was 112430, which formed during the week of December 12th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 122680 above the market. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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