You've just nailed it, in my opinion!
I want 200 more units so bad I can taste them through my elbow and believe me, that's quit/quiet/quite unusual. Those 200 more will even things out for me at 25,000 units. I have no idea why I'm so fixed on that number but if it works, so be it. However, I'm unwilling to spring for an unreasonable purchase price as I'm so darned convinced we're heading lower before trudging higher leading up towards the ex-D day and guidance regarding Q2 results. It's definitely an ego thing as any overage I might pay if I bought now couldn't meaningfully impact my overall cost basis.
So I'm waiting. And yes, Pete807, I also notice that ALDW charges out of the gate daily, diving routinely, only to recover a few hours later. I think this is preplanned, a design to encourage concern on the part of longs, bringing them to wonder: "Maybe this isn't such a good idea as in a sure thing?"
Obviously I'm not buying into it. Something else I'm not buying into:
We've seen how RINs can impact on the bottom line, right? And we recall that Carl Icahn's appointment was expected to bring about very important changes with respect to blending requirements and/or placing the burden of blending on the shoulders of refiners, including the smaller refiners in particular. The public figured CVRR and ALDW would rise so strongly on the heels of Icahn & Trump that nobody could possibly trump kicking the cahn... not I, anyhow.
It's not happened and with Maestro Carl distracted by all manner of legal issues surrounding his appointment and ties to CVRR, I don't think this RINs issue is going to dissolve any time soon if ever. That tells me things will have to slog along, thanks to excellent management practices and continuing cheap gasoline and a generally happy society.
Q2's distribution I'd earlier thought to come in at the 60 cent range but I'm now thinking 25 cents may be the top. RINs had plummeted when Icahn was appointed with everybody assuming RINs was just another way of hamstringing refiners. The bottom line effect now should be more severe and not slanted in a positive manner.
Still, when all is said and done---ALDW has not disappointed over the past several quarters when it comes to handing out distributions. Too, my longer term objective is not in distributions but in capital appreciation. And with that, I'm now seeing that we've reversed the early morning dip and are six cents to the plus side.
Nice!
