Tuesday, June 27, 2017 4:32:15 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/23 2017 EOD
I remain thinking near-term weakness most likely as we are within a descending channel and a down-leg within that.
NOTE: It seems the Russell re-balancing had some effect on us as we had a 64K+ closing trade that dramatically skewed most metrics. I'll be using 15:59's readings for analysis although I will also be showing the 16:00 and AH trade readings. The closing block size makes me think some portfolio manager was doing a little early "Window Dressing". It was 64,660 block trade for $0.65 which was ~51.58% of the day's volume and below the rest of the day's range of $0.6555-$0.6900. As mentioned below, sans that trade, because it's likely not a short sale, we can assume the intra-day short percentage to be about double the print, or ~48%.
BTW, today was also Russell indexes re-balancing day. I guess this could have been related somehow, but I can't envision how.
Today was open low, bounce up to the high by about 10:10, go a long extremely low/no-volume sideways and in the last 45 minutes tank to end the day with that ~65K closing trade at $0.65, the low of the day.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 600:500 $0.6108/$0.73.
09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 2,314 sell for $0.67 & $0.67 x 35, x 2616. B/a just after open was 8.4K:7.9K $0.67/9. Then came 9:32's b/a 6.6K:8K $0.67/9, 9:32's 300 $0.6721, 9:34's 100 $0.69, 9:39's 1K $0.6700 (200)/1, 9:42's 200 $0.6788, 9:43's 100 $0.69, 9:49's b/a 6.7K:7.7K $0.67/9, 9:49's 5.9K $0.6711 (1K)/00 (200)/23/00 (1.6K)/01 (500)/$0.69 (2K)/$0.6701 (400). The period ended on 9:51's 200 $0.69.
09:52-11:25 during the initial six no-trades minutes had 9:54's b/a of 6.7K:7.5K $0.67/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6811/$0.69, with very slowly rising lows and more slowly falling highs, on 9:58's 100 $0.69. No trades 09:59-10:30. B/a at 10:05 was 398:7.4K $0.6702/$0.69, 10:22 598:700 $0.6800/99, 10:39 598:721 $0.6800/97, 10:47 779:200 $0.6816/97, 11:03 200:200 $0.6881/97 (bids rising), 11:17 300:200 $0.6896/7. The period ended on 11:25's 1K $0.6895 (500)/96.
11:26-15:19 did a drop on 11:26's 585 $0.6895/02 (200) and began extremely low/no-volume $0.6801/31, with slowly rising lows. B/a at 11:33 was 438:7.6K $0.6802/$0.69, 11:56 36:91 $0.6802/98 (b/a backed by presented 100:100 $0.6801/99). Price was interrupted by 11:59's 400 $0.6899/$0.69/$0.6802. B/a at 12:03 was 36:91 $0.6802/98 (b/a backed by presented 100:7K $0.6801/$0.69), 12:17 36:90 $0.6802/99 (b/a backed by presented 100:7K $0.6801/$0.69), 12:33 36:86 $0.6802/99 (b/a backed by presented 100:7.1K $0.6801/$0.69), 12:43 448:6.9K $0.6899/$0.69, 13:03 500:1.4K $0.6800/95 (offers falling), 13:17 600:1.3K $0.6800/99 (offers jiggling 6.9K $0.69), 13:33 600:1.3K $0.6800/99, 13:47 500:1.3K $0.6800/99 (jiggling 6.6K $0.69), 14:02 500:1.3K $0.6800/99 (jiggling 6.6K $0.69), 14:17 400:1.3K $0.6800/99 (jiggling 6.6K $0.69). Volume was interrupted by 14:19's 5.9K $0.6898 (5K)/01. B/a at 14:32 was 400:1.3K $0.6800/90 (offers jiggling 300 $0.6891), 14:50 400:300 $0.6800/87 (offers jiggling 2.1K $0.6886), 15:02 400:2.1K $0.6800/78 (jiggling 300 $0.6880), 15:17 200:1.3K $0.6850/71. The period ended on 15:19's 200 $0.68.
15:20-15:53 began consistent very low-volume $0.6700/4 on 15:20's 400 $0.6702. B/a at 15:32 was 6.4K:700 $0.6700/47. The period ended on 15:53's 700 $0.6700/1.
15:54-16:00 began a drop on mixed high and low-volume, doing 15:54's 4.2K $0.67/$0.6601 (200), 15:55's 5K $0.6600/01 (700)/00 (~3.2K)/$0.6556 (600)/55 (400), 15:56's 4.5K $0.6555 (400)/$0.6599 (3.1K)/$0.6566 (600)/65 (400), 15:57's 400 $0.6559, 15:58's 4.6K $0.6699 (3.5K)/$0.6560 (800)/59 (300, and the period and day end on 15:59's 500 $0.6559 and 16:00's MM closing block of 64,660 for $0.65.
There was one AH sell of 400 for $0.66.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 2 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 69,660, 55.39% of day's volume, with a $0.6529 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there was 1 larger trade of 5,000, 3.98% of day's volume, with a $0.6898 VWAP. Consider the volume and possible Russell effect(s), nothing worth noting here IMO.
In the below, if the effects of the 64,660 closing trade are removed, the volume becomes 61,101, -73.68% movement, and the close becomes $0.6559, -4.27%.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, the high pushed above the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance and was rejected, resulting in a close down near the mid-range of the channel, even using the 15:59 closing price.
About 1/2 of the day's range was below the declining fast EMA's $0.6645 (was $0.6782). The slow EMA continued falling. Te fast EMA below the slow EMA continues to suggest more downside is likely near-term.
Price didn't approach the experimental 13-period Bollinger band lower limit, which began falling again today, so there's a brief(?) sigh of relief as we aren't in danger of "pushing" on it yet.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was completely below the falling 10-day's $0.7001 and the falling 50-day SMA's $0.6920. Today there was no recovery to close far from the bottom. The 20-day SMA is still rising.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (marginally and untrusted by me), momentum (marginally), Williams %R (got barely above oversold), and full stochastic (still oversold, barely). Weakening occurred in ADX-related. Only MFI was above neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch. Everything but MFI (untrusted by me) is below neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic are showing oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6323 and $0.7593 ($0.6275 and $0.7572 yesterday), continued diverging with now a slightly rising mid-point.
All in, only the two oversold oscillators and the Bollinger band offer any near-term positive indications. The reduced volume (especially if the closing block is discounted, suggests little strength in any direction though. Most of the oscillators weakening and the falling 10-day and 50-day SMAs do suggest weakening.
I'm going to stick with near-term down-leg continuation seems most likely for now.
N.B. Sans the MM's closing 64K+ trade, because it's likely not a short sale, we can assume the intra-day short percentage to be about double the print, or ~48%.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction. The short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) but the buy percentage continues down where near-term weakness is suggested.
The spread narrowed but still resides in an area suggesting near-term movement is likely.
The VWAP returned to weakening, making it only two positives in eight days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements went back to 14 negatives and 10 positives from yesterday's improved 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 05/19 is $0.0110, 1.70%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1050%, 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, 0.6348%, and 0.3385%.
All in, trying to adjust for the presence of that closing trade, I have to think the adjust short percentage is about the only positive. The buy percentage (15:59's better one) and spread combined with being in a down leg inside the minimal chart's descending channel leave me thinking near-term weakening will continue.
Bill
I remain thinking near-term weakness most likely as we are within a descending channel and a down-leg within that.
NOTE: It seems the Russell re-balancing had some effect on us as we had a 64K+ closing trade that dramatically skewed most metrics. I'll be using 15:59's readings for analysis although I will also be showing the 16:00 and AH trade readings. The closing block size makes me think some portfolio manager was doing a little early "Window Dressing". It was 64,660 block trade for $0.65 which was ~51.58% of the day's volume and below the rest of the day's range of $0.6555-$0.6900. As mentioned below, sans that trade, because it's likely not a short sale, we can assume the intra-day short percentage to be about double the print, or ~48%.
BTW, today was also Russell indexes re-balancing day. I guess this could have been related somehow, but I can't envision how.
Today was open low, bounce up to the high by about 10:10, go a long extremely low/no-volume sideways and in the last 45 minutes tank to end the day with that ~65K closing trade at $0.65, the low of the day.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 600:500 $0.6108/$0.73.
09:30-09:51 opened the day with a 2,314 sell for $0.67 & $0.67 x 35, x 2616. B/a just after open was 8.4K:7.9K $0.67/9. Then came 9:32's b/a 6.6K:8K $0.67/9, 9:32's 300 $0.6721, 9:34's 100 $0.69, 9:39's 1K $0.6700 (200)/1, 9:42's 200 $0.6788, 9:43's 100 $0.69, 9:49's b/a 6.7K:7.7K $0.67/9, 9:49's 5.9K $0.6711 (1K)/00 (200)/23/00 (1.6K)/01 (500)/$0.69 (2K)/$0.6701 (400). The period ended on 9:51's 200 $0.69.
09:52-11:25 during the initial six no-trades minutes had 9:54's b/a of 6.7K:7.5K $0.67/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6811/$0.69, with very slowly rising lows and more slowly falling highs, on 9:58's 100 $0.69. No trades 09:59-10:30. B/a at 10:05 was 398:7.4K $0.6702/$0.69, 10:22 598:700 $0.6800/99, 10:39 598:721 $0.6800/97, 10:47 779:200 $0.6816/97, 11:03 200:200 $0.6881/97 (bids rising), 11:17 300:200 $0.6896/7. The period ended on 11:25's 1K $0.6895 (500)/96.
11:26-15:19 did a drop on 11:26's 585 $0.6895/02 (200) and began extremely low/no-volume $0.6801/31, with slowly rising lows. B/a at 11:33 was 438:7.6K $0.6802/$0.69, 11:56 36:91 $0.6802/98 (b/a backed by presented 100:100 $0.6801/99). Price was interrupted by 11:59's 400 $0.6899/$0.69/$0.6802. B/a at 12:03 was 36:91 $0.6802/98 (b/a backed by presented 100:7K $0.6801/$0.69), 12:17 36:90 $0.6802/99 (b/a backed by presented 100:7K $0.6801/$0.69), 12:33 36:86 $0.6802/99 (b/a backed by presented 100:7.1K $0.6801/$0.69), 12:43 448:6.9K $0.6899/$0.69, 13:03 500:1.4K $0.6800/95 (offers falling), 13:17 600:1.3K $0.6800/99 (offers jiggling 6.9K $0.69), 13:33 600:1.3K $0.6800/99, 13:47 500:1.3K $0.6800/99 (jiggling 6.6K $0.69), 14:02 500:1.3K $0.6800/99 (jiggling 6.6K $0.69), 14:17 400:1.3K $0.6800/99 (jiggling 6.6K $0.69). Volume was interrupted by 14:19's 5.9K $0.6898 (5K)/01. B/a at 14:32 was 400:1.3K $0.6800/90 (offers jiggling 300 $0.6891), 14:50 400:300 $0.6800/87 (offers jiggling 2.1K $0.6886), 15:02 400:2.1K $0.6800/78 (jiggling 300 $0.6880), 15:17 200:1.3K $0.6850/71. The period ended on 15:19's 200 $0.68.
15:20-15:53 began consistent very low-volume $0.6700/4 on 15:20's 400 $0.6702. B/a at 15:32 was 6.4K:700 $0.6700/47. The period ended on 15:53's 700 $0.6700/1.
15:54-16:00 began a drop on mixed high and low-volume, doing 15:54's 4.2K $0.67/$0.6601 (200), 15:55's 5K $0.6600/01 (700)/00 (~3.2K)/$0.6556 (600)/55 (400), 15:56's 4.5K $0.6555 (400)/$0.6599 (3.1K)/$0.6566 (600)/65 (400), 15:57's 400 $0.6559, 15:58's 4.6K $0.6699 (3.5K)/$0.6560 (800)/59 (300, and the period and day end on 15:59's 500 $0.6559 and 16:00's MM closing block of 64,660 for $0.65.
There was one AH sell of 400 for $0.66.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 2 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 69,660, 55.39% of day's volume, with a $0.6529 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there was 1 larger trade of 5,000, 3.98% of day's volume, with a $0.6898 VWAP. Consider the volume and possible Russell effect(s), nothing worth noting here IMO.
Using only through 15:59, correlation between movements of buy percentage and VWAPs was pretty good prior to the normal 15:58 EOD push into the close, which often break the correlation. The buy percentages generally being so low does make me suspect the ATM was in use.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:51 12730 $0.6700 $0.6900 $8,581.16 $0.6741 10.12% 19.03%
11:25 3910 $0.6800 $0.6900 $2,678.22 $0.6850 3.11% 20.99%
15:19 11819 $0.6800 $0.6900 $8,112.85 $0.6864 9.40% 39.80% Incl 14:19 $0.6898 5,000
15:53 12284 $0.6700 $0.6704 $8,231.43 $0.6701 9.77% 27.07%
15:59 19192 $0.6555 $0.6700 $12,722.09 $0.6629 15.26% 33.20%
16:00 83852 $0.6500 $0.6700 $54,751.09 $0.6529 66.68% 16.08% Incl 16:00 $0.6500 64,660
16:03 400 $0.6600 $0.6600 $264.00 $0.6600 0.32% 16.03%
In the below, if the effects of the 64,660 closing trade are removed, the volume becomes 61,101, -73.68% movement, and the close becomes $0.6559, -4.27%.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today would suggest consolidation, buts it's a fake IMO. I believe it's something related to the general market behavior on a Russell re-balancing day. Note the note prior to these metrics - 61K volume is an awfully thin number upon which to make any inferences, so I won't.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.76% 1.56% -1.43% -4.27% -45.82%
Prior -7.58% -1.54% -1.21% 4.30% -31.99%
On my minimal chart, the high pushed above the descending channel's (descending blue lines) resistance and was rejected, resulting in a close down near the mid-range of the channel, even using the 15:59 closing price.
About 1/2 of the day's range was below the declining fast EMA's $0.6645 (was $0.6782). The slow EMA continued falling. Te fast EMA below the slow EMA continues to suggest more downside is likely near-term.
Price didn't approach the experimental 13-period Bollinger band lower limit, which began falling again today, so there's a brief(?) sigh of relief as we aren't in danger of "pushing" on it yet.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was completely below the falling 10-day's $0.7001 and the falling 50-day SMA's $0.6920. Today there was no recovery to close far from the bottom. The 20-day SMA is still rising.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (marginally and untrusted by me), momentum (marginally), Williams %R (got barely above oversold), and full stochastic (still oversold, barely). Weakening occurred in ADX-related. Only MFI was above neutral.
Today had weakening in accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch. Everything but MFI (untrusted by me) is below neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic are showing oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6323 and $0.7593 ($0.6275 and $0.7572 yesterday), continued diverging with now a slightly rising mid-point.
All in, only the two oversold oscillators and the Bollinger band offer any near-term positive indications. The reduced volume (especially if the closing block is discounted, suggests little strength in any direction though. Most of the oscillators weakening and the falling 10-day and 50-day SMAs do suggest weakening.
I'm going to stick with near-term down-leg continuation seems most likely for now.
N.B. Sans the MM's closing 64K+ trade, because it's likely not a short sale, we can assume the intra-day short percentage to be about double the print, or ~48%.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction. The short percentage is just above my desired range (needs re-check) but the buy percentage continues down where near-term weakness is suggested.
The spread narrowed but still resides in an area suggesting near-term movement is likely.
The VWAP returned to weakening, making it only two positives in eight days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements went back to 14 negatives and 10 positives from yesterday's improved 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 05/19 is $0.0110, 1.70%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1050%, 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, 0.6348%, and 0.3385%.
All in, trying to adjust for the presence of that closing trade, I have to think the adjust short percentage is about the only positive. The buy percentage (15:59's better one) and spread combined with being in a down leg inside the minimal chart's descending channel leave me thinking near-term weakening will continue.
Bill
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