AI
Monday, June 26, 2017 9:13:01 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/22 2017 EOD
I'm hanging in with near-term weakness as most likely and expect the down leg to develop further as we have confirmed re-entry into the descending channel (descending blue lines) on the minimal chart.
Today was a more or less down tend until around 14:30 when we saw the common push to get prices higher going into the close.
Note that the 12 minutes in the 14:35 period did ~47% of the days volume at the day's highest VWAP and made a very large improvement in the buy percentage. It makes me think the rest of the day was traded just to service whomever the ultimate customers were in that period.
It also makes me thing the buy percentage today can not be trusted.
There were two pre-market sells $0.6522 x 2 and x 3.
B/a just before open was 100:500 $0.6101/$0.74.
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 1,823 sell for $0.6520. B/a just after open was 73:300 $0.6510/$0.67 (bids backed by presented 215 $0.65). Then came no trades 09:31-:38, 9:39's 2.3K $0.6599 (2K)/$0.6501, 9:43's 400 $0.6512/00, 9:47's b/a 1.8K:1.7K $0.65/$0.6699, 9:47's 567 $0.6500 (100)/34, 9:53's 100 $0.6699, 10:02's 5.3K $0.6691/$0.6501/00/01 (1,4K)/00 (1.5K)/$0.6400 (1.2K)/1 (500), 10:04's 5.6K $0.6401, 10:05's 9.3K $0.65 (1.5K)/$0.6417 (4.9K)/$0.6501/17 (1.9K)/01 (800). The period ended on 10:07's 1.9K $0.6699 (1.6K)/$0.6501 (200)/$0.6698 (100).
10:08-11:07 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had 10:17's b/a of 1.4K:1.5K $0.6601/99 (bids rising). Trade began extremely low/no-volume, with the usual volume spikes, $0.65/$0.6699 on 10:17's 1.6K $0.6600/1 (300). B/a at 10:26 was 6.9K:4.3K $0.64/6. Volume was interrupted by 10:27's 4.8K $0.65/6 (500) and 10:30's 5.6K $0.6692/11 (600). B/a at 10:32 was 1.7:1.4K $0.6616/99 (bids rising), 10:47 5.1K:6K $6600/90. Volume was interrupted by 10:53's 13.7K $0.66 (5.1K)/$0.6500 (6.9K)/1 (1.6K). B/a at 10:58 was 100:6.3K $0.65/$0.6690, 11:02 6.9K:5.5K $0.64/$0.6690 (bids jiggling w/100 $0.65). The period ended on 11:07's 2.2K $0.6689 (1.8K)/$0.6501/00.
11:08-14:23, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6460/$0.6600, with relatively quickly rising lows, after 11:12's 2.1K $0.6502 (1.5K)/1/$0.6406/$0.6655 and 11:15's 2.2K $0.6666 (2K)/$0.6406. B/a at 11:17 was 100:1.3K $0.6406/$0.6688. Volume was interrupted by 11:34's 3.1K $0.6590 (2.5k)/$0.6416/06/07 (400). B/a at 11:36 was 5K:1K $0.6450/$0.66, 11:47 5K:750 $0.65/6 (bids jiggling 1.5K $0.6501), 12:02 8.1K:540 $0.65/6 (bids jiggling $0.6501 1.4K), 12:17 100:629 $0.6546/$0.66 (bids rising), 12:32 600:729 $0.6596/$0.66, 12:47 200:811 $0.6590/$0.66, 13:02 1.1K:411 $0.6501/$0.66, 13:17 2.4K:331 $0.6501/$0.66, 13:32 2K:331 $0.6501/$0.66, 13:47 2K:289 $0.6501/$0.66 (bids jiggling 9K $0.65), 14:02 2K:289 $0.6503/$0.66, 14:17 1.7K:289 $0.6503/$0.66. The period ended on 14:23's 12.5K $0.6599/04/$0.66 (8.5K)/$0.6503 (800)/$0.66 (1.4K)/$0.6505 (1.2K).
14:24-14:35, after three no-trades minutes, began very high-volume $0.6601/$0.68, with highs moving immediately up to $0.70, after 14:27's 10.4K $0.669 (5.9K)/$0.68 (1.7K)/$0.6551 (400)/$0.66 (388)/$0.68 (576)/$0.6600 (248)/50/$0.67 (400)/$0.66/$0.68 (400). B/a at 14:32 was 300:8.2K $0.66/$0.70. The period ended on 14:35's 22.4K $0.70 (20K blk)/$0.6601 (2.4K).
14:36-15:59 during the initial sixteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:39 was 300:500 $0.66/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume, very wide spread $0.66/$0.70, with slowly falling highs, on 14:52's 300 $0.6701. B/a at 15:13 was 800:6.6K $0.66/$0.70, 15:17700:100 $0.66/9, 15:32 400:7.9K $0.66/9, 15:47 1.6K:700 $0.67/$0.6899. The period and day ended on 15:59's 970 $0.6700/1/0/90, making the official close $0.6790, the last 200 shares 15:59 trades, because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were 2 AH trades: a 1.7K buy for $0.68 and a 250 sell for $0.68 (sell because the $0.68 offer was exhausted, leaving the offer at $0.77).
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 107,250, 46.20% of day's volume, with a $0.6748 VWAP. For the volume, the count seems alright. The percentage of day's volume is a bit to the high side, thanks to a few "larger larger trades" (all in that 14:35 period). The VWAP was above the day's $0.6703, making me suspect someone wanted the shares badly - like shorters doing covering buys? Or maybe a retailer? I guess it could be hedgies getting to market-neutral in their portfolio. We'll never know.
What I do know is that the short percentage (see below) suggests that someone saw this highest VWAP of the day as a selling opportunity. I'll suspect Cowan & Co. doing more ATM sales for $CPST - nobody else has any shares any more!
Anyway, just like yesterday we had a wide spread again. The difference today is the short percentage was high in spite of the depressing effect that the "larger larger trades" should have had on the short percentage, suggesting that either those trades did not go inter/intra-broker or someone made a snap decision to sell when the high prices were seen.
Hmmm ... Looking at yesterday we had sort an inverse situation. I wonder if what was seen today was the final stage of something begun yesterday.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Regardless of that, the range is definite evidence that we are likely out of the short-term consolidation and unlikely to return to that quickly. Leg down is in progress IMO.
On my minimal chart we get visual confirmation of what the movements above suggest - a leg down has begun. The most important thing is that the close, for the second day, was below the descending channel's (descending blue lines) top line, confirming a breakdown back into the channel, where that line will become potential resistance to any attempt to move up.
About 2/3rds of the day's range was below the formerly declining fast EMA's $0.6782 (was $0.6775 - the close gave it a slight minimal bump up as our close was $0.6790). The slow EMA continued falling and the fast EMA is still below the slow EMA, continuing to suggest more downside is likely near-term.
Today's trading range gave us a bad sign as the low almost touched the experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit, which was rising smartly. If we start "pushing" it, woe be to we who hope for appreciation. History suggests we will start pushing it and it seems especially likely now that we have a confirmed re-entry into the descending channel.
We will have to wait and see if the support line of that channel will be tested and whether it will hold.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was completely below the falling 10-day's $0.7041 and was about 90% below the still-falling 50-day SMA's $0.6953. Today did manage to recover some and the close was about 1/3rd below the day's high. The 20-day SMA is still rising.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening return to accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch also weakened. Every one but MFI (untrusted by me) was below neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic were in oversold. RSI ws close to being there.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (marginally and untrusted by me), momentum (marginally), Williams %R (got barely above oversold), and full stochastic (still oversold, barely). weakening occurred in ADX-related. Only MFI is above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6275 and $0.7572 ($0.6358 and $0.7575 yesterday), began diverging with now a slightly falling mid-point.
Yesterday I said { All in, I can't imagine how this could be any more negative. That offers hope that a reversal will occur as contrarians are always looking for such a condition. With the ATM facility always potentially intervening though I am not disposed to view things that way. I remain negative thinking we have exited the consolidation and will do a down leg, at least for the near-term. }
If we ignore all my TFH stuff, this looks rather prescient, don't you think? The "up day" combined with the behavior detailed in the intra-day breakdown suggests there may indeed be some contrarians out there. It's a lie though - adding in considerations related to the ATM (manipulated closes, artificial intra-day highs, running up into the close rather consistently, ...) tells me today was a blip on the sonar (below sea level).
All in, only the conventional TA I see today would make me think there's a positive move likely near-term. I'm inured against that false hope by the unconventional stuff I do and I see no reason here to change my prognosis that we have begun a leg down.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage is well above my desired range (needs re-check). I can't knock the buy percentage, but I can, due to intra-day observation, question it's veracity. I detailed what happened above and here I'll only say it's not likely that behavior indicated the start of a repeated trend. Lacking that, trend should return to it's "natural state", which for this symbol for now is continuing the leg down that began when exiting the very short-term consolidation.
The spread supports the position that more movement is likely. Other items suggest lower is the direction.
The VWAP movement improved marginally today, making two out of seven days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after having held steady for five consecutive days at 14 negatives and 10 positives, improved to 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 05/18 is $0.0263, 4.08%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, 0.6348%, 0.3385%, and 0.1182%.
All in, the short percentage and discounted buy percentage rules my thinking today, along with the spread and near-term trend of VWAP weakening. But for the short percentage, I'm sticking with yesterday's { everything but the short percentage suggests more near-term downside as most likely. }. Today the short percentage reinforces that while if we don't discount the buy percentage it suggests near-term strength. But as mentioned, I don't believe today's buy percentage because of how it was produced.
Bill
I'm hanging in with near-term weakness as most likely and expect the down leg to develop further as we have confirmed re-entry into the descending channel (descending blue lines) on the minimal chart.
Today was a more or less down tend until around 14:30 when we saw the common push to get prices higher going into the close.
Note that the 12 minutes in the 14:35 period did ~47% of the days volume at the day's highest VWAP and made a very large improvement in the buy percentage. It makes me think the rest of the day was traded just to service whomever the ultimate customers were in that period.
It also makes me thing the buy percentage today can not be trusted.
There were two pre-market sells $0.6522 x 2 and x 3.
B/a just before open was 100:500 $0.6101/$0.74.
09:30-10:07 opened the day with a 1,823 sell for $0.6520. B/a just after open was 73:300 $0.6510/$0.67 (bids backed by presented 215 $0.65). Then came no trades 09:31-:38, 9:39's 2.3K $0.6599 (2K)/$0.6501, 9:43's 400 $0.6512/00, 9:47's b/a 1.8K:1.7K $0.65/$0.6699, 9:47's 567 $0.6500 (100)/34, 9:53's 100 $0.6699, 10:02's 5.3K $0.6691/$0.6501/00/01 (1,4K)/00 (1.5K)/$0.6400 (1.2K)/1 (500), 10:04's 5.6K $0.6401, 10:05's 9.3K $0.65 (1.5K)/$0.6417 (4.9K)/$0.6501/17 (1.9K)/01 (800). The period ended on 10:07's 1.9K $0.6699 (1.6K)/$0.6501 (200)/$0.6698 (100).
10:08-11:07 during the initial nine no-trades minutes had 10:17's b/a of 1.4K:1.5K $0.6601/99 (bids rising). Trade began extremely low/no-volume, with the usual volume spikes, $0.65/$0.6699 on 10:17's 1.6K $0.6600/1 (300). B/a at 10:26 was 6.9K:4.3K $0.64/6. Volume was interrupted by 10:27's 4.8K $0.65/6 (500) and 10:30's 5.6K $0.6692/11 (600). B/a at 10:32 was 1.7:1.4K $0.6616/99 (bids rising), 10:47 5.1K:6K $6600/90. Volume was interrupted by 10:53's 13.7K $0.66 (5.1K)/$0.6500 (6.9K)/1 (1.6K). B/a at 10:58 was 100:6.3K $0.65/$0.6690, 11:02 6.9K:5.5K $0.64/$0.6690 (bids jiggling w/100 $0.65). The period ended on 11:07's 2.2K $0.6689 (1.8K)/$0.6501/00.
11:08-14:23, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6460/$0.6600, with relatively quickly rising lows, after 11:12's 2.1K $0.6502 (1.5K)/1/$0.6406/$0.6655 and 11:15's 2.2K $0.6666 (2K)/$0.6406. B/a at 11:17 was 100:1.3K $0.6406/$0.6688. Volume was interrupted by 11:34's 3.1K $0.6590 (2.5k)/$0.6416/06/07 (400). B/a at 11:36 was 5K:1K $0.6450/$0.66, 11:47 5K:750 $0.65/6 (bids jiggling 1.5K $0.6501), 12:02 8.1K:540 $0.65/6 (bids jiggling $0.6501 1.4K), 12:17 100:629 $0.6546/$0.66 (bids rising), 12:32 600:729 $0.6596/$0.66, 12:47 200:811 $0.6590/$0.66, 13:02 1.1K:411 $0.6501/$0.66, 13:17 2.4K:331 $0.6501/$0.66, 13:32 2K:331 $0.6501/$0.66, 13:47 2K:289 $0.6501/$0.66 (bids jiggling 9K $0.65), 14:02 2K:289 $0.6503/$0.66, 14:17 1.7K:289 $0.6503/$0.66. The period ended on 14:23's 12.5K $0.6599/04/$0.66 (8.5K)/$0.6503 (800)/$0.66 (1.4K)/$0.6505 (1.2K).
14:24-14:35, after three no-trades minutes, began very high-volume $0.6601/$0.68, with highs moving immediately up to $0.70, after 14:27's 10.4K $0.669 (5.9K)/$0.68 (1.7K)/$0.6551 (400)/$0.66 (388)/$0.68 (576)/$0.6600 (248)/50/$0.67 (400)/$0.66/$0.68 (400). B/a at 14:32 was 300:8.2K $0.66/$0.70. The period ended on 14:35's 22.4K $0.70 (20K blk)/$0.6601 (2.4K).
14:36-15:59 during the initial sixteen no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:39 was 300:500 $0.66/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume, very wide spread $0.66/$0.70, with slowly falling highs, on 14:52's 300 $0.6701. B/a at 15:13 was 800:6.6K $0.66/$0.70, 15:17700:100 $0.66/9, 15:32 400:7.9K $0.66/9, 15:47 1.6K:700 $0.67/$0.6899. The period and day ended on 15:59's 970 $0.6700/1/0/90, making the official close $0.6790, the last 200 shares 15:59 trades, because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were 2 AH trades: a 1.7K buy for $0.68 and a 250 sell for $0.68 (sell because the $0.68 offer was exhausted, leaving the offer at $0.77).
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 107,250, 46.20% of day's volume, with a $0.6748 VWAP. For the volume, the count seems alright. The percentage of day's volume is a bit to the high side, thanks to a few "larger larger trades" (all in that 14:35 period). The VWAP was above the day's $0.6703, making me suspect someone wanted the shares badly - like shorters doing covering buys? Or maybe a retailer? I guess it could be hedgies getting to market-neutral in their portfolio. We'll never know.
What I do know is that the short percentage (see below) suggests that someone saw this highest VWAP of the day as a selling opportunity. I'll suspect Cowan & Co. doing more ATM sales for $CPST - nobody else has any shares any more!
Anyway, just like yesterday we had a wide spread again. The difference today is the short percentage was high in spite of the depressing effect that the "larger larger trades" should have had on the short percentage, suggesting that either those trades did not go inter/intra-broker or someone made a snap decision to sell when the high prices were seen.Note the 12 minutes in the 14:35 period had a positive effect on buy percentage as ~47% of day's volume went off at the highest VWAP of the day. Correlation between movement in buy percentage and VWAP looked reasonable I guess. It's interesting to me how close the total volume of the first three periods is to the 14:35 volume. Was the MM accumulating at a lower VWAP to fill the order(s) that went off in the 14:35 period? Don't know, never will.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:07 27181 $0.6400 $0.6699 $17,622.19 $0.6483 11.71% 14.96% Incl 10:04 $0.6401 5,000 10:05 $0.6416 4,700
11:07 31885 $0.6500 $0.6699 $20,993.31 $0.6584 13.74% 28.97% Incl 10:27 $0.6500 4,200 10:30 $0.6692 5,000
10:53 $0.6500 6,900 $0.6600 5,100
14:23 40026 $0.6406 $0.6666 $26,201.14 $0.6546 17.24% 33.80% Incl 13:20 $0.6501 6,500 14:23 $0.6600 5,200
14:35 108377 $0.6551 $0.7000 $74,134.71 $0.6840 46.69% 61.93% Incl 14:27 $0.6690 5,850 14:28 $0.6800 9,200
14:30 $0.6800 15,800 14:33 $0.7000 13,800
14:35 $0.7000 20,000
15:59 21298 $0.6600 $0.7000 $14,377.41 $0.6751 9.18% 58.93%
17:48 1950 $0.6800 $0.6800 $1,326.00 $0.6800 0.84% 59.17%
Hmmm ... Looking at yesterday we had sort an inverse situation. I wonder if what was seen today was the final stage of something begun yesterday.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
in spite of the green candle on the charts because the close was above the very low open, we see negatives everywhere but the close, which I hope you know is easily manipulated (we did see the common move higher into the close begin twenty minutes before the market closed about a penny or two pennies lower, depending on which starting point one picks. Falling volume on a "green candle" day suggests no strength in a move up.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -7.58% -1.54% -1.21% 4.30% -31.99%
Prior 2.37% -5.11% 0.10% -7.00% 359.40%
Regardless of that, the range is definite evidence that we are likely out of the short-term consolidation and unlikely to return to that quickly. Leg down is in progress IMO.
On my minimal chart we get visual confirmation of what the movements above suggest - a leg down has begun. The most important thing is that the close, for the second day, was below the descending channel's (descending blue lines) top line, confirming a breakdown back into the channel, where that line will become potential resistance to any attempt to move up.
About 2/3rds of the day's range was below the formerly declining fast EMA's $0.6782 (was $0.6775 - the close gave it a slight minimal bump up as our close was $0.6790). The slow EMA continued falling and the fast EMA is still below the slow EMA, continuing to suggest more downside is likely near-term.
Today's trading range gave us a bad sign as the low almost touched the experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit, which was rising smartly. If we start "pushing" it, woe be to we who hope for appreciation. History suggests we will start pushing it and it seems especially likely now that we have a confirmed re-entry into the descending channel.
We will have to wait and see if the support line of that channel will be tested and whether it will hold.
On my one-year chart, today's trade was completely below the falling 10-day's $0.7041 and was about 90% below the still-falling 50-day SMA's $0.6953. Today did manage to recover some and the close was about 1/3rd below the day's high. The 20-day SMA is still rising.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening return to accumulation/distribution and every other oscillator I watch also weakened. Every one but MFI (untrusted by me) was below neutral and Williams %R and full stochastic were in oversold. RSI ws close to being there.
Today had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI, MFI (marginally and untrusted by me), momentum (marginally), Williams %R (got barely above oversold), and full stochastic (still oversold, barely). weakening occurred in ADX-related. Only MFI is above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6275 and $0.7572 ($0.6358 and $0.7575 yesterday), began diverging with now a slightly falling mid-point.
Yesterday I said { All in, I can't imagine how this could be any more negative. That offers hope that a reversal will occur as contrarians are always looking for such a condition. With the ATM facility always potentially intervening though I am not disposed to view things that way. I remain negative thinking we have exited the consolidation and will do a down leg, at least for the near-term. }
If we ignore all my TFH stuff, this looks rather prescient, don't you think? The "up day" combined with the behavior detailed in the intra-day breakdown suggests there may indeed be some contrarians out there. It's a lie though - adding in considerations related to the ATM (manipulated closes, artificial intra-day highs, running up into the close rather consistently, ...) tells me today was a blip on the sonar (below sea level).
All in, only the conventional TA I see today would make me think there's a positive move likely near-term. I'm inured against that false hope by the unconventional stuff I do and I see no reason here to change my prognosis that we have begun a leg down.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but the short percentage is well above my desired range (needs re-check). I can't knock the buy percentage, but I can, due to intra-day observation, question it's veracity. I detailed what happened above and here I'll only say it's not likely that behavior indicated the start of a repeated trend. Lacking that, trend should return to it's "natural state", which for this symbol for now is continuing the leg down that began when exiting the very short-term consolidation.
The spread supports the position that more movement is likely. Other items suggest lower is the direction.
The VWAP movement improved marginally today, making two out of seven days.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements, after having held steady for five consecutive days at 14 negatives and 10 positives, improved to 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 05/18 is $0.0263, 4.08%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2012%, 0.0999%, 0.2079%, 0.2379%, 0.2486%, 0.2622%, 0.5035%, 0.6348%, 0.3385%, and 0.1182%.
All in, the short percentage and discounted buy percentage rules my thinking today, along with the spread and near-term trend of VWAP weakening. But for the short percentage, I'm sticking with yesterday's { everything but the short percentage suggests more near-term downside as most likely. }. Today the short percentage reinforces that while if we don't discount the buy percentage it suggests near-term strength. But as mentioned, I don't believe today's buy percentage because of how it was produced.
Bill
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