Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

Ordinarily I'd be watching the crack spread also. Right now, though, with energy in a new wave of funk, I don't view it as worthwhile. If the spread is favorable for some, it won't be for others. A smaller refiner with large stores of fuel in storage, then valuation numbers might indicate added value within, due to logistics being as they are.

This is some of what I'm seeing in ALDW and it explains why I'm being so aggressive as I await my expected downturn. At the same time, I added 100 NGL at $12 this morning, being of the belief that people will realize energy's funk is not necessarily tied directly into NGL's results.

In the end, then, the crack won't go much further than to explain how one segment of the wheel operates. It won't and cannot help us predetermine overall results affecting different segments of the energy industry as a whole for there will be various pressures affecting one or more sectors.

Know this:

ALDW paid 11 cents, 15, and then 38. Clearly we're in an uptrend largely attributable to relaxation in the area of RINs. We've not seen anything indicative of a retracement so if all goes well, we may actually get the 60 cents/unit of ALDW I'm hoping will be the case.