Let's be perfectly frank, or imperfectly, should that be thought to be preferable by some:
I have enjoyed some extremely profitable trades, dabbling in CVRR. It's been more than a year, now, but there have been times when I found the stock to be a proper vehicle for profiting.
So, in the end---I have liked CVRR.
However---and it's not like you didn't know it was coming (lol)---
I DO NOT LIKE CARL ICAHN!!!
A very close friend remarked this past Sunday evening that I am not a selfish person. We then discussed my difficulty when up against truly selfish individuals.
I deem Mr. Icahn as such an individual. Oh, there's a place for what I usually refer to as "pig people." Perhaps we even need them much as machines require oil to keep things moving smoothly.
But, really, now!---A full year without distributions coming to unit holders? And here this guy has the ear of our President while refiners complain about the Big Bad RINs crippling the bottom line?
And the crack spread was (earlier on) viewed as insufficient to support profitability yet now is far friendlier?
It is beyond me that anybody would even bother to glance at CVRR let alone actually consider sinking money into what might be a worthy investment, were it not for the likes of Icahn and his inner circle of vultures who obviously are not going without the means to support themselves in every way but inelegantly?
This stock is a pig-dog! That is the lowest of the lows when it comes to descriptions. But the problem is not the stock......it is the company!
Mr. Icahn is milking the country, not the company---for all it's worth. He uses opportunity to shift responsibility to others, to rules and regulations, when, in fact, HE IS THE PROBLEM!
Just take a look at a sister refining component.....ALON Energy Partners ---ALDW. Here we have a smaller refiner that has paid unit holders a distribution each of the last three consecutive quarters while Icahn's CVRR has paid nothing? What's wrong here? How is it that littler ALDW manages to share with us?
I'll leave this diatribe right where it is as it's pretty easy to read the SEC filings and figure things out sufficiently to make abundantly clear to an investor that CVRR is to be shunned whereas ALDW is an incredible profit-making opportunity RIGHT NOW! TODAY!
ALDW just announced a 38 cent distribution coming to unit holders for the first quarter of this year. This works out to an annual yield of better than 15.5%---something nearly unheard of, ordinarily. On the news of the hefty distribution, formerly shy investors suddenly woke up to the new reality:
"Hey, there's opportunity here!"
And they're right. The market is going to shift gears rapidamente and we're going to see yesterday's ALDW close of $9.90 climb above $10 to stay and climb much further. I make it a practice to never tell people what to do and I won't violate my personal code now, either. But I will say that if doubters are within viewing distance, then read this:
Times change and we must change with them.
The flip side of this:
Why wait?
Waiting for a dip? From $11? $13.50? We're going to hit those numbers soon enough because you just don't find low-hanging fruit so readily accessible. Close to 16%? No way. The unit price will climb higher until that distribution percentage drops back to something in the 7.5-8% range. That means units will have to be pricing at something in the $20 range.
I hold 24,500 units of ALDW and no CVRR. Yesterday handed me a gain in ALDW of almost $25,000. This is not more than the tip of an iceberg flying in the face of Icahn-Warming. And that probably stemmed from his embarrassment. I predict that ALDW will fetch more than $20/unit long before the year is done. That's a quarter of a million bucks to me.
Some will continue to live in the glue-patch of unrealistic expectations that Icahn promotes but there's no fire, no spark, and definitely no smoke. Just a lot of mirrors that Icahn couldn't possibly like.
These are my opinions only. I've presented a few things here, hoping to reduce exposure to painful stock ownership via CVRR.
As for ALDW offering time to switch from one stock pick to another? ALDW doesn't go ex-distribution until May 22 of the year. That means you can start positions and/or continue adding to them for thirteen days. However, be advised that waiting will be costly as not everyone will elect to wait. Superior decisiveness will force the unit price higher.
This it the time to launch, so get your tickets now while they remain affordable. The distribution news added 10% to ALDW's price yesterday on a day that had the S&P 500, NASD and the DOW ALL in downward mode!
So I ask you now: WHY WAIT?
