Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[AngeloFoca]

Angelo- You yourself said PAR has about 34% of the 15 and 30mg Focalin market. That market is $200M annually. 34% of $200M is $68M. IPCI is getting $2M or 3% of that $68M. 1% of the total $200M. I highly doubt they will get a 30-50% royalty on the Seroquel sales. Use common sense here. The deal is better on Seroquel but not by a factor of 10. Once again, $1M per month and maybe $1.25M and I will be jumping for joy with $1.5M per month.

You're as slippery as sprot is... I've asked you several times... what do you think IPCI's royalty %age is... and still no #.

Seems to me you want - or would like - for IPCI to make $1M a month and use the royalty %age as a sliding factor as a means of getting to that #.

I have little doubt that the royalty %age is a minimum 30% and possibly 50%... what I feel comfortable with is 40%... and I don't base it on "common sense" I base it on "cold hard facts" of what similar partnerships have been... It's not uncommon for a drug that has been brought all the way to approval to command ~ a 50-50 split.

The primary factor and unknown is the %age of market share that MNK will be able to capture... it certainly won't be 34%... I threw out 16% because it's 1/6th of the market and MNK will be one of 6 distributors... however in a post I made several months ago I gave the 1st to market a 50% share and divided the remaining 50% between the other 5... or 10% market share for MNK.

On that basis - 10% of a $700 million market = $70 million... 40% royalty on that is $28 million.

The number I feel least confident in... is the 10% market share... right now it's anyone's guess as to what that will be... or how long it will take to get there.

p.s. are you aware that Maxim and others use 50% as the royalty split???