Angelo- OK, I will show you another way to arrive in the ballpark of my estimate(and yes I know the analysts forecasts are way too high):
1. I will concede 10% market share or $70M gross revenue for MNK on Seroquel.
2. I say IPCI will get 10-20% on the gross revenue earned by MNK. At 10% that is $7M annually. At 20% that is $14M annually.
3. IPCI also has a cost plus clause for manufacturing. I don't have a good handle on what the costs will be. But lets throw out the manufacturing cost to be $2M. I see them getting between 25% to 100% on that number. So they would be getting $2.5-4M for the actual product.
4. Lastly, since the % paid on gross revenue of Focalin 15 and 30mg doses is 3%. I consider a 15% payment on the Seroquel gross revenue very lucrative. So realistically I see IPCI getting $10.5M based on 15% of gross revenue. I also see them getting $3M for producing the product. That totals $13.5M- or a little more than $3M per quarter.
Lastly, I really hope my numbers are too low. I will be happy to say I was wrong with joy :') But I just want everyone to have realistic expectations in regards to what the numbers will likely be. Yes, maybe they hit $4M per quarter or even $4.5M. But these huge numbers in excess of $5M and approaching $10M are just wrong in my opinion. We can revisit when we get more info later this year.
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