Biotech Values

[ciotera]

NASH vs. HCV:

There are certain important aspects that make them extremely different:
• NASH will likely never be curable
• The odds of success of any clinical program are extremely low compared to HCV and investment / time required is much higher
• Incidence of NASH will continue to grow because of the underlying epidemic of obesity and diabetes
• Absence / difficulty of developing a non-invasive diagnostic procedure means that an expensive drug will be limited to the most severe confirmed cases (which can still be a sizable opportunity)


Sometimes (often) simply throwing money and effort at a problem isn't going to solve it. What we saw with HCV was largely due to a medical advance in figuring out how to target a virus and cure a disease. This got exploited to the fullest and created interesting and unusual economic dynamics for the participants. But we can't just assume that if those same participants now turn their attention to another liver disease, we are going to see the same or even remotely similar results or economic dynamics. The most important prerequisite (revolutionary medical advance) is just not there.