Cycle Trading

[Duma]

As I commented last week, I have been disappointed with IWM because of the lack of ytd gain and also the large volatility. So I have decided that when this current 10min trade ends, I am also going to sell my daily shares also and just trade TNA per the 10min chart. TQQQ and SSO are working fine.

So while the two things that make TNA less suited to trading per the daily chart, they make it ideal to trade with my 10min chart. In my last reporting, I said that the winning % was running about 50-60% which was much less than I had hoped for. The W/L ratio was close to 3, so that made the trading profitable, but I just felt I had to get the winning % higher.

So I have now added 2 requirements from my 60min chart and the results were dramatic. I have been using the rules for a couple of weeks and it kept me from a losing trade.

So looking back at 2017 with the new rules, there are 100% wins for 7 trades for a total gain of 33.3% giving a 4.7% avg.

The 8 trades okayed by 10min rules and over ruled by 60min rules were all losers except for one small gain. For the 8 trades the total loss -11.4% for an avg of -1.4%.

In the chart below I marked all the 10min trades with arrows. The green arrows were okayed by the 60min rules and the red ones were denied. In general the 60min rules are not allowing wave B trades during a down half cycle. Trading counter trend waves is generally not a good idea.

So the current 10min trade was opened Thur morning as prices reversed at 98.83. Market is currently trading at 103 giving an unbooked yield of 4.2% which is close to the avg good trade.