Friday, March 10, 2017 9:59:03 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/09 2017 EOD
Everything I see suggests the down leg is done, near-term. Some things suggest a reversal may begin but indications are not yet strong. Buy percentage completed it's recovery but overshot and will likely start a return to normal levels, likely temporarily delaying or dampening any attempt to move up.
Let's hope we don't get another "Friday effect" tomorrow. It could spoil the early positives seen today, especially the buy percentage that achieved an unsustainable level.
The Short Report 02/28/17 showed a decrease of 40.51%. At various times in the past, and likely some days during that period, I had opined that I thought MMs were servicing "good customers", including shorters, by aiding in lowering prices so shorters could do covering buys at attractive prices, locking profits. That reporting period ended on a down leg, providing some tenuous support for that opinion.
I suspect our most recent down leg, which I think is now ending, is another such case of the MMs aiding and abetting those same "good customers". If my assessment is correct and the "good customers" are done for now, the MMs can let the price rise some before the shorters again attractive shorting prices and start driving price lower again by shorting and getting assistance from the MMs, who do naked shorting as part of the normal activities.
My TFH never quits does it?
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was
09:30-10:00 opened the day with an official ZILCH - no 9:30 opening trade! There was a 90-share odd-lot sell of 90 for $0.7105. B/a just after open was 10.2K:1.8K $0.7100/99. Then came 9:37's 12.4K $0.7199 (10K blk)/00/16/00/84, 9:40's b/a 200:2.7K $0.7110/98 (bids backed by presented 11K $0.71, 19K $0.70), 9:42's b/a 5.1K;1.2K $0.7150/98, 9:44's 200 $0.7199/50, 9:49's b/a 5.1K:1.1K $0.7150/96 (offers falling), 9:49's 5.7K $0.7196/73/96/73/96/97/99/$0.7200 (4K), 9:51's 4.4K $0.72 (3.9K)/$0.7150, 9:52's b/a 200:50 $0.7200/$0.7336 (offers backed by presented800 $0.75), 9:52's 100 $0.7290, 10:00's b/a 200:50 $0.72/$0.7336 (offers backed as before), and the period ended on 10:00's 5K $0.7341/$0.7200/45/00.
10:01-10:34, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7200/$0.7336, with quickly falling highs, on 10:03's 100 $0.7290 and 10:04's 600 $0.7211/00. B/a at 10:08 was 17.4K:450 $0.72/$0.7336, 10:16 17.2K:650 $0.7200/$0.7336, 10:22 100:1.4K $0.7201/48 (offers falling). Range had narrowed to $0.7201/2 by 10:22. B/a at 10:31 was 200:500 $0.7201/2. The period ended on 10:34's 100 $0.7202.
10:35-10:50 during the first twelve no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:46 of 100:1.1K $0.7201/2. Then range moved up on 10:47's 7K $0.7201/2/90/$0.7335, had b/a at 10:48 of 600:600 $0.7300/34, and ended the period on 10:50's 20.2K $0.7315/26/27/25/29/25/29/30/28/36/$0.47 (17K blk). Note that the three trading minutes had ~22.9% of day's trade volume and ~80% of all prior volume. Check the VWAP and buy percentage changes in the intra-day breakdown below.
10:51-11:16, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7256/$0.73, with falling range, on 10:54's 225 $0.7300/99. B/a at 10:57 was 400:50 $0.7300/36 (offers backed by presented 800 $0.7397), 11:16 5.1K:600 $0.7150/$0.73. The period ended on 11:16's 100 $0.7264.
11:17-12:29, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7150/$0.7252 on 11:22's 395 on $0.7150/$0.7224. B/a at 11:32 was 100:1.2K $0.7200/89 (range falling), 11:47 6.2K:1.7K $0.7170/$0.7268, 12:02 100:1.4K $0.7200/45 (offers falling), 12:16 6.2K:800 $0.7170/$0.7209 (offers falling). The period ended on 12:29's 1K $0.7178.
12:30-13:39, during four no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:32 of 6.2K:400 $0.7170/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7177/$0.728, with falling highs and rising lows, on 12:34's 1.1K $0.7269. B/a at 12:46 was 6.5K:600 $0.7170/$0.7280, 13:02 6.5K:600 $0.7170/$0.7280, 13:16 101:700 $0.7177:$0.7280. By 13:19 range was at $0.7193/$0.7229. B/a at 13:31 was 101:500 $0.7177/$0.7280. The period ended on 13:39's132 $0.7231.
13:40-14:57, after thirty-four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7239/77 on 14:14's 501 $0.7233. B/a at 14:17 was 1.3K:400 $0.7250/77, 14:35 900:100 $0.7250/79, 14:46 600:600 $0.7250/79. The period ended on 14:57's 500 $0.7262.
14:58-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $0.7200/40, with slowly falling highs and rising lows, on 14:59's 13.1K $0.7250/00 (12.1K incl 12K blk). B/a at 15:01 was 5K:400 $0.7200/67 (offers falling), 15:16 4.5K:2K $0.7200/39, 15:31 4.3K:2.1K $0.7200/33 (offers falling). The period and day ended on 15:59's 3,384 sells for $0.715 and closed the day there because there were no MM 16:00 closing trades.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 42,950, 36.84% of day's volume, with a $0.7279 VWAP. As has been the case recently, the count seems reasonable for the day's volume but the percentage of day's volume is high, due to a few "larger larger trades". Thanks to the 10:50 period, the VWAP is above the day's $0.7241.
In the following, recall the note above about the three trade minutes in the 10:50 ending period. Notice that regardless of strong buy percentages VWAP made no sustained progress upward subsequent to the 10-50 period. I can only guess that the shorters, who had been apparently covering during the last two weeks of February, have been shorting again, along with the MMs naked shorting of course. Since the 10:50 period was followed immediately by a big price drop and relatively low prices the rest of the day, I think the MMs may have been seeing attractive covering prices and might be short-term long. This could produce an at least small rise in tomorrows price range, and maybe a VWAP bump.
On my minimal chart, recall that yesterday { ... we penetrated and closed below the rising support, but on extremely low volume that suggests no strength yet in the down move. } Today's behavior seems to bear that out regardless of failing to meet the requirement of { ... we need a close >= ~$0.7225 to avoid confirming a break down. } I'm going to go against the grain here, due to the buy percentage seen today, and suggest we are unlikely to start moving toward challenging the $0.66 low. Other than that ...
We got the rising volume part of { ... We also need to reverse today's volume trend and see a close above the line with rising volume, which would give a suggestion of strength beginning in a move higher. } This adds to my belief that the down leg is done near-term.
Today had a flat range, but a marginally higher close, on rising volume. This should, in conventional TA, suggest some increasing strength in a move higher. If I hadn't seen the intra-day buy percentages I would be sceptical because the close's rise was so small. As it is, I'm going to suspend disbelief.
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continued declining and is further below, but only marginally today, the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's also still below the rising support. I'm still looking for this to start reversing.
We stopped "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band today as the lower limit continued to decline while price range held steady. this is good, but being the first day of this condition, especially with a flat range and mediocre, although improved, volume, we can't yet read much into it. Add in that tomorrow might give us another "Friday effect" and everything is "iffy".
On my one-year chart, as with the prior three days, it looks like the long-term descending former resistance acted as support. Yesterday I noted { This allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode. } I think this still holds and today's lack of continued decline in price range seems to suggest, especially with the volume improvement, that we'll start at least a short-term leg up within this consolidation.
The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 10-day SMA continued declining but the 20-day stopped declining and rose marginally. The 10-day which was below the 20-day by 71/100ths of a cent is now 1.52 cents below. This gap is large enough now that even if strength appears we will take a bit longer get the 10-day back above the 20-day SMA unless the leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely. If we hold here we'll get 8 (was 9) days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 18 (was 2 of rise) days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will decline 3 days (was 4) and then rise 1 day and decline again 10 (was 10) days. The 200-day would fall ~155 (was ~155) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum, while all other continued weakening. Williams %R entered oversold and full stochastic is barely above that condition. Everything is below neutral.
Today had improvement in RSI, momentum, and Williams %R (still oversold). Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (deeply oversold), and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7014 and $0.7987 ($0.7058 and $0.8074 yesterday), are again almost parallel in their decline, giving a falling mid-point. Yesterday I said { As mentioned, our range is "pushing" the lower limit for the second day. I wouldn't be surprised if that ceased tomorrow. } Today our range did cease "pushing" the lower limit, a good thing. Regardless, the mid-point continues falling and suggests any leg up might have a smaller rise than we'd like to see.
All in, I continue believing the leg-down is done. Early indications suggest we might start a leg up, but tomorrow is Friday. Let's hope it doesn't produce another "Friday effect".
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good but today good as short percentage moved to the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage completed the predicted rebound. Unfortunately, it went too high and will retreat to more normal levels.
The spread remained unchanged at a level near what I expect for consolidation.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 13 negatives and 11 positives steady from 14 and 10 respectively. Change since 02/02 is -$0.0564, -7.23%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, and 0.4031%.
All in, I think this stuff confirms that near-term the down-leg is done. The short and buy percentage suggest upside is likely but for the fact that buy percentage went too high. A return to normal levels is likely and will probably dampen any move up for at least a short while.
Oh! Add in tomorrow is Friday - may see a "Friday effect" that gives low volume and little movement.
Bill
Everything I see suggests the down leg is done, near-term. Some things suggest a reversal may begin but indications are not yet strong. Buy percentage completed it's recovery but overshot and will likely start a return to normal levels, likely temporarily delaying or dampening any attempt to move up.
Let's hope we don't get another "Friday effect" tomorrow. It could spoil the early positives seen today, especially the buy percentage that achieved an unsustainable level.
The Short Report 02/28/17 showed a decrease of 40.51%. At various times in the past, and likely some days during that period, I had opined that I thought MMs were servicing "good customers", including shorters, by aiding in lowering prices so shorters could do covering buys at attractive prices, locking profits. That reporting period ended on a down leg, providing some tenuous support for that opinion.
I suspect our most recent down leg, which I think is now ending, is another such case of the MMs aiding and abetting those same "good customers". If my assessment is correct and the "good customers" are done for now, the MMs can let the price rise some before the shorters again attractive shorting prices and start driving price lower again by shorting and getting assistance from the MMs, who do naked shorting as part of the normal activities.
My TFH never quits does it?
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was
09:30-10:00 opened the day with an official ZILCH - no 9:30 opening trade! There was a 90-share odd-lot sell of 90 for $0.7105. B/a just after open was 10.2K:1.8K $0.7100/99. Then came 9:37's 12.4K $0.7199 (10K blk)/00/16/00/84, 9:40's b/a 200:2.7K $0.7110/98 (bids backed by presented 11K $0.71, 19K $0.70), 9:42's b/a 5.1K;1.2K $0.7150/98, 9:44's 200 $0.7199/50, 9:49's b/a 5.1K:1.1K $0.7150/96 (offers falling), 9:49's 5.7K $0.7196/73/96/73/96/97/99/$0.7200 (4K), 9:51's 4.4K $0.72 (3.9K)/$0.7150, 9:52's b/a 200:50 $0.7200/$0.7336 (offers backed by presented800 $0.75), 9:52's 100 $0.7290, 10:00's b/a 200:50 $0.72/$0.7336 (offers backed as before), and the period ended on 10:00's 5K $0.7341/$0.7200/45/00.
10:01-10:34, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7200/$0.7336, with quickly falling highs, on 10:03's 100 $0.7290 and 10:04's 600 $0.7211/00. B/a at 10:08 was 17.4K:450 $0.72/$0.7336, 10:16 17.2K:650 $0.7200/$0.7336, 10:22 100:1.4K $0.7201/48 (offers falling). Range had narrowed to $0.7201/2 by 10:22. B/a at 10:31 was 200:500 $0.7201/2. The period ended on 10:34's 100 $0.7202.
10:35-10:50 during the first twelve no-trades minutes had b/a at 10:46 of 100:1.1K $0.7201/2. Then range moved up on 10:47's 7K $0.7201/2/90/$0.7335, had b/a at 10:48 of 600:600 $0.7300/34, and ended the period on 10:50's 20.2K $0.7315/26/27/25/29/25/29/30/28/36/$0.47 (17K blk). Note that the three trading minutes had ~22.9% of day's trade volume and ~80% of all prior volume. Check the VWAP and buy percentage changes in the intra-day breakdown below.
10:51-11:16, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7256/$0.73, with falling range, on 10:54's 225 $0.7300/99. B/a at 10:57 was 400:50 $0.7300/36 (offers backed by presented 800 $0.7397), 11:16 5.1K:600 $0.7150/$0.73. The period ended on 11:16's 100 $0.7264.
11:17-12:29, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7150/$0.7252 on 11:22's 395 on $0.7150/$0.7224. B/a at 11:32 was 100:1.2K $0.7200/89 (range falling), 11:47 6.2K:1.7K $0.7170/$0.7268, 12:02 100:1.4K $0.7200/45 (offers falling), 12:16 6.2K:800 $0.7170/$0.7209 (offers falling). The period ended on 12:29's 1K $0.7178.
12:30-13:39, during four no-trades minutes had b/a at 12:32 of 6.2K:400 $0.7170/9. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7177/$0.728, with falling highs and rising lows, on 12:34's 1.1K $0.7269. B/a at 12:46 was 6.5K:600 $0.7170/$0.7280, 13:02 6.5K:600 $0.7170/$0.7280, 13:16 101:700 $0.7177:$0.7280. By 13:19 range was at $0.7193/$0.7229. B/a at 13:31 was 101:500 $0.7177/$0.7280. The period ended on 13:39's132 $0.7231.
13:40-14:57, after thirty-four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7239/77 on 14:14's 501 $0.7233. B/a at 14:17 was 1.3K:400 $0.7250/77, 14:35 900:100 $0.7250/79, 14:46 600:600 $0.7250/79. The period ended on 14:57's 500 $0.7262.
14:58-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $0.7200/40, with slowly falling highs and rising lows, on 14:59's 13.1K $0.7250/00 (12.1K incl 12K blk). B/a at 15:01 was 5K:400 $0.7200/67 (offers falling), 15:16 4.5K:2K $0.7200/39, 15:31 4.3K:2.1K $0.7200/33 (offers falling). The period and day ended on 15:59's 3,384 sells for $0.715 and closed the day there because there were no MM 16:00 closing trades.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 42,950, 36.84% of day's volume, with a $0.7279 VWAP. As has been the case recently, the count seems reasonable for the day's volume but the percentage of day's volume is high, due to a few "larger larger trades". Thanks to the 10:50 period, the VWAP is above the day's $0.7241.
In the following, recall the note above about the three trade minutes in the 10:50 ending period. Notice that regardless of strong buy percentages VWAP made no sustained progress upward subsequent to the 10-50 period. I can only guess that the shorters, who had been apparently covering during the last two weeks of February, have been shorting again, along with the MMs naked shorting of course. Since the 10:50 period was followed immediately by a big price drop and relatively low prices the rest of the day, I think the MMs may have been seeing attractive covering prices and might be short-term long. This could produce an at least small rise in tomorrows price range, and maybe a VWAP bump.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:00 31157 $0.7100 $0.7341 $22,421.39 $0.7196 26.73% 60.64% Incl 09:37 $0.7199 10,000 09:49 $0.7200 4,000
10:34 2075 $0.7200 $0.7336 $1,498.18 $0.7220 1.78% 59.14%
10:50 26676 $0.7201 $0.7400 $19,605.33 $0.7349 22.88% 73.45% Incl 10:50 $0.7400 17,000
11:16 7691 $0.7200 $0.7399 $5,589.38 $0.7267 6.60% 75.68%
12:29 3380 $0.7150 $0.7252 $2,433.93 $0.7201 2.90% 75.70%
13:39 6931 $0.7177 $0.7280 $5,004.27 $0.7220 5.95% 71.22%
14:57 1800 $0.7232 $0.7277 $1,304.86 $0.7249 1.54% 69.61%
16:00 34755 $0.7150 $0.7279 $25,022.59 $0.7200 29.81% 51.59% Incl 14:59 $0.7200 11,950
In spite of a slightly lower open and flat low and high, we ended with a marginally higher close on rising, but still low, volume. This reinforces my thinking that the down leg is in the process of ending. The volume is not yet strong enough to suggest a rise, as is the case for the movements of the other metrics, but is at least an early suggestion that one is possible or even likely.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 66.37%
Prior -4.00% 0.00% -3.90% -0.99% -74.75%
On my minimal chart, recall that yesterday { ... we penetrated and closed below the rising support, but on extremely low volume that suggests no strength yet in the down move. } Today's behavior seems to bear that out regardless of failing to meet the requirement of { ... we need a close >= ~$0.7225 to avoid confirming a break down. } I'm going to go against the grain here, due to the buy percentage seen today, and suggest we are unlikely to start moving toward challenging the $0.66 low. Other than that ...
We got the rising volume part of { ... We also need to reverse today's volume trend and see a close above the line with rising volume, which would give a suggestion of strength beginning in a move higher. } This adds to my belief that the down leg is done near-term.
Today had a flat range, but a marginally higher close, on rising volume. This should, in conventional TA, suggest some increasing strength in a move higher. If I hadn't seen the intra-day buy percentages I would be sceptical because the close's rise was so small. As it is, I'm going to suspend disbelief.
The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continued declining and is further below, but only marginally today, the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's also still below the rising support. I'm still looking for this to start reversing.
We stopped "pushing" the experimental 13-period Bollinger band today as the lower limit continued to decline while price range held steady. this is good, but being the first day of this condition, especially with a flat range and mediocre, although improved, volume, we can't yet read much into it. Add in that tomorrow might give us another "Friday effect" and everything is "iffy".
On my one-year chart, as with the prior three days, it looks like the long-term descending former resistance acted as support. Yesterday I noted { This allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode. } I think this still holds and today's lack of continued decline in price range seems to suggest, especially with the volume improvement, that we'll start at least a short-term leg up within this consolidation.
The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 10-day SMA continued declining but the 20-day stopped declining and rose marginally. The 10-day which was below the 20-day by 71/100ths of a cent is now 1.52 cents below. This gap is large enough now that even if strength appears we will take a bit longer get the 10-day back above the 20-day SMA unless the leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely. If we hold here we'll get 8 (was 9) days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 18 (was 2 of rise) days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will decline 3 days (was 4) and then rise 1 day and decline again 10 (was 10) days. The 200-day would fall ~155 (was ~155) days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in MFI (untrusted by me) and momentum, while all other continued weakening. Williams %R entered oversold and full stochastic is barely above that condition. Everything is below neutral.
Today had improvement in RSI, momentum, and Williams %R (still oversold). Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (deeply oversold), and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7014 and $0.7987 ($0.7058 and $0.8074 yesterday), are again almost parallel in their decline, giving a falling mid-point. Yesterday I said { As mentioned, our range is "pushing" the lower limit for the second day. I wouldn't be surprised if that ceased tomorrow. } Today our range did cease "pushing" the lower limit, a good thing. Regardless, the mid-point continues falling and suggests any leg up might have a smaller rise than we'd like to see.
All in, I continue believing the leg-down is done. Early indications suggest we might start a leg up, but tomorrow is Friday. Let's hope it doesn't produce another "Friday effect".
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, normally not good but today good as short percentage moved to the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage completed the predicted rebound. Unfortunately, it went too high and will retreat to more normal levels.
The spread remained unchanged at a level near what I expect for consolidation.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 13 negatives and 11 positives steady from 14 and 10 respectively. Change since 02/02 is -$0.0564, -7.23%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, 0.3382%, and 0.4031%.
All in, I think this stuff confirms that near-term the down-leg is done. The short and buy percentage suggest upside is likely but for the fact that buy percentage went too high. A return to normal levels is likely and will probably dampen any move up for at least a short while.
Oh! Add in tomorrow is Friday - may see a "Friday effect" that gives low volume and little movement.
Bill
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