Replies to post #27977 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 03/10 2017 EOD

Today's apparent weakening is marginal in many respects and has a reducing, and weak, volume. The volume suggests no strength in the marginal weakening and seems to support a "Friday effect" as being likely. So scepticism is warranted even if it ends up being wrong.

I'm sticking with my call that we've bottomed as today's low was only down 1 penny from the last three days' $0.71. Combined with the weakening volume, it continues to seem the most likely scenario,

Mixed signals from both the conventional TA and my experimental stuff make it difficult to have confidence in this though.

Today's action was a common open low, bounce high and start the typical long slow fall from around 10:50ish. Several new intra-day lows were set - details below - before we closed setting another. There was a 100-share AH trade that was lower, $0.70, too. If shorters, and especially MMs, were doing covering buys during the grind down, and if today had a "Friday effect" component to it, we could see Monday do what today did in the early part - push up as the MMs supported price until they unloaded their short-term long positions likely established Thursday, which had a longer open low and go high, and went relatively higher, before dropping back and offering attractive covering prices.

Yesterday I had noted { I think the MMs may have been seeing attractive covering prices and might be short-term long. This could produce an at least small rise in tomorrows price range, and maybe a VWAP bump. } Well, we got the early support but the small rise I looked for was a small drop, going from a high of $0.74 to $0.7399, still plenty of room for profit by the MMs. The low stayed at or above yesterday's until 13:26, giving the MMs plenty of time to do the deed.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7101/$0.75.

09:30-11:09 opened the day with another official ZILCH - no 9:30 opening trade! There were 2 odd-lot sells of $0.716: x 65 & x 1. Official open was 9:35's first trade, $0.7183 x 4K. B/a just after 9:30 was 300:129 $0.7101/$0.74. Then came 9:35's 4.5K $0.7183 (4K)/07, 9:38's 3.5K $0.7110 (3K)/07, 9:40's 5.8K $0.7190 (5K)/50, 9:48's 2K $0.7398 (1,8K)/$0.7150, 9:50's 100 $0.7399, 9:51's b/a 500:400 $0.7150/$0.7399, 9:53's 200 $0.7399/$0.7150, 10:00's b/a 500:400 $0.7150/$0.7399, 10:02's 200 $0.7165/50, 10:05's 100 $0.7399, 10:07's b/a 500:600 $0.7150/$0.7399, 10:11's 142 $0.7355, 10:12's b/a 270:600 $0.7200/$0.7399, 10:17 670:600 $0.7200/$0.7399, 10:18's 1.1K $0.7399 (1K)/80, 10:23's 200 $0.7399, 10:27's b/a 270:600 $0.72/$0.7399, 10:35's b/a 470:600 $0.7200/$0.7399, 10:38's 625 $0.7211, 10:48's b/a 470:600 $0.72/$0.7399, 10:50's 700 $0.7399/$0.72, 10:51's 200 $0.7201, 11:01 622:700 $0.7201/$0.7399, 11:05's 200 $0.73, 11:07's 800 $0.7384, and the period ended on 11:09's 500 $0.7399 (100)/00.

11:10-12:51, during the first two no-trades minutes had 11:10's b/a of 231:700 $0.7201/$0.7398. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7150/$0.7293 (mostly mid $0.71xx) on 11:12's 600 $0.7157/4/7. B/a at 11:16 was 11:400 $0.7201/97 (bids backed by presented $0.72 x 70, $0.7150 x 3K), 11:23 3.2K:300 $0.7150/$0.7295 (offers falling), 11:28 10:400 $0.7200/94 (bids backed by presented 3K $0.7150), 11:47 10:400 $0.7200/94 (bids backed by presented 3.2K $0.7150). Volume was interrupted by 11:59's 2.4K $0.7150/5. B/a at 12:01 was 2.9K:300 $0.7150/$0.7294. Volume was interrupted by 12:06's 6.4K $0.7151 (5K)/0. B/a at 12:16 was 1.5K:300 $0.7150/$0.7294, 12:31 1.5K:400 $0.7150/$0.7294, 12:47 1.3K:400 $0.7150/$0.7294. The period ended on 12:51's 400 $0.7294 (300)/$0.7150.

12:52-13:25, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.71/$0.7293 (mostly low $0.71xx) on 12:53's 1.3K $0.7150 (1.2K)/01. B/a at 12:56 was 11.8K:400 $0.71/$0.7294. Volume was interrupted by 13:01's 3K $0.7185. B/a at 13:01 12.2K:400 $0.71/$0.7294 (offers falling), 13:16 200:500 $0.7103/$0.7240. The period ended on 13:25's 1.3K $0.7100/13.

13:26-15:02 began very low/no-volume $0.71/2 on 13:36's 300 $0.71. B/a at 13:31 was 7.4K:800 $0.7100/2. Volume was interrupted by 13:37's 6K $0.7100/2 and 13:42's 6.3K $0.71. Trade became extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 13:47 was 5.5K:800 $0.7100/1. Volume was interrupted by 13:55's 3K $0.72. B/a at 14:03 was 5K:2.3K $0.7101/99. Volume was interrupted by 14:06's 4.8K $0.7101 (4.7K)/99. B/a at 14:16 was 4.7K:900 $0.7101/74, 14:32 4.4K:800 $0.7101/41, 14:47 200:1.5K $0.7101/66. Volume was interrupted by 14:50's 4.9K $0.7101/5/1/0. B/a at 15:01 was 2.2K:200 $0.7100/10. The period ended on 15:02's 200 $0.7100/4.

15:03-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, began a decline into the close, initially mostly very low/no-volume, on 15:06's 5K $0.7100/$0.7077/95/77. 15:15's 2.4K did $0.7084->$0.7022. B/a at 15:17 was 3.3K:200 $0.7022/56, 15:32 100:200 $0.7022/33. 15:37's 144 hit $0.7008. B/a at 15:47 was 600:200 $0.7008/27 (bids rattling 3.3K $0.7007/600 $0.7008). 15:51's 7.4K hit $0.7007-$0.7027. 15:58's 2K did $0.7020/27/07 and the period and day ended on 15:59's 530 $0.7007 and 16:00's 2,653 sell for $0.7001.

There were 2 AH trades: 16:06 $0.71 x 250 and 16:24 $0.70 x 100.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 28,147, 27.89% of day's volume, with a $0.7114 VWAP. The count and percentage are both reasonable. The VWAP is below the day's $0.7130 VWAP. Given the low volume I don't think we can draw any conclusions.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  11:09   21072 $0.7107 $0.7399    $15,221.87 $0.7224 20.88% 23.88% Incl 09:40 $0.7190 5,000 
  12:51   13201 $0.7150 $0.7294     $9,470.79 $0.7174 13.08% 19.81% Incl 12:06 $0.7151 5,000 
  13:25   10677 $0.7100 $0.7293     $7,643.73 $0.7159 10.58% 17.61% 
  15:02   29756 $0.7100 $0.7200    $21,154.59 $0.7109 29.49% 22.54% Incl 13:37 $0.7102 4,300 13:42 $0.7100 5,347 
   14:06 $0.7101 4,100 
  16:00   24507 $0.7001 $0.7100    $17,254.07 $0.7040 24.29% 31.59% Incl 15:51 $0.7025 4,400 
  16:24     350 $0.7000 $0.7100       $247.50 $0.7071  0.35% 31.47%

Yesterday at the top of the post I said { Buy percentage completed it's recovery but overshot and will likely start a return to normal levels, likely temporarily delaying or dampening any attempt to move up. } As I expected, buy percentage retreated, but further than I expected, and the VWAP wasn't able to move up today. I guess an overshoot to the downside balances out the overshoot to the upside and I suspect tomorrow will bring another move upward, toward the normal range.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today      1.15%  -1.41%  -0.01%  -2.08% -13.44% 
 Prior     -1.37%   0.00%   0.00%   0.29%  66.37%

Yesterday I noted { This reinforces my thinking that the down leg is in the process of ending. The volume is not yet strong enough to suggest a rise, as is the case for the movements of the other metrics, but is at least an early suggestion that one is possible or even likely. } It looks like the "not yet strong enough to suggest a rise" should have been "too weak to prevent another small decline" as today's VWAP price also dropped ~1.5%.

On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { ... had a flat range, but a marginally higher close, on rising volume. This should, in conventional TA, suggest some increasing strength in a move higher. If I hadn't seen the intra-day buy percentages I would be sceptical because the close's rise was so small. As it is, I'm going to suspend disbelief. } I shouldn't have done that. Knowing how stuff is manipulated, and it works, my TFH and unconventional stuff has been right often enough, but not a really good percentage of the time I guess, that I should at least give it more credence than I did yesterday. Regardless, the movements of the OLHC today were small enough that I don't yet abandon my belief that the down leg is ended. The reduced volume today again suggests no strength in the movement lower.

We closed below the rising support (ascending orange line) today. This is the third consecutive day. Conventional TA suggests that we should should continue lower and test the $0.66 support. However, in the three days below support the volume has not been building, as it would if strength downward was building, and the low has dropped less than a penny during that time.

It should be noted that today's weakness was produced by a intra-day trend predominantly down all day long. Given that consideration and the fact that the weakness and volume were so minimal I think I can hang with the down leg ending for another day, but improvement needs to occur Monday for me to retain that view.

The fast EMA (yellow squiggly line) continued declining and falling further below the slow EMA (squiggly blue line). It's also further below the rising support.

We almost touched the experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit today. We aren't yet again "pushing" it, but it's too close for comfort. As mentioned yesterday though, all this may be the "Friday effect" I thought might appear.

On my one-year chart, as with the prior four days, it looks like the long-term descending former resistance acted as support. As noted, this allows a continued fall in trading range but also suggests that at some point the range should either fall below it, or more likely I think, begin an up-leg and pull up and away from it as we remain in consolidation mode. I think this still holds but my confidence is being slowly eroded as times passes. Today's marginal continued decline in price range is the cause of that, but is countered by the weak and declining volume.

The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. I had mentioned a few days back that the 50-day should shortly begin a rise, predicated on the end of price decline. Well, we still have price decline but it's so small that the 50-day SMA is almost flat, moving lower only 11/100ths of a penny from yesterday.

The 10-day SMA continued declining and the 20-day, which had stopped declining and rose marginally, declined. The 10-day which was below the 20-day by 1.52 cents is now 1.83 cents below. We need a nice strong rise to stop the increase in separation. As mentioned yesterday, this gap is large enough now that even if strength appears we will take a bit longer get the 10-day back above the 20-day SMA unless the leg up is an immediate big move higher, which I think is unlikely. If we hold here we'll get 9 (was 8) days of declining 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 19 (was 18) days of decline. If we hold here the 50 will decline 2 days (was 3) and then rise 1 day and decline again 11 (was 10) days. The 200-day would fall ~153 (was ~155) days.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, momentum, and Williams %R (still oversold). Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic (deeply oversold), and ADX-related.

Today had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R (deeply oversold and at it's lower bound), full stochastic (deeply oversold and near 0), and ADX-related. Improvement occurred in momentum and MFI (untrusted by me),

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6909 and $0.7985 ($0.7014 and $0.7987 yesterday), are diverging as the lower limit drops more quickly than the upper limit. The mid-point continues in decline.

All in, mixed signals make it difficult to take a position with any confidence. On the one hand a couple important oscillators being deeply oversold, momentum improving and volume being low and declining suggests we are seeing an end to the decline, though the continued weakening in RSI, an important oscillator and not yet oversold, doesn't support that conclusion.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but the short percentage is just above the top of my desired range (needs re-check), which is not enough for me to read it as really bad. The buy percentage fell from the near-term upside likely area into the near-term downside likely area. However, today may have been a "Friday effect" and we came off an overshoot to the upside and maybe this is just the counter-balance to that and the next move(s) might be towards normalcy?

The spread widened sufficiently that I think it's out of the range, barely I guess, where it would suggest consolidation. It was produced by an open low, bounce high and decline the rest of the day, setting new intra-day lows around 12:50, 15:05, 15:15, 15:35 and 15:54 before closing at the last low of the in-hours day, $0.7001, ignoring the AH $0.70 x 100 trade at 16:24. I'm not going to quibble of 1/100th of a penny though.

Anyway, this metric now suggests near-term downside likely, but again, could be a "Friday effect".

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the second consecutive day at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 02/03 is -$0.0407, -5.40%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.1941%, -0.2735%, -0.5653%, -0.5663%, -0.1786%, 0.2106%, 0.3104%, 0.2341%, 0.2301%, and 0.3382%.

All in, if it weren't for the possible "Friday effect" I would say continued near-term weakness, but within medium-term consolidation now, was most likely. As it is I have to suspect that we have finally made the bottom to this down-leg, which I've been thinking for a couple days now. With three days' lows at $0.71 prior to today's $0.70, it's not a long reach to hang on to the call that we've bottomed.

Bill