Added ALDW this week...
Energy is still enigmatic until we get some action from the new sheriff...
CVRR has gone a full year now with no distribution, but don't feel sorry for those that bought last summer as it is almost DOUBLE!...??? Is Carl slapping the ask holding it $1+ ahead of ALDW? There was no surprise followed by a big drop on the latest disappointing 0 distribution announcement. ALDW pays, imo, because of their diversity in the ongoing RINs, crude supply proximity, and regs environment.
Conclusion: Alsphalt, proximity, and having retail outlets is better than larger throughput.
The big leveler of playing field and spreads is the repeal of the export ban, but we don't hear of a lot of crude going out. I suspect the spread change is more based on the price of refined products being readjusted which includes the limited ability by older refineries to handle light shale crude. How much is understood by investors is my question. Gulf coast design is predominantly heavy crude based.
One more thing. I believe ALDW along with parent ALJ are more heavily shorted and held down by the slightly uneducated investment world. They tend to avoid betting against high profile types like Icahn, especially the institutional investor. Are they the pinning hopes on his influence and activism? Comparing these last two MLP small refiner stocks over 2 years shows some fairly different perception. Are they really not that similar? Maybe the factor I did not consider is the negative incident at one of CVRR's plants and the sell off followed by rebound...
Blodbath coming inside the EPA. Understaffers are openly critical of their proposed new boss. Water regs will be changed to HELP farmers, perhaps the ethanol farmers won't see a big drop in corn price.
"You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going because you might not get there."
"The future ain’t what it used to be" "A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore."
-so long Yogi, we will miss you-
