Today's early trades may appear to suggest that something big is happening in the NGL world. Let's take a more penetrating view.....
At your brokerage site you'll find information relating to recent upgrades. If you're not familiar with the process, go to Yahoo!.com---and enter the ticker symbol. You'll find everything there including upgrades and the issuers of same.
Obviously these ratings speak to company strength. But there's more.....
Last night I posted info referring to the continuation of our $1.56/year distribution, at least for the quarter just ended. I also alluded to the CEO's determination to restore the earlier, loftier payout level and he's made this wish of his known to the Board of Directors. He's thinking along lines of $1.76. This amounts to a yield change to the positive of 13%, roughly speaking.
If the CEO and his BOD are connecting and we have every reason to believe it to be the case, then there's ample reason to expect our unit valuation to rise to $25 and higher as this would provide the same (roughly) 7% yield based on the new distribution basis.
Something Pete807 brought out the other day in a private message---and I bring it up here:
NGL's short side is remarkably low---amounting to just .04%!
What this tells me is that people are not about to jump into the sea when the boat is perfectly sound. In other words, nobody in his right mind is willing to let go of a winner, not with an overwhelmingly positive consensus in place.
Units are now at $24.15---9:15am Central time.. I don't bother projecting intraday targets as I know there's no reliable system that will guarantee anything meaningful. But the trend is your friend, as is often said, and I agree that it often proves to be so. Stocks rise and fall on news. A shrewd investor pits good news against perceived durational values within. We examine things carefully and try to come up with a mostly realistic or not-so-realistic pictograph so that we have a personal investment roadmap.
I do believe we are headed for $25+ near-term. I think this is largely consistent with my writings over recent months. When I consider adding to a stock pick, I look at each of the items discussed herein at a minimum. The big question, then, is this:
How much upside do I see that has me comfortably predicting?
I'm on record as expecting at least $30 by late Fall of this year. Now, on the surface, it looks great, doesn't it? After all, if we're talking about a 25% rise from here, what's not to like, right?
2016 brought me a 65.9% gain. Any stock I select as a new entrant into my portfolios has to demonstrate promise of profitability greeater than 25%. But that's me and should not be a standard for others unless they have delivered gains in like amount. Someone early to investing could do a heck of a lot worse than vying for 25%---for sure!!! In fact, Zacks, probably the best of breed in terms of subscription-based opportunities out there, boasts a 26% gain for their portfolio picks.
So pick carefully and always consider your projections for they come about as a result of where you place your money. Be sure to allow for being wrong, too. I ask myself every time I add or sell a portion or all of a stock: Am I prepared to accept the finality of my actions?
I'll often sell a quarter or a third but rarely more than half of any position---UNLESS it's gone sour for me. This leaves me free to grab the next comet by the tail and ride it into a glorious experience awaiting passengers while remaining happy that I saw I might be wrong in taking more decisive action, killing the goose.
Last comment:
Don't trust ANYTHING you may be thinking today! With a new Administration about to take the helm, nobody can possibly predict anything! That means our best decisions will not happen today. Step back, regardless of the "thrust-factor" you may be feeling. After all, a stock market does not operate on the basis of feelings. Whether looking at charts depicting things of an historical nature or our impulses of the moment---businesses always chug along or die as they execute their business plan.
