Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

Quite the day of uncertainty here, right? ALDW has been all over the place but now, as we near the close of the session, things seem to be straightening out somewhat. However, there's no way to accurately predict how we'll finish on the day.

The one thing I know is that we took a serious hit below the belt. However, volume has been too low to point to anything connoting solidarity in terms of public sentiment. In short, we dare not expect anything resembling a "take-away."\

So, I look for a close at or near yesterday's closing number. Exactly one week ago today, ALDW closed at $10.10. I think it's pretty safe to say we're not likely to close beneath that number whereas it looks probable that we could finish a bit higher.

My thinking is that this is a quant setup meaning computers are trying to derail us, frightening enough unit holders into selling without thinking things through carefully. This is fairly standard procedure for some trading entities out there and we need to remind ourselves that the market is never fair or understanding. So we need to remain vigilant at all times and hope to make the most of opportunities presented.

The trick is to keep our eyes on last Friday's close. Then, multiply the difference by today's projected close to determine a ballpark gain in your account. If we close at $10.28, it's an eighteen cent gain---multiplied by my position size of 25,000 and we come up with an overall gain of $4,500. I'd like more but that is certainly acceptable. Frankly, I think momentum favors a close more in the range of yesterday's close.

And now let us prey!