Friday, January 13, 2017 1:35:44 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/12 2017 EOD
The conventional TA would be fairly positive if not for the declining volume, which spoils it all. My unconventional TA is casting negative shadows on the near-term outlook. I continue to believe we are entering a consolidation, are in the process of setting the high of the range (or even going narrowly sideways) and, thanks to my unconventional stuff, have a second day I suspect a negative bias.
Today's intra-day behavior was unremarkable, being the common open high, go a bit higher, come down, hit some flattish periods, and rise into the close. I think the lack of apparent "bid walkers" today accounts for this, mostly, along with reducing volume. The short percentage remains quite high but doesn't suggest shorters getting active I think. I think it's just MMs having to struggle to get some volume, which is how they make their money usually, and resorting to naked shorting, knowing that as that drives price lower (fractions of a penny are sufficient) they can cover their shorts ... That's figuratively, not literally, speaking!
There was one pre-market trade, $0.75 x 200.
09:30-10:26 opened the day with a 451 buy for $0.7538 & $0.74 x 100. Then came 9:31's b/a 5.1K:160 $0.74/7, 9:32's 100 $0.77, 9:33's 2.2K $0.78 and 200 $0.74, 9:34's 100 $0.7630, 9:35's b/a 100:2.6K $0.7630/$0.78, 9:42's b/a 100:900 $0.7631/$0.78, 9:45's 765 $0.7745/$0.7630, 9:50's 6.2K $0.7788 (5K)/$0.78/$0.7501 (100), 9:52's b/a 100:500 $0.7502/$0.78, 9:54's 100 $0.77, 9:58's 900 $0.77, 10:00's 200 $0.77/$0.7502, 10:01's 100 $0.7502, 10:04's 100 $0.77, 10:05's b/a 100:3.3K $0.7502/$0.77, 10:06's 2.1K $0.7699 (2K)/$0.7503, 10:07's 100 $0.7503, 10:09's 200 $0.77/$0.7504, 10:14's b/a 200:7.2K $0.7504/$0.77, 10:14's 100 $0.77, 10:17's 11.7K $0.7700/1, 10:18's 13.1K $0.77 (10K)/$0.7540/$0.76/$0.7500/5/4/ ... 11, 10:19's 2.5K $0.7518/03/40/35, 10:20's 600 $0.75/6/7, 10:21's 100 $0.76, 10:23's 600 $0.76, 10:26's b/a 300:520 $0.7501/99, and the period ended on 10:26's 1K $0.7540.
10:27-10:51 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7500/50, with falling highs, on 10:27's 200 $0.7502. B/a at 10:40 was 2.2K:100 $0.7500/44, 10:43 2.2K:1.7K $0.7500/29, 10:50 1.3K:2.1K $0.7500/38 (offers dropping rapidly), 10:53 278:2.2K $0.7500/33. The period ended on 10:51's 500 $0.75.
10:52-12:38 began an extremely low/no-volume $0.74/5, through 11:04's 1K $0.7400/18, on 10:53's 800 $0.7402/$0.75. B/a at 10:57 was 78:100 $0.7500/34 (backed by presented 200:320 $0.7402/$0.7599). 11:05's 6.8K $0.74/$0.7377/12/$0.7599/8/$0.7345/$0.75/$0.7698 (100) began extremely low/no-volume $0.74/$0.7598, with very slowly rising lows and falling highs. B/a at 11:10 was 600:400 $0.7403/$0.76, 11:17 600:400 $0.7403/$0.76, 11:32 400:300 $0.7407/$0.7599, 11:48 700:200 $0.7408/$0.7598, 12:05 500:200 $0.7410/$0.7605, 12:17 300:400 $0.7410/99. Volume was interrupted by 12:27's 8.1K$0.747. B/a at 12:32 was 400:100 $0.7411/69. The period ended on 12:38's 6.6K $0.7412/66.
12:39-14:55, after eleven no-trades minutes that had b/a at 12:48 of 200:3.7K $0.7412/69, began mostly extremely low/no-volume $$0.7455/69 on 12:50's $3.7K $0.7455/68. B/a at 13:02 was 300:3K $0.7414/69, 13:07 6.2K:700 $0.7455/69, 13:07 6.1K:1K $0.7455/70 (MMs rattling offers $0.7469 (600)/70 (1K)), 13:26 6.2K:900 $0.7455/69 (MMs still rattling offers), 13:34 6.2K:600 $0.7455/69 (MMs still rattling offers the same), 13:47 4.2K:900 $0.7455/69 (offers still being rattled), 14:02 4.2K:1K $0.7455/69 (offers still being rattled), 14:07 4.1K700 $0.7455/7, 14:17 4.1K:700 $0.7455/7, internet down/up/down/ ... so the rest of the details are spotty - finally fixed about 17:00 after new drop from pole across the street. The period ended on 14:55's 400 $0.7455.
14:56-15:50 began a very low-volume widened range, $0.7310/$0.7470, with the high essentially unchanged but the lows dropped. B/a at 15:32 was 300:584 $0.7310/$0.7470. The period ended on 15:50's 100 $0.747.
15:51-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, just did an extremely low/no-volume push up into the close to set the stage (on the charts anyway) for tomorrow. This was accomplished with 15:54's100 $0.75, 15:59's 100 $0.75 and 16:00's closing buy of 268 for $0.76.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 0 4K+) totaling 25,500, 22.91% of day's volume, with a $0.7589 VWAP. For the volume, the count seems rational and the percentage is in the normal range. There were no "larger larger trades".
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, the higher low and high notwithstanding, has volume behavior that continues to suggest we are entering consolidation with the top of the range being defined by the current behavior. Since we apparently had no "bid walkers" present today, this looks like it might be reality. It's starting to look like a predominantly sideways move, rather than swings within a wide range, as the consolidation behavior.
The fast EMA rose for the second day and the slow EMA continued declining at a relatively steady rate. We continue having something suggesting the fast could cross above the slow in the near-term, but for the volume. It sure looks like we are consolidating though and I don't think we'll get the cross. We're likely to see the fast EMA flatten or drop as a leg down within consolidation begins.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit continues running essentially flat while the upper limit continues descending at a slower rate, continuing to move the mid-point lower. Trading range was wrapped around the mid-point but slightly to the high side.
On my one-year chart I noted yesterday { If we hold this range the 10-day SMA could see a stop to the descent tomorrow. } Today did it and the 10-day SMA made the first turn up since 12/1/2016. That's a long decline since. If we hold here we can get another three days of rise before we start to fall again. Since the 20-day is falling rapidly we might get a cross above it but I can't think that will do much for us ... yet. All the other SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 20-day would continue to decline 8 more days, the 50 for 40 more days and the 200 maybe 175 days (visual estimate).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me, left oversold), momentum (above neutral), Williams %R (above neutral), and ADX-related. Weakening occurred in full stochastic and it moved below neutral.
Today had improvement in everything but full stochastic and ADX-related. everything but momentum and Williams %R are still below neutral. Nothing is oversold or overbought.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6961 and $0.7914 ($0.6957 and $0.7929 yesterday), continue converging as the upper limit declines while the lower limit is almost flat. This moves the mid-point lower.
All in, the volume is the spoiler here that, for me negates the apparent positives in the 10-day SMA and oscillators. It also makes the movement of the OLHC metrics above much less reliable as indicators going forward.
I'm (stubbornly?) sticking with consolidation being entered and the high range of that in the process of being set by the recent action.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys diverged as the short percentage was essentially flat while the buy percentage fell back to Tuesday's level. Recall that yesterday I said about { ... the buy percentage is at a level that is unsustainable - suggesting it's an outlier that is starting a short-term trend that is not sustainable. } The percentage is again back into Tuesday's mentioned "no man's land", giving no hint for price direction coming near-term.
The short percentage remains much too high and I think is telling us that weakness is likely to appear very quickly.
The spread widened again and, worse, was set by an open high, go higher and then trend, generally with the normal flattish periods included, lower all day until just before the close. The close was anemic even so as it could only make a penny above the mid-point of the day. Whomever is setting those closing prices is having a tough time of getting upward movement, as we all have noticed.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the third day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 12/07 is -$0.1987, -20.83%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, and -0.9164%. Can't seem to get a good consistent trend going on these.
All in, my unconventional stuff is now much more suggestive of near-term negative moves.
Bill
The conventional TA would be fairly positive if not for the declining volume, which spoils it all. My unconventional TA is casting negative shadows on the near-term outlook. I continue to believe we are entering a consolidation, are in the process of setting the high of the range (or even going narrowly sideways) and, thanks to my unconventional stuff, have a second day I suspect a negative bias.
Today's intra-day behavior was unremarkable, being the common open high, go a bit higher, come down, hit some flattish periods, and rise into the close. I think the lack of apparent "bid walkers" today accounts for this, mostly, along with reducing volume. The short percentage remains quite high but doesn't suggest shorters getting active I think. I think it's just MMs having to struggle to get some volume, which is how they make their money usually, and resorting to naked shorting, knowing that as that drives price lower (fractions of a penny are sufficient) they can cover their shorts ... That's figuratively, not literally, speaking!
There was one pre-market trade, $0.75 x 200.
09:30-10:26 opened the day with a 451 buy for $0.7538 & $0.74 x 100. Then came 9:31's b/a 5.1K:160 $0.74/7, 9:32's 100 $0.77, 9:33's 2.2K $0.78 and 200 $0.74, 9:34's 100 $0.7630, 9:35's b/a 100:2.6K $0.7630/$0.78, 9:42's b/a 100:900 $0.7631/$0.78, 9:45's 765 $0.7745/$0.7630, 9:50's 6.2K $0.7788 (5K)/$0.78/$0.7501 (100), 9:52's b/a 100:500 $0.7502/$0.78, 9:54's 100 $0.77, 9:58's 900 $0.77, 10:00's 200 $0.77/$0.7502, 10:01's 100 $0.7502, 10:04's 100 $0.77, 10:05's b/a 100:3.3K $0.7502/$0.77, 10:06's 2.1K $0.7699 (2K)/$0.7503, 10:07's 100 $0.7503, 10:09's 200 $0.77/$0.7504, 10:14's b/a 200:7.2K $0.7504/$0.77, 10:14's 100 $0.77, 10:17's 11.7K $0.7700/1, 10:18's 13.1K $0.77 (10K)/$0.7540/$0.76/$0.7500/5/4/ ... 11, 10:19's 2.5K $0.7518/03/40/35, 10:20's 600 $0.75/6/7, 10:21's 100 $0.76, 10:23's 600 $0.76, 10:26's b/a 300:520 $0.7501/99, and the period ended on 10:26's 1K $0.7540.
10:27-10:51 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7500/50, with falling highs, on 10:27's 200 $0.7502. B/a at 10:40 was 2.2K:100 $0.7500/44, 10:43 2.2K:1.7K $0.7500/29, 10:50 1.3K:2.1K $0.7500/38 (offers dropping rapidly), 10:53 278:2.2K $0.7500/33. The period ended on 10:51's 500 $0.75.
10:52-12:38 began an extremely low/no-volume $0.74/5, through 11:04's 1K $0.7400/18, on 10:53's 800 $0.7402/$0.75. B/a at 10:57 was 78:100 $0.7500/34 (backed by presented 200:320 $0.7402/$0.7599). 11:05's 6.8K $0.74/$0.7377/12/$0.7599/8/$0.7345/$0.75/$0.7698 (100) began extremely low/no-volume $0.74/$0.7598, with very slowly rising lows and falling highs. B/a at 11:10 was 600:400 $0.7403/$0.76, 11:17 600:400 $0.7403/$0.76, 11:32 400:300 $0.7407/$0.7599, 11:48 700:200 $0.7408/$0.7598, 12:05 500:200 $0.7410/$0.7605, 12:17 300:400 $0.7410/99. Volume was interrupted by 12:27's 8.1K$0.747. B/a at 12:32 was 400:100 $0.7411/69. The period ended on 12:38's 6.6K $0.7412/66.
12:39-14:55, after eleven no-trades minutes that had b/a at 12:48 of 200:3.7K $0.7412/69, began mostly extremely low/no-volume $$0.7455/69 on 12:50's $3.7K $0.7455/68. B/a at 13:02 was 300:3K $0.7414/69, 13:07 6.2K:700 $0.7455/69, 13:07 6.1K:1K $0.7455/70 (MMs rattling offers $0.7469 (600)/70 (1K)), 13:26 6.2K:900 $0.7455/69 (MMs still rattling offers), 13:34 6.2K:600 $0.7455/69 (MMs still rattling offers the same), 13:47 4.2K:900 $0.7455/69 (offers still being rattled), 14:02 4.2K:1K $0.7455/69 (offers still being rattled), 14:07 4.1K700 $0.7455/7, 14:17 4.1K:700 $0.7455/7, internet down/up/down/ ... so the rest of the details are spotty - finally fixed about 17:00 after new drop from pole across the street. The period ended on 14:55's 400 $0.7455.
14:56-15:50 began a very low-volume widened range, $0.7310/$0.7470, with the high essentially unchanged but the lows dropped. B/a at 15:32 was 300:584 $0.7310/$0.7470. The period ended on 15:50's 100 $0.747.
15:51-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, just did an extremely low/no-volume push up into the close to set the stage (on the charts anyway) for tomorrow. This was accomplished with 15:54's100 $0.75, 15:59's 100 $0.75 and 16:00's closing buy of 268 for $0.76.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 0 4K+) totaling 25,500, 22.91% of day's volume, with a $0.7589 VWAP. For the volume, the count seems rational and the percentage is in the normal range. There were no "larger larger trades".
Nothing unusual in the breakdown - typical open high, sink, recover into the close, all on extremely low volume with VWAPs and buy percentages acting as would be expected. As mentioned yesterday, the high buy percentages seen couldn't hold and we are now back into normal behavior, which is not necessarily good news.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:26 45311 $0.7400 $0.7800 $34,807.12 $0.7682 40.71% 55.73% incl 09:50 $0.7788 5,000 10:18 $0.7700 7,500
10:51 4733 $0.7500 $0.7550 $3,552.38 $0.7506 4.25% 51.10%
12:38 29363 $0.7312 $0.7698 $21,890.29 $0.7455 26.38% 46.08% Incl 12:27 $0.7470 8,000 12:38 $0.7414 5,000
14:55 23936 $0.7412 $0.7470 $17,857.76 $0.7461 21.50% 45.74%
15:50 6000 $0.7310 $0.7470 $4,456.90 $0.7428 5.39% 46.13%
16:00 468 $0.7500 $0.7600 $353.68 $0.7557 0.42% 46.27%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
As usual, the volume is telling the real story here - no strength in the apparent moves up, leaving me still thinking we're entering a short-term consolidation.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.51% 0.14% 0.87% 1.33% -9.07%
Prior 2.74% 1.39% 3.11% 1.05% -42.39%
On my minimal chart, the higher low and high notwithstanding, has volume behavior that continues to suggest we are entering consolidation with the top of the range being defined by the current behavior. Since we apparently had no "bid walkers" present today, this looks like it might be reality. It's starting to look like a predominantly sideways move, rather than swings within a wide range, as the consolidation behavior.
The fast EMA rose for the second day and the slow EMA continued declining at a relatively steady rate. We continue having something suggesting the fast could cross above the slow in the near-term, but for the volume. It sure looks like we are consolidating though and I don't think we'll get the cross. We're likely to see the fast EMA flatten or drop as a leg down within consolidation begins.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit continues running essentially flat while the upper limit continues descending at a slower rate, continuing to move the mid-point lower. Trading range was wrapped around the mid-point but slightly to the high side.
On my one-year chart I noted yesterday { If we hold this range the 10-day SMA could see a stop to the descent tomorrow. } Today did it and the 10-day SMA made the first turn up since 12/1/2016. That's a long decline since. If we hold here we can get another three days of rise before we start to fall again. Since the 20-day is falling rapidly we might get a cross above it but I can't think that will do much for us ... yet. All the other SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 20-day would continue to decline 8 more days, the 50 for 40 more days and the 200 maybe 175 days (visual estimate).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me, left oversold), momentum (above neutral), Williams %R (above neutral), and ADX-related. Weakening occurred in full stochastic and it moved below neutral.
Today had improvement in everything but full stochastic and ADX-related. everything but momentum and Williams %R are still below neutral. Nothing is oversold or overbought.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6961 and $0.7914 ($0.6957 and $0.7929 yesterday), continue converging as the upper limit declines while the lower limit is almost flat. This moves the mid-point lower.
All in, the volume is the spoiler here that, for me negates the apparent positives in the 10-day SMA and oscillators. It also makes the movement of the OLHC metrics above much less reliable as indicators going forward.
I'm (stubbornly?) sticking with consolidation being entered and the high range of that in the process of being set by the recent action.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys diverged as the short percentage was essentially flat while the buy percentage fell back to Tuesday's level. Recall that yesterday I said about { ... the buy percentage is at a level that is unsustainable - suggesting it's an outlier that is starting a short-term trend that is not sustainable. } The percentage is again back into Tuesday's mentioned "no man's land", giving no hint for price direction coming near-term.
The short percentage remains much too high and I think is telling us that weakness is likely to appear very quickly.
The spread widened again and, worse, was set by an open high, go higher and then trend, generally with the normal flattish periods included, lower all day until just before the close. The close was anemic even so as it could only make a penny above the mid-point of the day. Whomever is setting those closing prices is having a tough time of getting upward movement, as we all have noticed.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the third day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 12/07 is -$0.1987, -20.83%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, and -0.9164%. Can't seem to get a good consistent trend going on these.
All in, my unconventional stuff is now much more suggestive of near-term negative moves.
Bill
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