Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

Don't lose heart, friends...the whole market is slightly shaky. Naturally it will bring all things down a bit. Not meaningful although I look at the mathematical averages and consider how ALDW does in comparison to the general market. At this moment, ALDW is down 0.38% while the DOW is down 0.29%. Not much of a difference there.

I think people are bathing in solid gains dating back to Tuesday of this week. I know I was higher by a lot and friends were right there at my side enjoying the sunshine. So today, methinks folks are wondering how effectively they'll be able to hold onto those gains.

The truth is that it won't matter in the end. What will be will be, certainly. But the decisions we make to bring about a more desirable future result is everything. So I added to two positions this morning right out of the gate. One is higher while the other is treading water. But as I look towards tomorrow, I'm thinking both will be recovering.

ALDW isn't going to suffer a major setback any time soon. Not only has the crack spread been improving measurably, but units loom ever more conspicuously as we trudge closer to the day on which corporate guidance is to be issued. We last went ex-Distribution on Nov. 8th. That means we should expect to go ex-D towards the end of the first week of February. Around that time we'll be hearing from our CEO regarding the amount of the next distribution, if any, along with details pertinent to the scheduling of the earnings release and the usual conference call. Very important, of course, will be the issuance of the date of record governing those in line to receive the next distribution.

As we move close towards the above mentioned announcements, then, I expect to see our unit pricing moving towards the upside. If, for example, the payout is to be 20 cents, then that would reflect a yield of about 8%. That's pretty darned good in these difficult energy times. And I'd expect to find units rising until the payout is closer to 6%. That would indicate a valuation of about $12-$12.50.