Monday, November 28, 2016 3:16:59 AM
Backtesting spot gold circa 2005...part 2
Now here is what the next 6 months did to finish 2005.
You can see that right in the place where I was watching the sideways "wave 4" sliding along...my bias was to see maybe a dip to retest the 400 area, as price was hanging around the 418 support level, I couldn't say I was ready to jump in at 418.(Maybe its harder to back test and being unable to feel the momentum of the times) in this case,back in summer 2005.spot Gold did hold the support line there and began its "wave 5" rally. and ended the year hitting the 543 target....which also represents a Double for spot gold.from its 2001 Bottom. a milestone,that took just over 4 years.
(Compare that time frame with the surging rally that took Gold at the 2008 crash bottom 681 to a near 3 bagger(1923) in only 2 1/2 years. and spot gold in the 2011 rally had wave 5 Fib topping targets at 2100 (not 1900) and a cycle time around 2014.
But getting back to this 2005 spot Gold chart....
It will be interesting now to see what kind of resistance kicks in for 2006 and how much of a pullback gold faces in 2006. This 545/565 area would be a Large wave cycle completion target.so based on the tool set I'm using, I might be anticipating a pullback in 2006 to retest the Fibonacci retrace areas,around 400-420 all over again....( much like what is happening to spot gold now in 2016,as it pulls back from 1377 to 1177,after starting at the bottom around 1077 (1045) )
Here's the chart portion to end 2005,as the wave 4 took off to end the year with the 'wave 5' rally to the Fibonacci target zone.
...........................................................
Now here is what the next 6 months did to finish 2005.
You can see that right in the place where I was watching the sideways "wave 4" sliding along...my bias was to see maybe a dip to retest the 400 area, as price was hanging around the 418 support level, I couldn't say I was ready to jump in at 418.(Maybe its harder to back test and being unable to feel the momentum of the times) in this case,back in summer 2005.spot Gold did hold the support line there and began its "wave 5" rally. and ended the year hitting the 543 target....which also represents a Double for spot gold.from its 2001 Bottom. a milestone,that took just over 4 years.
(Compare that time frame with the surging rally that took Gold at the 2008 crash bottom 681 to a near 3 bagger(1923) in only 2 1/2 years. and spot gold in the 2011 rally had wave 5 Fib topping targets at 2100 (not 1900) and a cycle time around 2014.
But getting back to this 2005 spot Gold chart....
It will be interesting now to see what kind of resistance kicks in for 2006 and how much of a pullback gold faces in 2006. This 545/565 area would be a Large wave cycle completion target.so based on the tool set I'm using, I might be anticipating a pullback in 2006 to retest the Fibonacci retrace areas,around 400-420 all over again....( much like what is happening to spot gold now in 2016,as it pulls back from 1377 to 1177,after starting at the bottom around 1077 (1045) )
Here's the chart portion to end 2005,as the wave 4 took off to end the year with the 'wave 5' rally to the Fibonacci target zone.
...........................................................
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