123Tom's TA study group

[oldmystic]

You're welcome T. Glad you find the charts helpful. The phrase is from a soup commercial from my childhood in which mom is preparing the soup and the kids come in yelling "is it soup yet?" I used it in this case to mean, "are we there yet?" , or will price bottom in this area? You can see from the logarithmic scale charts that AVXL is sitting on a very long term trend line. Is it soup yet?
https://invst.ly/14jtlw
https://invst.ly/14jtn0

[TWilson07]

Thank you for all of your charts, I appreciate it. Sorry for the ignorant question, can you explain what soup means?

[oldmystic]

Is it soup yet?
https://invst.ly/14j56d

[oldmystic]

Fibonacci time, logarithmic space and the case for 3.35 on 5
https://invst.ly/14h7wa

[Kentucky123]

The only positive I see is that we are oversold on all timeframes. Dropping below 3.65 takes us below 300 million market cap and out of the Russell. The shorts know it and will probably kick it down. XBI needs to reverse for there to be a chance. I could see this dropping below 2 with no news.

[oldmystic]

You nailed it. What next?

In the chart posted below, notice that in the period labeled A, the 1.618 projection of the initial decline from 31.50 to 16.50 predicts the intermediate term bottom at 7.15. Applying the same logic to the periods labeled B and C predicts a low of 2.85. The timing here could coincide with the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 or the possibility that AVXL is dropped from the index altogether and the selling of shares that would necessarily follow. https://invst.ly/14h1m2

[oldmystic]

OldMystics monthly is awesome.

Thanks for the love fellas. I will update my view as it takes shape.
Let's see if this trendline holds: https://invst.ly/14gz1y

[Citrati]

If 3.60 that was tested today fails and becomes resistance then entire zone down to 2.76 red line is in play.
If for whatever reason 2.76 fails then anything down to 2.20 is in play.
Just got to see step by step day by this goes.
OldMystics monthly is awesome.
This I have taken my numbers from is a weekly. Need a paid stockcharts account to view. Sorry for that

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04022899542&a=1660105214

Couldn't get a screenshot to post from my desktop. I stopped being able to when they changed the format about 3 or 4 weeks ago. Too old and lazy to chase it down. Haha

[Kentucky123]

You nailed it. What next?

[oldmystic]

3.35 by 05

[Kentucky123]

Thank you

[Citrati]

I am not ready to declare unrecoverable.
Broken in the sense that there is nothing to gauge where a bottom might be.
Broken in the sense that it is going to take a lot of glue to repair price.
Broken in the sense that there is no TA that will get it back to even the bottom of the gap area.
In the last 5 months nothing has gotten price above the down trending midline while lower bands continue getting pushed downward.
Major news is needed. Until that happens price is broken and in pieces. It will require fundamentals leading the way.
This is just my opinion. Positive news trumps charts and disappointment. Sure would like to see some come our way.

[Kentucky123]

You mean it is not in a position to recover?

[Citrati]

Is broken too strong of a descriptor to place on AVXL?

[kevindenver]

Yep, the T/A is looking pretty ugly.

[Citrati]

Samo, samo. About to set another 4 year closing low. Need substance. Nice to do presentations, however they no longer move the needle or support price.

[kevindenver]

$AVXL trying to create a support today if it can string together some green.

Ugly technicals aside, a near term event on my horizon to help create a market cap based support is announcement of the Parkinson's Disease P3 trial start sponsored by MJFF and Shake it Up Foundation Australia.

[XenaLives]

It is an example of egregious manipulation enabled by AI trading algos which can overwhelm human reasoning that takes place at a lower response level.

Human investors who fail to comprehend this variable are so screwed...

[Citrati]

New all most 4 year lower lows as downward continues. Weekly chart doesn't give any signs this can't continue. Only news can trump what is happening.

Weekly https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12046728087

Daily. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32880584314

[Citrati]

Rejection again at the daily midlines. Down channel samo, samo. with lower highs. If general market action and XBI continue on their current direction then AVXL will be setting a lower low and all time low. Market is definite detriment to AVXL price in this period of no solid news.

[Citrati]

Potential bottoming action. Testing the daily bb and kchannel midlines again. Can it create support this time? Only the shadow knows.
Price is also close to testing the upper down channel trend line.
Note the quantity and quality of overhead resistance even if the down trend line is broken. Need some news, not just chart movement.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47856182655&a=1637906248[

[Citrati]

4 year low for AVXL. Down channel on the daily continues. Weekly chart has room for more down as does the daily channel.
This action will not be halted by a chart. IMO, it is an issue of company fundamentals.
Sure the daily upper channel down trend line could be tested, but what is going to actually reverse the trend? Positive news of a fundamental nature will be required. JMO.

[Kentucky123]

Looks right. Stinks though.

[kevindenver]

Thankfully I have the advantage of riding low basis shares and of being very well off financially, making $AVXL more of a hobby stock to follow for the "story" and science potential. Thus, I have the luxury of time to let the story play out.

[Citrati]

Hopefully you have been able to sell some rips and buy some dips to reduce or eliminate your risk.
One has little to no stress when the risk price is so far below the buy in price that even BK is not scary when compared to the actual investment.
Riding "free" is a great relaxer, while giving the needed time for bio approvals.

Green Trades.

[kevindenver]

Agreed, from a technical standpoint $AVXL is in a very precarious position.

As I've stated before, I'm in $AVXL for the "news" and follow the technicals as a side hobby. I have made various biotech bets in companies that modulate Sigma 1 and muscarinic receptors of which $AVXL is in that group.

[Citrati]

Yep, your and my daily agree. Fancy that. 🤔

Green Trades.

[Citrati]

By my count, the AVXL bb midline (20SMA) has been tested at least 14 times and rejected since end of January 2024.
If the potential double bottom, fails with confirmation then things could get really ugly without strong news.
Since the gap down, the down channel has been unrelenting.
Fingers crossed and rabbits foot out that this recent 5 candle formation is a bottom.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p47856182655&a=1637906248

Green Trades.

[oldmystic]

Attention has shifted to 3-71 and the Phase 2 study in Schizophrenia scheduled to complete on 05/15.
https://invst.ly/143uc2
https://invst.ly/143uww

[kevindenver]

There appears to be some signs of support with the first test at the 20 day SMA for $AVXL

[Kentucky123]

It looks real ugly. Would love to see a reversal but not real hopeful. Oversold but could get much worse. Yuk

[Citrati]

Ouch. Price closed crashing into the lower daily bb. If tomorrow confirms then pushing that line and price lower gains in odds.

[Citrati]

Skinny red uptrend line used to be a blue line. Now red to show that it failed and adjusted the blue uptrend to show present. Daily.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p53478026961&a=1580806866

Monthly Look not looking very good.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74367434269&a=1593859224

[Kentucky123]

I do not know about the 6.4 million share trade but it is there on the chart. Volume precedes price so someone wanted to change. Bollinger bands are very narrow and there are positive divergences. 32 months in a decline is long in the tooth. I assume the shorts and BP are trying for a bear hug. Something has to give as price is at the apex of the triangle.

[kevindenver]

Hmmm... $AVXL 6.4 million volume?
I know it was triple witching and some fund families did some rebalancing/reconstitutions, but seems odd.

I'm already of the opinion that crossing session trades are sketch and abusive, but it's a valid trading mechanic. Just need to live it with for now. And while I'm ranting into the void, the next regulatory target should be for more "short disclosure" within the industry.

I see a technical base has been forming too and this time independent of the broader indexes which it a trend change of note.

Hope the 123 regulars have been well.

[Kentucky123]

Thanks for the update

[Citrati]

AVXL price bounced off the downtrend line and now resting on the uptrend line. Still heading into the apex of the triangle. Ever tightening.
Will it break up or down? Price right in middle of current support zone. See chart in linked post I replied to.

[Citrati]

Yesterday had a solid close above midlines. Need follow through confirmation Monday. If that happens and holds then 4/8/13ema's will be positively stacked and price can attempt a go at 5.75 area, which is beginning of strongest resistance zone. How price handles the down angled 50period, currently at 6.04 will determine whether price stalls and retraces, pauses to consolidate etc.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75850587929

Green Trades.

[Citrati]

AVXL still struggling to make a higher low.
Some chart positives but lots of obvious resistance prices and zones to work through. 4.96 needs to confirm still as a base and higher low.
Can midlines become support? Upward is not possible until they do.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46753137316

[XenaLives]

Tryin' to make it real - compared to what.???

Tom and his definition or "most posted on and charted" may have no connection to reality...


THINKABBOUDIT!!!!!!!

[Citrati]

Duh, reallly?????
The only most posted on and charted stock on this board of Tom’s recently. ROTFL. 😂

[XenaLives]

"Daily low'" for what , where, how, and WTF!!!! ?????

[Citrati]

4.85 today is a 3 year low. Traveling for another week so will look at and post a chart of possible lows if 4.90 won’t hold when I get back home and can use a desktop rather than phone.

Green Trades

[Kentucky123]

Regrettably

[oldmystic]

3.35 by 05
https://invst.ly/13mu37

[Citrati]

Wow, 4.90 low definitely in play now.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17082082458

[Citrati]

Have been looking at AVXL on a 2 1/2year daily with only longer term SMA's. I find it very interesting how the 400sma (Orange line) has capped price since Feb 2022. Then the 200sma (pink line) is interesting The interplay of the 50sma with both the 100sma and 200 sma provides some more interesting information.
The keltner channel and the BB's illustrate price excesses both up and down beyond standard deviations.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79928802410

[Citrati]

Unfortunately, it looks like AVXL may be following the market until it gets sustainable traction from news. The market is unhealthy and the economy is on life support. Bidenomics is accelerating debt in every area. Business failures are increasing rapidly. only a matter of time until supply chain disruptions for many reasons and sectors are major news again. And on and on.

[Kentucky123]

There are positive divergences on RSI and MACD. Stochastics oversold and a double bottom on the weekly. A lot of resistance overhead but it has the potential to be explosive if volume follows. JMHO

[XenaLives]

That us due to the weight of trades on the higher end...

Thinkabboudit...