Friday, the day following Thanksgiving, and ALDW did pretty much as expected---testing long term investors' footing.
This boy wasn't bothered much if at all as it was to be expected. We've had a brilliant run higher over a short period of time and it was fitting that things retrace for the moment.
On Wednesday we saw the first solid evidence of a pullback and I think most of us sensed there'd be more bloodletting before the massacre can be declared officially over.
I'd placed a GTC order for a thousand units of ALDW on the books a week or so ago. The price was set at $8.50. During the final hour of today's shortened session it went through with ease. Watching like a hawk, I managed to tack on an extra 500 units at $8.48.
So this is where I now stand:
23,500 units of ALDW with a cost basis of $8.73.
This involves a lot of money for me, make no mistake. On the other hand, next week OPEC meets, ostensibly to come to terms regarding oil lifting outputs allowed each member country. With Iran and Iraq the primary dissenters holding things in sway, I suspect Saudi Arabia will privately assist each of the other countries by securing them somewhat, financially. Maintaining some sort of balance is absolutely critical for those three countries to continue on their march towards prosperity and the independence that comes with and from it. So if S.A. has to "loan" a little? No big deal. America does this all the time to get what it wants.
In keeping with the geopolitical drama, I see some sort of deal happening next week. Since we are not part of that Arab consortium, any agreed upon cuts will likely result in the US reverting back to "drill, baby, drill! mode. That will trickle down to cheaper gas prices at the pump and certainly less dependence upon foreign hydrocarbon sources.
Most important for us is this: U.S. refiners will be uniquely positioned to profit from the lower priced raw material and this will have a profound impact on the crack spread enhancing the upside.
So while the pressure is on me and I do feel it, I'm liking the environment enough to revel in the opportunity to participate more fully than I'd previously expected.
I know some others here have also seen fit to add to their positions.
Happy post-Turkey Day burping, everybody!
