Friday, November 11, 2016 9:07:39 AM
Better late or never?
In aggregate, only today's volume, spread and short percentage are negative. However, these are significant enough that I suspect we've topped. I would expect the beginning of at least a short-term consolidation with reducing volume. One possible outcome of this could be a bullish (reverse) head and shoulders. Part of that is a re-trace to somewhere around the left shoulder level and this will be indistinguishable from a normal re-trace that may go lower and do a big leg down or start a sideways channel with support around the left shoulder level.
So my thinking right now is the start of some sort of consolidation (H & S formation is one form) is now in the cards. Whether we are more likely to get a bullish H & S or a more typical (for us!) sideways form is beyond me right now.
Well, an unusual day in that the early drop was followed by a big up, reasonably short ~1/2 the rise re-trace, a rise to even higher levels, flat, rise, a wide flattish period, a small drop and flat and a close high. In aggregate a generally big up day with no intra-day hint of weakness as buy percentage was quite strong all day.
There was one pre-market trade of 400 shares for $0.89.
09:30-09:50 opened the day with 4,945 buy for $0.86 & 590 more $0.86/$0.8783 to begin a low-volume, but rising volume, drop to the day's low of $0.8402. That included 9:38's 267 $0.8545, 9:39's 4.5K $0.8602, 9:40's 9.2K $0.8503/9->$0.8500/1->$0.8540, 9:41's 4.3K $0.8500/13->$0.86, 9:43's 200 $0.8500/1, 9:44's 5.4K $0.8609->$0.86->$0.85, 9:45's 11.5K $0.8609->$0.85, 9:47's 1.8K $0.8500/1->$0.8609->$0.8403, 9:48's 100 $0.8608, 9:49's 400 $0.8403/99, and the period ended on 9:50's 4K $0.8450/99->$0.8498/$0.8500/1.
09:51-10:44 began mostly very low/no-volume, interspersed with higher-volume periods, long climb from $0.8500/50 on 09:51's 700 $0.8502/3. B/a at 9:55 could not be determined as the bots were heavy fast in, fast out on the bid at different levels. It the hit 9:57's 49.5K $0.8563/$0.8699, 10:11's 700 $0.8701/2, 10:20's 100 $0.90, 10:41's6K $0.9044/$0.91 and the period ended on 10:44's ~9.5K $0.9124/98.
10:45-11:01 did a short mid-range mostly low/medium-volume drop beginning with 10:46's 100 $0.9174, hit 10:52's 900 $0.910/5 and ended the period on 11:00's 48.8K $0.9100/34->$0.9095->$0.9020->$0.9004. The period ended on 11:01's ~6.7K $0.9001->$0.8823.
11:02-11:46 began a mostly low/medium-volume climb on 11:02's ~3.1K $0.8820->$0.8957/8/9->$0.9001, hit 11:18's 10K $0.9114, 11:26's 34.2K $0.915/$0.92, and ended the period on 11:46's 4.6K $0.9269/70.
11:47-13:06, after one no-trades minute, began a long flattish low/no-volume $0.92/$0.9301 on 11:48's $0.9254/62. The period ended on 13:06's 300$0.9295.
13:07-13:39 began mostly low-volume wide $0.9153/$0.9399 on 13:07's 13.2K $0.9205/$0.9399. The period ended on 13:39's ~800 $0.9201/$0.9336.
13:40-14:20 began very narrow, very low/no-volume $0.9400/30 after 13:41's 20.2K $0.9449 and ended the period on 14:20's 1.7K $0.9395/$0.9419.
14:21-14:48 began a short large drop with 14:21's 58.3K $0.9390/6->$0.9213->$0.9218->$0.9210->$0.9195/6->$0.9103, went low/medium sideways $0.91xx/$0.93xx (low end of it), and ended the period on 14:48's 300 $0.931.
14:49-16:00 began very low/no-volume low-$0.91xx-$0.93 on 14:49's 100 $0.9295 and stayed in that range to end the period on higher volume with 15:52-:59's 53.6K $0.9200/98 and 16:00's 300 $0.935.
There were two AH trades totaling 144 shares for $0.90.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 29 larger trades (>=5K & 8 4K+) totaling 276,881, 40.86% of day's volume, with a $0.9119 VWAP. For the day's trade volume, the count is normal but the percentage of day's volume is high. One can assume this is due to various parties moving into/out of their positions depending on their expectations of for the results reporting this evening. There were also a fair number of "larger larger trades", suggesting a number of inter/intra-broker trades went off "behind the curtain" provided for such trades by NASDAQ. This might suppress the daily short percentage, although with the amount of MM/shorter activity (and throw in some momo/day traders) I surmise through the recent days and the distrust of $CPST I really expect short percentage will be higher than one might expect.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:50 47535 $0.8402 $0.8900 $40,761.75 $0.8575 7.01% 65.47% Incl 09:39 $0.8602 4480 09:40:41 $0.8609 4700
09:44 $0.8600 4700 09:45:08 $0.8609 10000
10:44 99053 $0.8502 $0.9198 $87,217.05 $0.8805 14.62% 76.95% Incl 09:57 $0.8699 11500 28300 $0.8686 4800
10:44 $0.9197 7100
11:01 75907 $0.8823 $0.9199 $69,119.17 $0.9106 11.20% 57.63% Incl 10:50 $0.9196 13413 11:00 $0.9100 5000
11:00 $0.9100 5000 20913
11:46 124032 $0.8820 $0.9270 $113,597.11 $0.9159 18.30% 61.68% Incl 11:20 $0.9048 4700 11:26 $0.9200 4000
11:38 $0.9200 4355
11:41 $0.9250 5000 11900
13:06 79649 $0.9200 $0.9301 $73,705.19 $0.9254 11.75% 60.19% Incl 12:09 $0.9295 10000 12:41 $0.9265 5000
13:39 46159 $0.9153 $0.9399 $42,905.74 $0.9295 6.81% 57.36% Incl 13:08 $0.9300 11700
14:20 41871 $0.9200 $0.9449 $39,255.34 $0.9375 6.18% 56.14% Incl 14:18 $0.9400 9900
14:48 85519 $0.9102 $0.9396 $79,867.08 $0.9339 12.62% 60.07% Incl 14:21 $0.9396 4500 21900 23500
14:44 $0.9330 14220
16:00 74485 $0.9100 $0.9350 $68,761.51 $0.9232 10.99% 58.51% Incl 15:52 $0.9300 11300 15:53 $0.9201 5000
15:54 $0.9200 5000 $0.9201 5000
19:29 144 $0.9000 $0.9000 $129.60 $0.9000 0.02% 58.49%
Today, and the last few days, looks a lot like a typical run-up into earnings. Regardless, a good day for those in a long position and the momo/day traders that may have gotten in much lower.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 4.88% 2.46% 7.38% 7.15% 259.97%
Prior -2.38% 1.85% 2.34% 7.72% 16.27%%
On my minimal chart, yesterday, while discussing Fibonacci re-traces and such, I said [i\{ Now comes the test - do we begin a re-trace lower or continue high. Case one keeps me thinking consolidation, at best, and case two tells me I misjudged the whole shebang.
I should remind this is very short-term stuff I look at and this retrace was of the spread of the 11/2-11/3 move. With a longer view there's much more upside left in both reversion to the mean and Fibonacci re-traces. } Well, today we continued higher and on rising volume. But the volume got high enough that I suspect we may have topped - making a not atypical overshoot? If that's the case the upward move should stall out and volume should begin to decline. This doesn't say that I'm right yet, but does say it's time to keep an eye open for the start of a re-trace lower. This is likely an indecision point.
One possible outcome from such a move might be the eventual formation of a bullish (reverse) head and shoulders patter, which would suggest a good upside move if the pattern completes. To make this pattern requires a re-trace down of about two days duration to a level similar to that of the left shoulder and then a rise to and through the neckline, which is level right now.
Another, and more likely I think, outcome is that we have started a down leg within a newly-developing consolidation pattern, which is what I've been expecting. Right now the potential H&S neckline would be the early possible resistance of this consolidation channel. The top of the left shoulder and head (i.e. the low-point) are initially the two potential support points.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continued the converging. It's still got the upper limit falling faster than the lower limit rises, so the mid-point continues dropping.
On my one-year chart the four SMAs continue to decline and all will continue so unless a big rise is seen, which I consider highly unlikely.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had every one improved and RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic out of oversold. MFI (untrusted by me) remained oversold. Everything remained below neutral though. All this, combined with marginally rising volume, suggested some potential strength in the move up.
Well, today got a nice move up on strongly rising volume. The oscillators all improved and all are out of oversold territory but all but Williams %R are still below neutral. Regardless, these improvements with good rising volume would suggest further upside, but for ...
I again have concern with the volume, especially because results were reported this evening. There was no surprise there and the AH trading was almost nothing. So all the volume was in normal trading hours and is high enough I suspect it indicates a top.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.0000 and $0.0000 ($0.0000 and $0.0000 yesterday)
All in, everything is positive in movement but the volume makes me cautious. I suspect a top and the beginning of consolidation (don't I alway suspect this?). But it may take the form of making a bullish H & S (not likely for this symbol?) or, more likely I think, a sideways channel will develop.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction. The short percentage got well above my desired range (needs re-check). This is a negative suggestion. The buy percentage made the third day in a range suggesting sustainable appreciation is possible. I questioned yesterday of this was just a normal (well, it used to be!) run-up into earnings. regardless, it's a positive.
The spread expanded for the second consecutive day and on rising volume both days. It's gotten large enough again that I think it can't sustain and at least a pause should be expected. This is reinforced by the volume today. Having said that, at least it was produced by an intra-day open medium, drop a bit and then rocket up and maintain a decent high range into the close. So maybe it's O.K. We'll see.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings maintained the 15 negatives and 9 positives re-established two days ago. Change since 10/06 is -$0.5230, -36.43%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.7635%, -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, -2.1754%, -1.7898%, -1.8093%, -1.5915%, -1.5472%, and -1.2704%.
We got two days of the average VWAP movement improving - let's hope that holds for a while.
All in, everything but the short percentage and spread looks positive. Those two negate the positives though and leave me in the consolidation or weakening camp.
Bill
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