Wednesday, November 09, 2016 10:32:36 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/08 2016 EOD
Everything but my TFH says more near-term upside is available. I'm not sure I can trust it any more. However, consolidation, but with
a longer time-frame than my normal few days, is still possible, which allows more upside if one thinks a reversion to the mean or Fibonacci re-trace is in progress.
There was a PR for distributor financing.
Today was a start low, rise a bit and go flat for more than an hour, re-trace down almost the whole range through ~10:45, rise to new
high of $0.86 through ~11:37, go flat $0.85/6 (appx. actually fractions of pennies mostly) through ~14:00, collapse range to $0.85xx
/26ish through ~15;38, and then do the big push up to new highs (see below).
There was one pre-market trade.
09:30-10:35 opened the day with a 1,158 sell for $0.82. B/a at 9:32 was 5.1K:969 $0.8170/$84. Then came 9:34's 200 $0.84, 9:35's b/a of 1K:777 $0.82/4, 9:38's 2K $0.84, 9:39's ~600 $0.84, 9:40's 125 $0.8214, 9:42's b/a 1.2K:177 $0.82/4, and there were no trades 9:41-:54. B/a at 9:52 was 5.1K:77 $0.83/$0.8401 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.8499).
Then extremely low/no-volume $0.8400/99 began on 9:55's 100 $0.8499. B/a at 9:59 was 100:400 $0.8301/$0.8490. Volume was interrupted by 10:16's 5K (says something when that's an interruption) $0.8426. B/a at 10:30 was 100:6.7K $0.8440/98, 10:33 9:9:: $0.8409/95 (bid backed by presented 5.6K $0.83). The period ended on 10:35's 100 $0.8491.
10:36-10:42 did a quick step down on 10:36's 900 $0.83->$0.8397->$0.8301->$0.83, 10:37's 100 $0.8491, 10:39's 200 $0.8490, 10:40's 5.4K 5.4K $0.8493->$0.83, 10:41's 6.6K $0.84->$0.83->$0.8345->$0.8295, and ended the period on 10:42's 900 $0.8220->$0.8222->$0.8299->$0.8260.
10:43-11:18 began a very low/no-volume slow crawl higher on 10:43's 2.8K $0.8249->$0.8235->$0.8249. It hit 10:59's $0.8275/99, saw b/a at 11:04 of 800:100 $0.8299/$0.8310, hit 11:09's $0.8311/50, 11:15's $0.8479, and ended the period on 11:18's 800 $0.8349/80.
11:19-11:36 began very low/no-volume $0.847/8 on 11:19's 200 $0.848. The period ended on 11:36's 4K $0.8455/78->$0.8479->$0.8480->$0.8486->$0.8492->$0.8495->$0.85->$0.86.
11:37-13:58 began very low/no-volume $0.8501/$0.86 on 11:37's 1.1K $0.8588->$0.8529. B/a at 11:45 was 500:4.5K $0.8505/$0.86, 11:56 1.5K:2.5K $0.8505/99, 12:05 1.3K1.7K $0.8506/98, 12:18 1.2K:1.2K $0.8500/74, 12:48 800:2.4K $0.8507/99, 13:03 700:2.5K $0.8518/99, 13:17 800:1.7K $0.8518/98, 13:33 1.1K:1.7K $0.8518/98, 13:38 1K:13 $0.8518/30 (ask backed by presented 800 $0.8598), 13:49 900:900 $0.8518:99. The period ended on 13:58's 201 $0.8597.
13:59-15:36 began a very low/no-volume and compressed $0.8518/26 on 13:59's 373 $0.8525. Volume was interrupted by 14:00's 12.1K $0.8518/26. B/a at 14:04 was 500:100 $0.8519/22, 14:19 400:1.2K $0.8519/23 (bots at play on the offer), 14:29 600:700 $0.8520/1, 14:53 600:1K $0.8520/3, 15:03 100:600 $0.8520/1, 15:06 400:600 $0.8519/21, 15:33 600:100 $0.8519/26. The period ended on 15:36's 1.4K $0.8519.
15:37-15:56 began the EOD volatility doing a rising volume climb beginning with 15:37's 300 $0.8520/7. B/a at 15:49 was 600:100 $0.8519/62. Then it hit 15:50's 10.3K $0.8544/$0.86, 15:51's 200 $0.8624/$0.8768, 15:54's b/a 700:300 $0.8656/$0.8768, and the period ended on 15:56's 300 $0.88.
15:57-16:00 did a big higher-volume drop, but for the close, on 15:57's 8.2K $0.8714/28->$0.87, 15:58's b/a 1K:4.5K $0.8700/28, 15:58's 3.7K $0.8700/1, 15:59's ~8.4K $0.8650->$0.8619->$0.8518/21->$0.8500/1->$0.8553->$0.8500, and ended the period and day on 16:00's 11.6K $0.8726 buy.
There were no AH trades.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5a & 2 4K+K) totaling 55,264, 29.36% of day's volume, with a $0.8526 VWAP. Excluding the closing trade, there were 7 larger trades totaling 43,664, 23.19% of day's volume, with a $0.8473 VWAP. The day's VWAP of $0.8500 was below the first group and above the latter group. The count of larger trades and percentage of day's volume were in the normal range for the day's volume.
Of note is that the number of "larger larger trades", for the price movement seen relative to the two prior days, was abnormally small. So whatever produced the rise seen in the last half of the following intra-day breakdown wasn't from "big money" coming in.
Is it possible or likely that we have some folks playing the upcoming results reporting in a bullish manner? Shorters doing covering buys, as I've suggested might be the case with sub-$1 trading. I also looked at the intra-day patterns for the prior few days. That suggested my other common scenario of MMs, having gotten short-term long doing attractively priced covering buys of what they shorted handling sell orders, supported price so they could sell into the rising market. Yesterday's pattern was open high and drop big, which would provide the attractive covering buy points, and today open low and went high, offering profitable sell points.
All that's left to do is get some folks to believe. Looking at the VWAP and volumes it seems some believe?
Last, just so I don't ignore the possibility, there's always the possibility that the market has, for an unknown reason, become constructive on Capstone and thinks a bullish run is beginning.
What's both interesting, and unfathomable by me, is why the last four minutes had ~17% of day's volume with a ~$0.008 VWAP rise and two percent gain in buying percentage. If one is buying, why buy at the highest VWAP of the day when much better prices were available all day long? Possible answer is MMs were accumulating at lower prices, as well as unloading their own shares if any, to satisfy buy orders?
I'll never know.
With no attractive covering prices seen from late morning onward, I wouldn't be surprised to see weakness return tomorrow.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday as I continued believing we were doing consolidation, I said, among other things, { ... and a two-step up on declining volume, suggesting the upside is limited. We've also re-traced ~1/2 have the most recent step down (from 11/2's up day to 11/3's down day - $0.9414 high -> $0.75 low), typical of "reversion to the mean. More upside could be had to a Fibonacci re-trace point, ~82%, and we would still be making a consolidation pattern, especially if volume continues declining. }
But for the volume, which had a small rise, this hit the mark as today we hit the high and closed just about on the Fibonacci re-trace. Now comes the test - do we begin a re-trace lower or continue high. Case one keeps me thinking consolidation, at best, and case two tells me I misjudged the whole shebang.
I should remind this is very short-term stuff I look at and this retrace was of the spread of the 11/2-11/3 move. With a longer view there's much more upside left in both reversion to the mean and Fibonacci re-traces.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continued the convergence began yesterday. It's still got the upper limit falling faster than the lower limit rises, so the mid-point continues dropping.
On my one-year chart, as with the recent posts, has the four SMAs continuing to decline and all will continue so unless a big rise is seen, which I consider highly unlikely.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had every oscillator I watch improved except accumulation/distribution, which continued to weaken. Everything with a demarcation for oversold was still oversold. Everything else is below neutral.
Today every one improved and RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic got out of oversold. MFI (untrusted by me) remains oversold. Everything remains below neutral though. Combined with marginally rising volume, this suggests some potential strength in the move up.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7059 and $1.1430 ($0.7082 and $1.1741 yesterday) continue converging with an upper limit falling more rapidly than the lower limit rises, producing a still-declining mid-point.
All in, ignoring my TFH observations about intra-day behavior, more near-term upside is suggested, thanks to the rising volume.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, generally not good, but today has mitigating factors.
The short percentage moved from above the desired range (needs re-check) to right at the lower end of the range. The buy percentage is at a level that allows for sustainable upside for the second day and that follows on levels for three days before that allowed for near-term upside. Intra-day buy percentages were strong all day long too. So in aggregate I think these suggest more near-term upside.
Countering that is my TFH which does look at the intra-day behavior over these days. It still doesn't believe anything sustainable is there because of what appears to be manipulation to the benefit of shorters and MMs and, maybe, short-term traders.
The spread supporting that would be the spread again expanding, breaking the two-day trend of contraction. However, it was produced much more by the move higher than the move lower, intra-day, and may actually be a positive. we'll have to see what's next.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings maintained the 15 negatives and 9 positives re-established yesterday. Change since 10/05 is-$0.5254, -38.20%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, -2.1754%, -1.7898%, -1.8093%, -1.5915%, -1.5472%, -1.2704%, and -1.2441%.
All in, ignoring my TFH, these suggest more near-term appreciation is possible.
Bill
Everything but my TFH says more near-term upside is available. I'm not sure I can trust it any more. However, consolidation, but with
a longer time-frame than my normal few days, is still possible, which allows more upside if one thinks a reversion to the mean or Fibonacci re-trace is in progress.
There was a PR for distributor financing.
Today was a start low, rise a bit and go flat for more than an hour, re-trace down almost the whole range through ~10:45, rise to new
high of $0.86 through ~11:37, go flat $0.85/6 (appx. actually fractions of pennies mostly) through ~14:00, collapse range to $0.85xx
/26ish through ~15;38, and then do the big push up to new highs (see below).
There was one pre-market trade.
09:30-10:35 opened the day with a 1,158 sell for $0.82. B/a at 9:32 was 5.1K:969 $0.8170/$84. Then came 9:34's 200 $0.84, 9:35's b/a of 1K:777 $0.82/4, 9:38's 2K $0.84, 9:39's ~600 $0.84, 9:40's 125 $0.8214, 9:42's b/a 1.2K:177 $0.82/4, and there were no trades 9:41-:54. B/a at 9:52 was 5.1K:77 $0.83/$0.8401 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.8499).
Then extremely low/no-volume $0.8400/99 began on 9:55's 100 $0.8499. B/a at 9:59 was 100:400 $0.8301/$0.8490. Volume was interrupted by 10:16's 5K (says something when that's an interruption) $0.8426. B/a at 10:30 was 100:6.7K $0.8440/98, 10:33 9:9:: $0.8409/95 (bid backed by presented 5.6K $0.83). The period ended on 10:35's 100 $0.8491.
10:36-10:42 did a quick step down on 10:36's 900 $0.83->$0.8397->$0.8301->$0.83, 10:37's 100 $0.8491, 10:39's 200 $0.8490, 10:40's 5.4K 5.4K $0.8493->$0.83, 10:41's 6.6K $0.84->$0.83->$0.8345->$0.8295, and ended the period on 10:42's 900 $0.8220->$0.8222->$0.8299->$0.8260.
10:43-11:18 began a very low/no-volume slow crawl higher on 10:43's 2.8K $0.8249->$0.8235->$0.8249. It hit 10:59's $0.8275/99, saw b/a at 11:04 of 800:100 $0.8299/$0.8310, hit 11:09's $0.8311/50, 11:15's $0.8479, and ended the period on 11:18's 800 $0.8349/80.
11:19-11:36 began very low/no-volume $0.847/8 on 11:19's 200 $0.848. The period ended on 11:36's 4K $0.8455/78->$0.8479->$0.8480->$0.8486->$0.8492->$0.8495->$0.85->$0.86.
11:37-13:58 began very low/no-volume $0.8501/$0.86 on 11:37's 1.1K $0.8588->$0.8529. B/a at 11:45 was 500:4.5K $0.8505/$0.86, 11:56 1.5K:2.5K $0.8505/99, 12:05 1.3K1.7K $0.8506/98, 12:18 1.2K:1.2K $0.8500/74, 12:48 800:2.4K $0.8507/99, 13:03 700:2.5K $0.8518/99, 13:17 800:1.7K $0.8518/98, 13:33 1.1K:1.7K $0.8518/98, 13:38 1K:13 $0.8518/30 (ask backed by presented 800 $0.8598), 13:49 900:900 $0.8518:99. The period ended on 13:58's 201 $0.8597.
13:59-15:36 began a very low/no-volume and compressed $0.8518/26 on 13:59's 373 $0.8525. Volume was interrupted by 14:00's 12.1K $0.8518/26. B/a at 14:04 was 500:100 $0.8519/22, 14:19 400:1.2K $0.8519/23 (bots at play on the offer), 14:29 600:700 $0.8520/1, 14:53 600:1K $0.8520/3, 15:03 100:600 $0.8520/1, 15:06 400:600 $0.8519/21, 15:33 600:100 $0.8519/26. The period ended on 15:36's 1.4K $0.8519.
15:37-15:56 began the EOD volatility doing a rising volume climb beginning with 15:37's 300 $0.8520/7. B/a at 15:49 was 600:100 $0.8519/62. Then it hit 15:50's 10.3K $0.8544/$0.86, 15:51's 200 $0.8624/$0.8768, 15:54's b/a 700:300 $0.8656/$0.8768, and the period ended on 15:56's 300 $0.88.
15:57-16:00 did a big higher-volume drop, but for the close, on 15:57's 8.2K $0.8714/28->$0.87, 15:58's b/a 1K:4.5K $0.8700/28, 15:58's 3.7K $0.8700/1, 15:59's ~8.4K $0.8650->$0.8619->$0.8518/21->$0.8500/1->$0.8553->$0.8500, and ended the period and day on 16:00's 11.6K $0.8726 buy.
There were no AH trades.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5a & 2 4K+K) totaling 55,264, 29.36% of day's volume, with a $0.8526 VWAP. Excluding the closing trade, there were 7 larger trades totaling 43,664, 23.19% of day's volume, with a $0.8473 VWAP. The day's VWAP of $0.8500 was below the first group and above the latter group. The count of larger trades and percentage of day's volume were in the normal range for the day's volume.
Of note is that the number of "larger larger trades", for the price movement seen relative to the two prior days, was abnormally small. So whatever produced the rise seen in the last half of the following intra-day breakdown wasn't from "big money" coming in.
Is it possible or likely that we have some folks playing the upcoming results reporting in a bullish manner? Shorters doing covering buys, as I've suggested might be the case with sub-$1 trading. I also looked at the intra-day patterns for the prior few days. That suggested my other common scenario of MMs, having gotten short-term long doing attractively priced covering buys of what they shorted handling sell orders, supported price so they could sell into the rising market. Yesterday's pattern was open high and drop big, which would provide the attractive covering buy points, and today open low and went high, offering profitable sell points.
All that's left to do is get some folks to believe. Looking at the VWAP and volumes it seems some believe?
Last, just so I don't ignore the possibility, there's always the possibility that the market has, for an unknown reason, become constructive on Capstone and thinks a bullish run is beginning.
Note the typical early VWAP weakness through 11:18 and how big a jump in both VWAP and buy percentage was produced by the next 5% of day's volume in 18 minutes. From there it was never look back (because they might be gaining on you!). This was on ~79% of day's volume.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
08:32 1000 $0.8500 $0.8500 $850.00 $0.8500 0.53% 100.00%
10:35 13745 $0.8200 $0.8499 $11,561.17 $0.8411 7.30% 51.32% Incl 10:16 $0.8426 5,000
10:42 24697 $0.8220 $0.8493 $20,608.76 $0.8345 13.12% 35.83% Incl 10:36 $0.8300 7,065 10:40 $0.8493 4,999
10:41 $0.8300 4,900
11:18 19800 $0.8223 $0.8480 $16,426.16 $0.8296 10.52% 51.25%
11:36 10425 $0.8423 $0.8600 $8,828.34 $0.8468 5.54% 58.19%
13:58 43549 $0.8501 $0.8600 $37,224.50 $0.8548 23.13% 53.25% Incl 11:45 $0.8503 7,400
15:36 24310 $0.8518 $0.8526 $20,720.36 $0.8523 12.91% 49.66% Incl 14:00 $0.8525 8,300
15:56 16908 $0.8519 $0.8800 $14,508.25 $0.8581 8.98% 53.37%
16:00 31884 $0.8500 $0.8728 $27,637.31 $0.8668 16.94% 55.38% Incl 15:57 $0.8728 6,000 16:00 $0.8726 11,600
What's both interesting, and unfathomable by me, is why the last four minutes had ~17% of day's volume with a ~$0.008 VWAP rise and two percent gain in buying percentage. If one is buying, why buy at the highest VWAP of the day when much better prices were available all day long? Possible answer is MMs were accumulating at lower prices, as well as unloading their own shares if any, to satisfy buy orders?
I'll never know.
With no attractive covering prices seen from late morning onward, I wouldn't be surprised to see weakness return tomorrow.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
These movements look pretty good. The rising volume would suggest building strength.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.38% 1.85% 2.34% 7.72% 16.27%
Prior 5.00% 5.93% 2.61% 1.26% -69.30%
On my minimal chart, yesterday as I continued believing we were doing consolidation, I said, among other things, { ... and a two-step up on declining volume, suggesting the upside is limited. We've also re-traced ~1/2 have the most recent step down (from 11/2's up day to 11/3's down day - $0.9414 high -> $0.75 low), typical of "reversion to the mean. More upside could be had to a Fibonacci re-trace point, ~82%, and we would still be making a consolidation pattern, especially if volume continues declining. }
But for the volume, which had a small rise, this hit the mark as today we hit the high and closed just about on the Fibonacci re-trace. Now comes the test - do we begin a re-trace lower or continue high. Case one keeps me thinking consolidation, at best, and case two tells me I misjudged the whole shebang.
I should remind this is very short-term stuff I look at and this retrace was of the spread of the 11/2-11/3 move. With a longer view there's much more upside left in both reversion to the mean and Fibonacci re-traces. The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continued the convergence began yesterday. It's still got the upper limit falling faster than the lower limit rises, so the mid-point continues dropping.
On my one-year chart, as with the recent posts, has the four SMAs continuing to decline and all will continue so unless a big rise is seen, which I consider highly unlikely.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had every oscillator I watch improved except accumulation/distribution, which continued to weaken. Everything with a demarcation for oversold was still oversold. Everything else is below neutral.
Today every one improved and RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic got out of oversold. MFI (untrusted by me) remains oversold. Everything remains below neutral though. Combined with marginally rising volume, this suggests some potential strength in the move up.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7059 and $1.1430 ($0.7082 and $1.1741 yesterday) continue converging with an upper limit falling more rapidly than the lower limit rises, producing a still-declining mid-point.
All in, ignoring my TFH observations about intra-day behavior, more near-term upside is suggested, thanks to the rising volume.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, generally not good, but today has mitigating factors.
The short percentage moved from above the desired range (needs re-check) to right at the lower end of the range. The buy percentage is at a level that allows for sustainable upside for the second day and that follows on levels for three days before that allowed for near-term upside. Intra-day buy percentages were strong all day long too. So in aggregate I think these suggest more near-term upside.
Countering that is my TFH which does look at the intra-day behavior over these days. It still doesn't believe anything sustainable is there because of what appears to be manipulation to the benefit of shorters and MMs and, maybe, short-term traders.
The spread supporting that would be the spread again expanding, breaking the two-day trend of contraction. However, it was produced much more by the move higher than the move lower, intra-day, and may actually be a positive. we'll have to see what's next.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings maintained the 15 negatives and 9 positives re-established yesterday. Change since 10/05 is-$0.5254, -38.20%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, -2.1754%, -1.7898%, -1.8093%, -1.5915%, -1.5472%, -1.2704%, and -1.2441%.
All in, ignoring my TFH, these suggest more near-term appreciation is possible.
Bill
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