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Sunday, October 23, 2016 9:40:31 AM
Peek Into Future Through Futures
* October 22, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016.
E-mini S&P 500: The 2120 support was tested again this week and held. But equity bulls were unable to fully take advantage of the daily oversold conditions.
Flows continue to be a problem. In the week ended Wednesday, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost $206 million. In the prior week, outflows were $1.8 billion (courtesy of ETF.com).
In the same week, another $3.4 billion came out of U.S.-based equity funds (courtesy of Lipper). The S&P 500 peaked at 2193.81 on August 15; since the week ended August 17, north of $40 billion has left these funds.
Currently net long 23k, up 56.9k.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) jumped to fresh highs. They respectively report next Thursday and the followiing Wednesday. A lot has been built in. Post-earnings, Microsoft (MSFT), too, surged to a new high. Intel (INTC), whose outlook disappointed, was treated differently; the stock collapsed 5.9 percent on Wednesday, followed by another one-percent drop in the next two which both produced long-legged dojis.
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 index reached a new record high of 4904.72 before coming under pressure; that said, 4740 support was defended. Several big honchos are yet to report – which will decide the Nasdaq 100’s near-term path. It has charted out a broadening formation, and is currently kissing the top end.
In the week through Wednesday, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, managed to attract $177 million, coming on the heels of outflows of $926 million in the prior two (courtesy of ETF.com).
Non-commercials have built the most net longs.
Currently net long 157.1k, up 27.8k.
Russell 2000 mini-index: IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, attracted $1.4 billion in the week ended Wednesday – the largest weekly inflows since the week ended August 10 – and followed outflows of $718 million in the prior two (courtesy of ETF.com).
Support at 1200-plus was tested again this week, and it held. The 50-day moving average – flattish to slightly down – lies at 1236.57, which is 1.5 percent away.
Currently net long 8.1k, down 4.8k.
US Dollar Index: Non-commercials raised net longs to a 10-month high. Momentum is intact on the cash, with shorter-term averages still rising, and should continue to provide support near-term, even though daily momentum indicators are way overbought.
In a larger scheme of things, the spot continues to trade within $100-plus and $93-plus, with nice price action of late and a ‘higher lows, higher highs’ pattern.
Currently net long 45.4k, up 11.9k.
VIX: Spot VIX lost 17.3 percent for the week even as the S&P 500 was only up 0.4 percent.
Between an intra-day high of 17.95 on October 13 and a low of 13.27 this Friday, VIX lost 4.68 points, with the S&P 500 rallying 1.6 percent from low to high during the period. Equity bulls probably failed to cash in on volatility compression.
In the last three sessions, the equity put-to-call ratio was in the .50s.
The VIX-to-VXV ratio similarly dropped from 0.97 using intra-day highs on October 13 to 0.83 on Friday. A drop into the low-0.80s/high-0.70s pushes the ratio into oversold territory.
Despite the drop in VIX this week, it has been making higher lows since August 9; that trend line will not be tested until 12.50.
Currently net short 74.6k, down 13.4k.
Hedgopia Risk Reward Index
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-66/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
* October 22, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016.
E-mini S&P 500: The 2120 support was tested again this week and held. But equity bulls were unable to fully take advantage of the daily oversold conditions.
Flows continue to be a problem. In the week ended Wednesday, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost $206 million. In the prior week, outflows were $1.8 billion (courtesy of ETF.com).
In the same week, another $3.4 billion came out of U.S.-based equity funds (courtesy of Lipper). The S&P 500 peaked at 2193.81 on August 15; since the week ended August 17, north of $40 billion has left these funds.
Currently net long 23k, up 56.9k.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) jumped to fresh highs. They respectively report next Thursday and the followiing Wednesday. A lot has been built in. Post-earnings, Microsoft (MSFT), too, surged to a new high. Intel (INTC), whose outlook disappointed, was treated differently; the stock collapsed 5.9 percent on Wednesday, followed by another one-percent drop in the next two which both produced long-legged dojis.
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 index reached a new record high of 4904.72 before coming under pressure; that said, 4740 support was defended. Several big honchos are yet to report – which will decide the Nasdaq 100’s near-term path. It has charted out a broadening formation, and is currently kissing the top end.
In the week through Wednesday, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, managed to attract $177 million, coming on the heels of outflows of $926 million in the prior two (courtesy of ETF.com).
Non-commercials have built the most net longs.
Currently net long 157.1k, up 27.8k.
Russell 2000 mini-index: IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, attracted $1.4 billion in the week ended Wednesday – the largest weekly inflows since the week ended August 10 – and followed outflows of $718 million in the prior two (courtesy of ETF.com).
Support at 1200-plus was tested again this week, and it held. The 50-day moving average – flattish to slightly down – lies at 1236.57, which is 1.5 percent away.
Currently net long 8.1k, down 4.8k.
US Dollar Index: Non-commercials raised net longs to a 10-month high. Momentum is intact on the cash, with shorter-term averages still rising, and should continue to provide support near-term, even though daily momentum indicators are way overbought.
In a larger scheme of things, the spot continues to trade within $100-plus and $93-plus, with nice price action of late and a ‘higher lows, higher highs’ pattern.
Currently net long 45.4k, up 11.9k.
VIX: Spot VIX lost 17.3 percent for the week even as the S&P 500 was only up 0.4 percent.
Between an intra-day high of 17.95 on October 13 and a low of 13.27 this Friday, VIX lost 4.68 points, with the S&P 500 rallying 1.6 percent from low to high during the period. Equity bulls probably failed to cash in on volatility compression.
In the last three sessions, the equity put-to-call ratio was in the .50s.
The VIX-to-VXV ratio similarly dropped from 0.97 using intra-day highs on October 13 to 0.83 on Friday. A drop into the low-0.80s/high-0.70s pushes the ratio into oversold territory.
Despite the drop in VIX this week, it has been making higher lows since August 9; that trend line will not be tested until 12.50.
Currently net short 74.6k, down 13.4k.
Hedgopia Risk Reward Index
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-66/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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