Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

It appears we're about to tack on still more gains today as ALDW is up now, after two hours and ten minutes of trading---33 cents. That is sooooo sweet, don'tcha think? Units were actually several pennies higher, earlier on but I missed that as I was exercising.

The price is all over the place, no way to predict what the day will bring. But I'm confident the rising tide will continue unless there's no major political news breaking. ISIS is in the headlines as U.S. forces move to within four miles of Mosul with that major Iraqi city foremost on the minds of those tending to such fires. I'm seeing nothing else to suggest an unusual vulnerability to the MLPs we track here.

At this moment units are fetching $9 and it's been as high as $9.04 today. I remain underwater to the tune of $#4,500 or so. On Monday we closed at $8.21 so we're up nearly 10% since Monday's close of trading. That's an $11,000 recovery for me. I can eat!

Next week I predict we will make it past $9.35 but that's only an opinion based on my instinctual math receptors. That would represent a weekly gain of just 3.8% if we were to start the week at $9. So just on the basis of averages, I'd say it's more than a reasonable expectation that we'll quite likely exceed today's mean.

Issues of probability are extremely captivating, especially when we have a lot of money at stake.