Thursday, October 20, 2016 1:18:19 PM
Being still in my "three-day catalyst effect window", I have no trust that anything here forecasts anything in which we can have confidence.
A volatile day as we opened "high" and immediately plummeted to $1 by 9:40, recovered a small amount to do sideways $1.01/2 through 11:31 and then did a high-volume big up and big down, hitting $1.19 by 11:50 and $1.05 by 12:12. A little up and down sideways followed until we move up to $1.10/1 by 12:36 and went sideways $1.09/10 through 14:41, stepped up to do $1.10/1 through 15:21, and then did a whoop-de-doo down to $1.05 by 15:30 and then back up to $1.11/2 by 15:56. We closed the day, with no closing trade, on 15:59's last $1.11 trade.
Unfortunately, I was AFK (Away From Keyboard) when the peak neared and did not sell my $1.1163 cost trading block. I think I've got another day to eke out a small gain though.
At 8:36 b/a was 3.2K:1.5K $1.07/12, 8:50 1.5K:1.5K $1.10/2, 9:10 2.5K:1.5K $1.10/2, 9:20 2.5K:500 1.10/2, 9:23 10K:500 $1.11/2. Sitting behind the $1.12 offer was $1.15 x 3K. This led to 9:25's b/a 2K:3K $1.12/5 and 9:29's 10K:3K $1.11/5.
There were seven pre-market trades totaling 10K, all at $1.12.
09:30-09:40 opened the day with a 47,686 unknown for $1.10 & 22,126 more for $1.11-$1.12. A high-volume plunge immediately began. At 9:31 b/a was 1.2K:3.4K $1.11/12, 9:35 23.3K:3.7K $1.09/10, 9:36 800:3.1K $1.09/10, 9:37 13.9K:4K $1.09/10, 9:40 5.4K:9.2K $1.02/3. The period ended bottoming on 9:40's 104K $1.05->$1.04->$1.03->$1.02xx->$1.03->$1.01/2->$1.02/3->$1.01/2->$1.04->$1.00/1->$1.0099->$1.0001->$1.02.
09:41-10:21 had b/a at 9:41 of 2.1K:900 $1.01/3. Price attempted and failed to do a halting recovery on 9:41's 9.7K $1.01/2, went sideways $1.01/4 through 9:49, seeing b/a at 9:43 of 9.6K:1.8K $1.01/3 and 9:44 1.4K:600 $1.03/4, did $1.02/3 through 10:00 seeing b/a at 9:52 of 5.5K:4.5K $1.02/3, 9:58 10.1K:8.7K $1.02/3 and 10:00 29.4K:10.3K $1.02/3. 10:01 started another push up to 10:04's $1.03/5 with 10:01's b/a of 35.9K:6.9K $1.02/3 and 10:04's 8.8K:6.4K $1.03/5. 10:07 began a fall back to the period's starting range with b/a at 10:11 of 34.7K:5.4K $1.02/3 and 10:20 12.6K:16.6K $1.02/3. The period ended on 10:21's 86.3K $1.03->$1.01.
10:22-11:31 began a sideways $1.01/2 with 10:22's 29.4K $1.01->$1.02->$1.00, leaving b/a at 10:22 of 6.1K:28.9K $1.01/2. B/a at 10:24 was 22.1K:7.4K $1.01/2, 10:33 33.7K:6.6K $1.01/2, 10:41 21.4K:17.9K $1.01/2, 10:51 38.9K:17.4K $1.01/2, 11:03 37.9K:11.5K $1.01/2, 11:20 46K:23.8K $1.01/2, 11:26 60.5K:25.4K $1.01/2. The period ended on 11:31's 6.6K $1.01/2.
11:32-11:50 began a rising-volume rapid climb higher on 11:32's ~37.3K $1.01/2. B/a at 11:34 was 11K:1K $1.02/3 and hit 11:34's 11.9K $1.03->$1.02->$1.03->$1.05. B/a at 11:35 was 1.5K:800 $1.03/4 and hit 11:41's 7.2K $1.05->$1.04->$1.06, 11:43's 29.1K $1.07->$1.06->$1.10->$1.09, 11:45's 27.4K $1.12->$1.14->$1.13, 11:47's 52.8K $1.13->$1.16->$1.12, and ended the period hitting 11:50's 16.3K $1.17->$1.16->$1.19.
11:51-12:13 began a high->medium-volume fall about as rapid as the preceding rise on 11:51's ~43.1K $1.18->$1.19->$1.15. Price hit 12:02's 2.2K $1.09/10, 12:05's b/a of 2.2K:18.9K $1.09/10, 12:06's 2.9K $1.09->$1.07->$1.10->$1.08, 12:10's b/a of 32.1K:5.1K $1.07/8, 12:13 b/a 13.2K:1.7K $1.05/6, and ended the period on 12:13's 300 $1.05.
12:14-12:34 began a mostly low-volume short spike up, then down, then sideways on 12:14's 11.1K $1.06->$1.09->$1.05->$1.07. Price hit 12:16's 35.5K $1.08->$1.10->$1.07, did a few minutes $1.07/8, saw b/a at 12:22 of 800:2.4K $1.07/8, hit 12:29's 9.1K $1.07->$1.08->$1.06 and 12:30's 2.6K:3.3K $1.06/7. The period ended on 12:34's 900 $1.06/7.
12:35-14:41 began a mostly very low/no-volume $1.09/10 on 12:35's 3.4K $1.06/7. B/a at 12:37 was 1.9K:1.1K $1.10/1, 12:40 16.8K:2.8K $1.09/10, 13:04 12.1K:13.4K $1.09/10, 13:09 11.5K:17.1K $1.09/10, 13:14 12.4K:16.5K $1.09/10, 13:38 16.2K:17.8K $1.09/10, 14:09 26K:15K $1.09/10, 14:29 37.6K:11.9K $1.09/10. The period ended on 14:41's 2.8K $1.09/10. Bid pecking was heavy $1.09 12:37-13:12 and less heavy to the period end.
14:42-15:21 began medium-volume $1.10/1 on 1:42's 36.4K $1.10->$1.09->$1.11. 14:58 b/a 3K:7.4K $1.10/1, 15:13 4.4K:12.4K $1.10/1. The period ended on 15:21's 600 $1.10/1.
15:22-15:30 began a rapid medium/higher-volume drop on 15:22's 18K $1.10->$1.11->$1.08. Then came 15:23's ~13K $1.07/8, 15:25's b/a of 1.2K:12.4K $1.07/8, 15:25's 5.4K $1.08->$1.06, 15:29's b/a of 1.3K:9.4K $1.06/7, and the period ended hitting 15:30's 7.7K $1.07->$1.05->$1.06.
15:31-15:41 began a medium-volume $1.05/6 on 15:31's 500 $1.06. B/a at 15:38 was 12.4K:13K $1.05/6. The period ended on 15:41's 13.3K $1.05->$1.06->$1.05.
15:42-16:00 began a rapid rising-volume climb into the close on 15:42's 10.3K $1.05->$1.08->$1.06. Then 15:44's b/a was 3.4K:1.8K $1.06/7, 15:48's 1.9K hit $1.07/8, 15:51's 17K hit $1.09/8/10, 15:54's b/a was 4.3K:3.3K $1.10/1, 15:54's 2K hit $1.10/1, 15:56's 12.8K hit $1.11->$1.10->$1.12->$1.11, and the period and day ended on 15:59's ~32.8K $1.11/2 with the last trade of the day $1.11 because there was no closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 79 larger trades (>=5K & 25 4K+) totaling 601,351, 24.35% of day's volume, with a $1.0711 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 78 larger trades totaling 553,665, 22.42% of day's volume, with a $1.0687 VWAP. For the day's trade volume these counts and percentages seem fairly normal. The VWAPs for both groups were very close to the day's $1.0673.
Note the buy percentage was weak all day even as VWAP for the periods finally showed some improvements. Note where the larger trades dominated.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:27 10000 $1.1200 $1.1200 $11,200.00 $1.1200 0.40% 100.00%
09:40 341008 $1.0000 $1.1200 $363,842.03 $1.0670 13.81% 24.09% Incl 09:30 $1.1000 47,686 $1.1144 4,000
09:30 $1.1148 5,000 09:38 $1.0900 4,400
09:38 $1.0900 4,400 4,500 14,300
09:39 $1.0700 7,991 $1.0500 6,600
09:40 $1.0300 8,500 10,000
10:21 398987 $1.0100 $1.0500 $408,013.32 $1.0226 16.16% 30.82% Incl 09:45 $1.0300 5,000 09:46 $1.0100 9,300
09:48 $1.0400 7,340 09:50 $1.0200 6,245
09:56 $1.0260 5,000 10:00 $1.0241 4,115
10:00 $1.0250 4,200 4,200 $1.0287 4,200
10:08 $1.0399 5,000 10:10 $1.0300 5,012
10:12 $1.0299 10,000 10:21 $1.0200 4,319
10:21 $1.0200 5,416 8,918 $1.0100 4,100
10:21 $1.0101 4,100 $1.0199 10,000
10:21 $1.0100 4,100
11:31 381894 $1.0001 $1.0300 $387,293.19 $1.0141 15.46% 30.78% Incl 10:22 $1.0100 5,000 10:24 $1.0100 24,261
10:36 $1.0160 5,000 10:40 $1.0100 5,300
10:44 $1.0132 4,650 $1.0199 10,000
10:48 $1.0100 4,000 10:50 $1.0100 4,400
10:50 $1.0101 4,400 10:52 $1.0100 4,070
11:11 $1.0100 5,360 11:23 $1.0199 8,900
11:50 268418 $1.0101 $1.1900 $295,175.35 $1.0997 10.87% 33.64% Incl 11:43 $1.0900 5,000 10,000
11:45 $1.1200 5,000 $1.1399 5,000
11:46 $1.1400 8,900 11:47 $1.1300 14,877
12:13 203635 $1.0500 $1.1899 $227,901.20 $1.1192 8.25% 34.36% Incl 11:51 $1.1733 4,000 $1.1700 4,756
11:52 $1.1550 9,500 11:53 $1.1500 5,000
12:00 $1.1100 18,546 12:09 $1.0812 5,000
12:34 105541 $1.0501 $1.1000 $113,267.67 $1.0732 4.27% 33.60% Incl 12:16 $1.0800 23,098 12:20 $1.0760 5,000
12:25 $1.0700 15,000
14:41 307171 $1.0600 $1.1100 $335,517.96 $1.0923 12.44% 32.15% Incl 12:45 $1.0950 5,000 12:48 $1.0940 6,825
13:01 $1.0900 4,400 13:24 $1.0961 5,000
13:53 $1.0900 7,000 14:01 $1.1000 6,000
14:37 $1.1000 25,570
15:21 186680 $1.0901 $1.1100 $205,452.18 $1.1006 7.56% 30.62% Incl 14:48 $1.1001 4,654 14:50 $1.1001 9,592
14:58 $1.1000 4,400 15:05 $1.1000 8,900
15:12 $1.1000 5,600 15:13 $1.1000 7,600
15:30 60818 $1.0500 $1.1050 $65,432.22 $1.0759 2.46% 30.34%
15:41 57800 $1.0500 $1.0600 $60,957.61 $1.0546 2.34% 30.34% Incl 15:35 $1.0556 5,000 15:37 $1.0596 6,250
15:41 $1.0550 9,000
15:59 135510 $1.0500 $1.1200 $148,763.07 $1.0978 5.49% 32.11% Incl 15:45 $1.0684 4,300 15:55 $1.1100 5,000
15:59 $1.1200 4,300 5,700
15:59 $1.1118 5,000 $1.1199 4,300
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Note the close, about the only good reading there, which was produced on volume rising from yesterday and rising strongly into the close. This suggests some strength in the move up. However, I normally allow a three-day window for short-term catalyst effects to dissipate so I don't expect this reading should carry much weight right now.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ _Volume_
Today -14.06% -8.26% -7.75% 0.91% 19.27%
Prior -5.19% -17.42% -6.52% -17.29% 1457.44%
On my minimal chart the notable thing is higher volume on a close above yesterday's. Conventional TA says this indicates strength in the move. I however doubt everything within my "three-day catalyst window" and, when combined with I thought we had an "overshoot", give it even less credence. Having said that, I do believe we overshot, considering the $1.20 new shares price and $1.34 A warrant prices, and think the market will migrate to around those levels over time. If I'm right about that we should see some strength, off and on, after we get out of the three-day window.
On my one-year chart, still nothing worth comment.
The oscillators I watch yesterday all weakened, had all below neutral and everything with a demarcation for oversold was in oversold. Today it's gone mixed with improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. Weakening continued in MFI (untrusted by me) and ADX-related. Everything is still below neutral and oversold but that Williams %R got slightly above that line.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1212 and $1.5134 ($1.1821 and $1.5025 yesterday) continue diverging.
All in, if I ignore my "three-day window", the switch from all negative to mixed, with a couple of the more important oscillators becoming less negative, suggests that there's little likelihood of more major movement lower. My best guess would be a short period of consolidation and then the start of some movement up to the $1.20ish or $1.34ish level of an extended period. This might be blocked or enhanced by the upcoming results reporting though. With the new issue and pre-reporting of bad results now out it might be "baked in" already and any more positive (non-financial I presume) might give a little boost.
However, we know the market lost trust in this stock long ago and I do not believe any major recovery of that trust will come quickly. So even some positive out of the reporting is likely to have minimal, and only short-term, effect.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys reverted again to moving in opposite directions. The short percentage is just in side the top of the desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage continues dropping further below what's needed for sustained appreciation.
The spread narrowed marginally but is still too wide. If not for the three-day window I use for catalyst effects I would say this says more short-term weakness. Being within the window though precludes making any assessment with any confidence. Ignoring the window, we can note that the spread was produced by big moves down and big moves up intra-day. with that in mind we still couldn't make any guess with any confidence.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the third day at 15 negative and 9 positive moves (small comfort, that). Change since 09/15 is -$0.3430, -24.32%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0866%, -0.6859%, -0.2351%, -0.6179%, -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, -1.5840%, and -1.6661%.
All in, I'm still not ready to use this stuff to make any call. If I was, the percentage behavior, spread, and almost 10% drop in VWAP would leave me only one option.
Bill
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