Wednesday, October 19, 2016 8:10:50 AM
All in, in extremely abnormal scenarios I wouldn't trust any of this farther than I can throw DJ.
N.B. Figuring a small overshoot occurred, I added a small trading block for $1.1163, friction included. Just looking to unload it at a small profit if we do get a small bounce. The volume was big enough to be considered a "flush" and there should be some re-trace up for a day or two?
There was an Announcement of Pricing of $7.5 Million Offering of Common Stock and Warrants.
Today behaved as one might expect when even more dilution at discounted prices are announced - down. Not much else worth saying.
There were 110 pre-market trades totaling 47,292 with a price range of $1.18-$1.31 with a trade value of $59,005.40 and VWAP of ~$1.2562.
Just before the open b/a was 4K:4.6K $1.31/8.
09:30-09:41 opened the day with a 40,994 unknown trade for $1.28 and 58.6K more for $1.26-$1.28 with a VWAP of $1.2707. Trading down, on high volume, began and bottomed on 9:41's 6.6K $1.23->$1.22->$1.21->$1.2107.
9:42-10:18 began a move up on 9:42's ~23.6K The move up was interrupted by 9:55's ~31.2K $1.21->$1.20/1->$1.23->$1.24. The period ended on 10:18's ~20.7K $1.25->$1.27->$1.25 (9.2K)->$1.26->$1.27.
10:19-10:57, after one no-trades minute, began a low/no-volume $1.24/5 on 10:20's 21.8K $1.26->$1.25/$1.2550->$1.25->$1.24 (16.4K)->$1.25. The period ended on 10:57's ~15.6K $1.24/5.
10:58-11:32 began an extended slow sag lower on 10:58's 21.2K $1.24->$1.23/4, hit 11:06-:07's 108.7K $1.23->$1.22->$1.21, and ended the period when it hit 11:32's~23.7K $1.21->$1.20.
11:33-13:21 began a very low/no-volume $1.20/1, with a lot of 100-share bid pecking, on 11:33's 5.7K $1.20/1. B/a at 12:48 was 36.9K:11.5K $1.20/1, 13:21 25.4K:10.3K $1.20/1. The period ended on 13:21's 1.7K $1.20.
13:22-14:22 Began low/medium-volume $1.19/20 on 13:22's ~62.8K $1.21->$1.19. B/a at 13:24 was 350:5.9K $1.19/$1.20, 13:44 19.6K:8.8K $1.19/20, 14:03 19.2K:13.3K $1.19/20, 14:22 16.1K:13.9K $1.19/20. The period ended on 14:22's ~2.6K $1.19/20.
14:23-14:38 began dropping further on 14:23's 27.3K $1.19/$1.1950->$1.19->$1.1850->$1.18. B/a at 14:30 was 7.9K:2.4K $1.18/9. Price hit 14:34's 42.4K $1.17/8, and the period ended on 14:38's 7.9K $1.16/7.
14:39-14:56 began low-volume $1.16/7 on 14:39's 200 $1.16. B/a at 14:44 was 1.7K:5.7K $1.16/7. The period ended on 14:56's 2.6K $1.16.
14:57-15:24 began another drop lower, this time large, on 14:57's 64.4K $1.16/$1.1650->$1.15->$1.14->$1.13->$1.12->$1.11->$1.1350->$1.12->$1.16->$1.15->$1.12->$1.11->$1.1450->$1.13->$1.14->$1.1450->$1.13->$1.12->$1.11->$1.13. At 15:01 price pushed up, on volume, to do $1.13/4 through 15:12. The fall began again and ended the period when it hit 15:24's 65.4K $1.10->$1.09->$1.10.
15:25-15:34 began with b/a of 2.7K:3.5K $1.09/10 and tried to start a push up on 15:25's ~8.8K $1.0950/80->$1.10. 15:28's ~1.1K did $1.10->$1.1050->$1.1090->$1.11/12->$1.11 and b/a became 6.8K:2.6K $1.11/$1.13. 15:30's ~1.6K topped the move up doing $1.11->$1.13. 15:32 began a move back down, ending the period bottoming on 15:34's ~12.7K $1.11->$1.1050->$1.10.
15:35-15:52 began a low/medium-volume $1.10/11 on 15:35's 17.5K $1.10/1. B/a at 15:36 was 8K:900 $1.10/1, 15:50 14.3K:1.9K $1.10/1. The period ended on 15:52's 2.5K $1.10/$1.1082.
15:53-16:00 began high-volume EOD volatility $1.09/12 on 15:53's ~39K $1.09/$1.1050. B/a at 15:57 was 3.2K:3.1K $1.09/10, 15:58 1.4K:2.5K $1.10/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's ~54.4K $1.10/1->$1.12->$1.10/1->$1.12->$1.19 and 16:00's 500 $1.11.
B/a was 9.1K:7.8K $1.27/30
There were two AH trades, 500 shares for $1.11 and 50 shares for $1.12.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 89 larger trades (>=5K & 16 4K+) totaling 719,426, 34.75% of day's volume, with a $1.1989 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 88 larger trades totaling 678,432, 32.77% of day's volume, with a $1.1940 VWAP. Considering the dilution implied by the financing announcement, these larger counts and percentage of day's volume are not surprising, unexpected nor concerning.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:29 46970 $1.1800 $1.3100 $59,005.40 $1.2562 2.27% 70.09% Incl 09:28 $1.2500 4,400 09:29 $1.2500 8,000
09:41 216380 $1.2100 $1.2900 $273,248.81 $1.2628 10.45% 27.55% Incl 09:30 $1.2800 40,994 $1.2700 9,000
09:30 $1.2700 9,500 15,000 6,000
09:31 $1.2700 5,000 $1.2600 5,000
09:32 $1.2600 10,000 09:34 $1.2500 4,725
09:34 $1.2505 7,300 09:36 $1.2513 4,000
09:37 $1.2585 5,000
10:18 231911 $1.2000 $1.2700 $285,187.54 $1.2297 11.20% 36.17% Incl 09:42 $1.2200 7,500 10,000
09:45 $1.2210 10,000 09:52 $1.2300 4,000
09:53 $1.2200 5,000 09:55 $1.2400 7,000
09:57 $1.2400 12,400 09:58 $1.2400 9,900
10:00 $1.2200 17,000 5,320
10:04 $1.2310 6,342 10:14 $1.2300 6,840
10:14 $1.2300 9,160 10:18 $1.2500 9,199
10:57 105029 $1.2400 $1.2600 $130,656.41 $1.2440 5.07% 36.03% Incl 10:20 $1.2400 14,200 10:54 $1.2401 15,000
10:57 $1.2410 10,000
11:32 200268 $1.2000 $1.2410 $244,500.55 $1.2209 9.67% 32.24% Incl 10:58 $1.2400 4,500 11:06 $1.2300 6,300
11:06 $1.2301 6,300 11:07 $1.2200 8,000
11:07 $1.2200 17,069 23,800 5,000
11:07 $1.2237 5,000 11:32 $1.2100 10,000
13:21 260074 $1.2000 $1.2100 $313,260.70 $1.2045 12.56% 33.63% Incl 11:40 $1.2018 5,000 $1.2099 7,700
11:40 $1.2100 7,700 11:46 $1.2099 4,000
11:47 $1.2040 5,000 12:02 $1.2090 5,000
12:15 $1.2000 8,600 12:17 $1.2000 18,000
12:19 $1.2086 8,000 12:31 $1.2001 7,000
12:53 $1.2099 10,000 12:55 $1.2056 7,500
14:22 157443 $1.1900 $1.2100 $188,653.55 $1.1982 7.60% 35.70% Incl 13:22 $1.2000 4,900 14,793 10,000
13:39 $1.2000 4,000
14:38 115626 $1.1600 $1.2000 $136,924.40 $1.1842 5.58% 54.60% Incl 14:34 $1.1800 5,000 6,000 6,100 6,100
14:56 41921 $1.1600 $1.1700 $48,810.30 $1.1643 2.02% 33.33%
15:24 316829 $1.0900 $1.1650 $355,398.49 $1.1217 15.30% 34.59% Incl 14:57 $1.1100 6,320 $1.1500 7,000
14:58 $1.1200 8,300 15:01 $1.1100 8,968
15:02 $1.1300 9,000 15:12 $1.1300 8,000
15:14 $1.1188 4,700 15:18 $1.1100 7,000
15:19 $1.1100 11,000 15:24 $1.1000 9,100
15:24 $1.1000 10,000 $1.1100 8,400
15:34 118492 $1.0950 $1.1300 $131,275.42 $1.1079 5.72% 35.34% Incl 15:26 $1.0999 5,000 15:27 $1.1000 4,200
15:31 $1.1212 5,000 $1.1299 4,000
15:33 $1.1100 5,000 15:34 $1.1100 5,900
15:52 86364 $1.1000 $1.1100 $95,395.91 $1.1046 4.17% 35.82% Incl 15:35 $1.1000 4,200 5,325
15:47 $1.1099 4,900 $1.1100 4,900
16:00 163175 $1.0900 $1.1200 $180,039.21 $1.1034 7.88% 37.44% Incl 15:53 $1.1000 10,000 15:54 $1.0991 7,000
15:59 $1.1200 8,100 $1.1000 4,200
15:59 $1.1000 5,000 $1.1100 4,271 5,500
17:15 550 $1.1100 $1.1200 $611.00 $1.1109 0.03% 37.45%
On my minimal chart, there's nothing worth mentioning that wouldn't be expected.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ _Volume_
Today -5.19% -17.42% -6.52% -17.29% 1457.44%
Prior 0.75% 0.00% 0.36% -1.48% -9.03%
On my one-year chart I can't imagine anything worth saying for at least few days and maybe much longer.
The oscillators I watch all weakened, have all below neutral and everything with a demarcation for oversold is in oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1821 and $1.5025 ($1.2852 and $1.4425 yesterday) are diverging.
All in, nothing to say at this time
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, hallelujah! Does it matter today? Can't say. Those above larger trades must have been a lot of inter/intra-broker trades as the short percentage went to just above the low end of my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage is not as weak as one might expect under the circumstances. I surmise this is because the radical drop in range offered juicy attractive covering buy prices for both shorters who might be so inclined and MMs that must have processed quite a few sell orders today.
This latter item is what prompted me to open a small trading block. I suspect MMs will be now short-term long and we might have a day or two of price slightly above the current range as they unload their low-cost shares - they won't want the market to drop until they have successfully done so.
I hope I'm right. I'm not looking for a large gain, just a small improvement will suffice.
The spread, if we were in a down trend ... Wait! We are aren't we? Normally this spread would tell us more downside is coming. I can't say it's not doing so now but with the pricing of the shares and warrants in the financing announcement I think we've had a little overshoot. If that's the case, this spread is really confirming that rather than projecting coming attractions.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the second day at 15 negative and 9 positive moves (small comfort, that). Change since 09/14 is -$0.2297, -16.23%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6859%, -0.2351%, -0.6179%, -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, -1.5840%, -1.6661%, and -2.1769%.
All in, in extremely abnormal scenarios I wouldn't trust any of this farther than I can throw DJ.
Bill
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