Wednesday, October 19, 2016 1:21:04 PM
The issues that drive these stocks are easy to ascertain:
1. Patent validity is obviously the key risk, so ptab, markman, dcourts, and CAFC all play a role. As does (for most patent plays) time given costs of legal bills.
2. To the extent those risk factors are derisked, the price tends to reflect it.
3. Those that understand how much a ptab ruling, district court ruling tend to mean relative to appeal chances, while considering the specific nuances of any case tend to buy heavily when a "good play" is out there that makes it past the ptab. Often for some cases that's the biggest risk, as it is here.
4. Moreover, theta burn or time risk is not a factor here given the contingency aspect of legal fees, the fact the converts have been taken out, and operating costs are very low. Moreover, if through the ptab the stock will rise, and thus further minimizing the dilutive effect of the 50k or so per quarter of operating costs.
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