You are absolutely right about the quarter's ending. Where I go down a different path is this:
Fundamentals paint a picture of reality. Market sentiment is the only market reality I find especially meaningful. When I'm able to successfully predict how, where and why it does as I expect, I will almost always make money.
Case in point:
Today, news came out on MDR. Of and by itself, the news was somewhat neutral...there was an upgrade of sorts issued by an analytics outfit stating they were issuing a "market perform" rating on MDR. Now, we know that, of itself, ought not factor into any ongoing valuation, right? Yet it most definitely did...
I sensed this would serve as a sort of reaffirmation and create something of a bottom although a false one built on sentiment alone.
My antennae were on high alert as I watched MDR climb. When it reached $5.37, I sold 500 shares. I then reached for $5.38, $5.39 and finally---$5.40---in increments of 500 shares each. Things stalled at $5.39 so I wound up selling several tranches at that level. My reasoning was simple: Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring but I know this much: My cost basis of $4.65 positioned me nicely as I repatriated some capital plus hefty gains for redeployment elsewhere as opportunities arise.
Should tomorrow be a continuation of today's healthy rise, I'll sell into it as I still have nearly 4,000 shares available.
MDR has not been a great performer over the past several months. I'd be foolish in my mind were I not willing to settle for a 16% gain. Most of these shares were held for just a few months, so I could annualize it at something close to 50%.
Whatever happens in a BOD disclosure regarding performance won't likely outdo today's change in valuation as perceived by the general market.
So while I couldn't debate a point based on time that will be recognized as having contributed to a stock's perceived value, my investing strategy will always factor in market sentiment as manifested by trading volume, price fluctuations, and sentiment operating in excess in a day's closing moments. In fact, my last trade occurred during the last minute of the day's session.
Quarterly numbers may, in fact, alter the public view of MDR. But I'll take my 16% to the bank any day. In fact, more often than not, stocks showing great numbers for a preceding quarter so often sell off on the news whereas it's the rumor (sentiment) that really tells the story that investors want to hear. I'm a fundamentals guy through and through but I raked in about $2,700 today in pure gains without having to sit on the edge of my chair as I await numbers. There was one number staring at me today---$5.39. That was a lot more than I paid so I'm happy.
