RE: AVIR
Hey Bladerunner,
I would say AVIR was a "screaming buy" below $1.40 and would describe it as a "buy" at the current level of ~$1.70 (for full disclosure, I'm quick to ring the register with this recent biotech run, and I had a position personally initiated at ~$1.35 that I finished selling at ~$1.68). From my study of the Vapendavir trial and its design (endpoints, trial participant mix, etc.), I see a >50% of it succeeding. It's certainly nice that the company has three assets in P2 from an investor risk management perspective. Monetizing the Inavir/Relenza royalty streams seemed very logical to me. On the flip side, trial timelines seem to be consistently being pushed back, and some would certainly take the INHX blowout post-acqusition as a negative readthrough on a portion of the AVIR management team. In summary, I'd say it's a buy, but not describe it as a top buy at this point in time. Frankly though, I'm not finding much out there that looks extremely cheap.
