Energy MLPs typically lose significant unit-value in the weeks immediately following having gone ex-Distribution. While many observers are stymied over the fact that ALDW gave up a couple of dollars late last week, I'm of the opinion that what we're seeing is not much more than part of the diminution process. Sure, we don't know exactly who or what is directly responsible for the valuation-lowering event but I'm thinking---who cares? Is the stock worth less because someone or some institution has decided to move some money around, into something else?
The stock is growing in value to me. I've been buying as the price has dropped. My sentiments haven't changed one iota. My resolve remains solidly on track. Thanks to having let go of a few hundred NGL units here and there with nice gains included, I'm well positioned to capitalize on opportunities to pick up ALDW units on the cheap. And that's exactly what I've been doing.
ALDW may have lost some appeal in the eye or minds of other investors but we'll never know what prompted portfolio changes. At the same time I most definitely do know this:
1. Nothing fundamental has changed things insofar as I'm concerned.
2. With a paper loss showing on the books, the opportunity here---and now!---is greater than it has been over previous months during which time I was accumulating my position of 8,000 units. Right now I'm buying units for less than my cost to-date. That may not mean much to anybody else but to me it means a lot.....as in beating any system defining things that work for me. I was willing and happy to pay $10 and more for these same units now costing me around $8.50! What's not to like?
3. Underscoring everything is the fact that there is nothing out there in the world of earth-shaking news establishing a justifiable change in sentiment resulting in a lowering of unit value! That tells me this greater-than-usual volatility will prove to have been nothing more than a blip on a screen soon to be forgotten as it means nothing, really. However, to me it definitely means I can buy on the cheap and hold for the rise and eventual profits.
Now---just how long a holding period are we talking about, pray tell? We're two months away from guidance indicating material events the BOD deems fitting for the current quarter. Roughly speaking, I figure we might remain in this wishy-washy period for a month or so more with bargain moments to be feasted upon by those of us with a few dollars to spend and the guts to make meaningful moves. And this month is to be followed by another, this one to give investors room to get on board. If the crack spread moves strongly to the upside, watch out! The rush to climb on board will be exhilarating.
Good luck, everybody!
AI
