Just added 166 units to round out the total position at 9,600 units with a cost basis of $9.73. This has me underwater nearly $12K but I do not believe it will remain the case for long. Sure, oil is not where we energy buffs would like but life is far from perfect for most of us. So, what---me complain?
Tomorrow I'll be on the hunt once again, watching for opportunities to continue adding units at a price well beneath my overall cost basis. I'm a nut as much as anybody for nicely rounded numbers, so the magic number is 10,000 units. But with a ways to go before guidance comes forth from this MLP regarding the quarter's distribution---if there even is one!---anything can happen. So this is the time to peer into the crystal balls, wear them on our shirtsleeves or walk awkwardly with knees crossed. Obviously I'm pushing a lot of uncertainty to the side while focusing on positives.
This is about risk as much as possibility with not a lot of attention tracking winds of probability. Nevertheless, I'm struck by a couple of thoughts I can't ignore:
1. Day to day chaotic moves are just that and nothing more. The market is full of chaos due to uncertainties that are very much vital to the existential side of things when we discuss market gyrations. To be sure, there are few if any certainties on Wall Street. But we can survey ourselves from within and determine how far we are prepared to go in support of our intellectual and intuitive means as they comingle our energies.
2. As I build a fairly healthy position in a lesser known refiner such as ALDW, I do so in full knowledge of having prospered nicely enough in the past. That secures me. And if I should be wrong now? I'll survive as I do not permit margin (debt) to dog me during sleeping hours or weekends. Sure, I may lose a big chunk of my investment now amounting to $93,400. Let's suppose for the heck of it---the stock drops to $7.50 from today's $8.50 close. That would strip me of another $1/unit or $9,600. Frankly, with nearly a tenth of a million $ already committed and operating on a deficit basis already, what might another $9,600 mean to me?
It means very little. The damage has already been done and the add-on $9,600 merely cements the overall transactional value.
This is not a big deal! Losses are real and already sustained. What I have in their place is an opportunity to restore some or all of that loss as I own a paper claim that exists if only on the books. I might even show a profit, given time.
Let's see now---how many years will it take? lolol
